Long-range weather outlooks are predicting an overall milder winter with more precipitation — which may or may not include more snow.
The National Weather Service and Old Farmer’s Almanac recently released their winter outlooks and there’s hope for Arlington snow lovers — though another rainy, snow-starved winter remains a possibility.
NWS is predicting above average precipitation and above average temperatures for the D.C. area., though the confidence for both is below 50%.
The Farmer’s Almanac, meanwhile, agrees that it will be an overall milder winter, but thinks that a colder start to 2024 will bring more snow than usual. From its Atlantic Corridor forecast:
Winter precipitation and snowfall will be above normal (2 to 3 inches above monthly averages). The snowiest periods will occur at the end of December, late January, and mid-February. We don’t expect a white Christmas. […]
Winter temperatures will be above normal overall. Specifically, December is slightly above average temps; temperatures for January and February are below average. The coldest spell will run from late January into mid-February.
Making the forecast tricky for meteorologists is the expected presence of El Niño, the atmospheric phenomenon linked to warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific.
The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang notes that while some El Niño winters end up as snow busts, others bring blizzards.
One recent forecast called for the current El Niño to become a “super” El Niño this winter. Super El Niños are those that produce the most intense ocean warming and often the most extreme weather impacts worldwide.
“Washington’s least snowy winters — 1997-1998 and 1972-1973 — both came during super El Niños,” added Capital Weather Gang’s Ian Livingston. “A similar strength event in 2015-2016 was mainly snowless, but punctuated by a historic blizzard in January.”
After a weak season for snow last year — and below-average snowfall six of the past seven years — ARLnow readers say they’re ready for a winter wonderland. Some 62% of respondents to our poll last month said “bring on the snow” when asked about the prospect of a big winter storm.
The Capital Weather Gang and local TV stations typically release their Washington winter outlooks around mid-November.