This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!
Question: How is Arlington real estate performing halfway through 2018?
Answer: If you’ve followed the news lately, it’s hard to miss reports that housing inventory is dangerously low and prices are quickly increasing across the country. While Arlington is experiencing the same issues with low inventory, we’re seeing some interesting behavior in prices.
If you simply look at average price change across Arlington, values actually dropped since last year’s strong appreciation. However, if you take a deeper look (see table below), you’ll find that condos actually jumped 9.1%, single family homes crossed the $1M mark by increasing 2.5%, and only the townhouse market lost ground.
So how did average prices in Arlington dropped when the two highest-volume housing types increased in value? There was a dramatic shift in volume from more expensive single-family and townhouse purchases (-14.8% and 18%, respectively) to less expensive condos (12.4%). Who said Millennials don’t buy homes? Hint: media outlets looking for clicks who ignored the fact that as of 2015 more than half of Millennials were still 25 or younger!
Comparison of First-Half Performance
Below is a chart comparing real estate sale statistics for the first six months over each of the last five years. I removed distressed sales, Cooperatives and age-restricted housing. The Townhouse category also includes duplexes, semi-detached and other similar homes. The Net Sold Price is the purchase price less any seller credits to buyer closing costs. Some highlights below:
- Finally, real appreciation in the condo market, driven by a remarkable increase in purchase volume
- Demand indicators moved in favor of sellers across the board, with decreased days on market (faster sale cycles) and purchase prices being negotiated closer to the original asking price (less buyer leverage)
- Notable increases in the purchase volume of condos and decreased volume of townhouses and single-family sales. Does this indicate a youth movement in Arlington homeownership and families choosing to buy outside of Arlington where the dollar goes further? Or is it simply due to buyer frustration at the lack of choices in the higher priced townhouse and single-family market keeping eager buyers on the sideline?
The decrease in average Arlington home price is misleading and a great example of why macro-level real estate data is often ineffective and purchase/sale decisions should be made using micro-level data personalized to your sub-market.
The Never-Ending Story of Low Inventory
The inventory problem in Arlington is where things get interesting and confusing.





















