
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!
Last week I wrote about breaking news in the real estate industry that Zillow was underwater on their home buying/selling business, Zillow Offers. Hours after I published my article, to the surprise of many, Zillow announced it was shutting down Zillow Offers and reducing their workforce by 25% as a result.
The purpose of last week’s article was to discuss what Zillow’s problems meant for the real estate market and Zillow. For those who didn’t read and don’t intend to, the bottom line was that Zillow’s issues are not an indicator of trouble in the broader real estate market or for Zillow’s business overall, they’re simply a bad bet by Zillow that will cost them about $1B since they started Zillow offers in 2018.
However, ARLnow Commenter “Arlington Robin” made a great point that while Zillow’s issues may not be indicative of trouble in the nationwide/D.C. area real estate market, it will likely create problems in local markets like Phoenix where Zillow will be selling a lot of homes, likely with a priority on selling quickly vs extracting top dollar.
Background
Zillow entered the iBuying business in April 2018 (launched in Phoenix) with a home buying program called Zillow Offers in which they’d quickly purchase homes using their internal pricing algorithm (built off the Zestimates algorithm) directly from homeowners for cash. The incentive structure is simple: fast, cash, reliable, no list prep. In 2019 I wrote a column on iBuying and discussed the approach, pros and cons.
Since 2018, Zillow Offers expanded to over 20 markets around the country (mostly in the south and out west) and bought tens of thousands of homes. Three weeks ago, Zillow announced it was freezing home buying through 2021 to focus on selling ~7,000 homes they had accumulated and last week an analyst at KeyBanc found that 2/3 are selling for less than their purchase price at an average discount of 4.5%.
Soon after these reports surfaced and hours after I wrote my article about it, Zillow announced they were shutting down their iBuying program completely (although they still have thousands of homes to sell).
Zillow vs iBuying Competitors
Zillow wasn’t the only one in the business of large scale iBuying. Opendoor and Offerpad both operate in this space with better margins and, at least for now, do not seem to be heading for the same fate as Zillow. Although, based on my reading of their earnings statements, they’re both operating at a loss, like many tech start-ups.
Even though Zillow has access to more resources and data, there are a few good reasons why Zillow has tapped out.
Setting the right offer price (high enough to buy homes at scale, low enough to make money) and forecasting the market 3-6 months out are critical to the success of an iBuying business. Zestimates, Zillow’s market valuation tool that drives these buying/forecasting decisions, was designed to attract and engage consumers, not to drive a massive home buying and selling business. Companies built around iBuying designed their pricing algorithms specifically for the purpose of maximizing margins in buying/selling real estate at scale.
Furthermore, Zillow needs to protect its core business from the high volatility of iBuying at scale ($1B in losses in 3.5 years). Zillow investors likely have less of an appetite for the risks associated with large scale iBuying, but the investors in iBuying focused businesses like Opendoor and Offerpad know exactly what they’re signing up for and are likely more willing to accept early losses.
As a large publicly traded company, Zillow couldn’t just ask itself whether they could make it in iBuying, but whether the payoff in making it in the iBuying business was worth the risk of compromising its core business and brand. Clearly, Zillow leadership decided that it was not worth it.
Opendoor and Offerpad both have earnings calls scheduled for this Wednesday, November 10 so it’ll be very interesting to see how their numbers compare to Zillow’s and what they have to say about Zillow’s exit from their business.
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