Feature

Ask Eli: Impact of New Homes on Housing Prices

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How much of Arlington’s high housing prices are attributed to new homes?

Answer: So far this year, the average sold price of a single-family detached (SFD) home in Arlington is $1,146,000, but if you remove the sales of new homes, which are averaging $1,810,000 in 2020, the average price for a SFD home in Arlington drops 7.4% to $1,060,000. Since 2015, the average price of a new SFD home in Arlington has increased by 21.6%, while the average price of resale homes has increase 25.3%.

Important note: I removed one sale from the 2015-2020 sales data; a January 2020 sale of 409/411 Chain Bridge Road for $45M, because it is such an extreme anomaly in Arlington real estate data that it skews everything else too high. This is important to understand because most likely in other assessments of Arlington real estate data you see, this data point will be included and it will make it seem like the average sale price in Arlington, especially 22207, has increased much more than it actually has.

New Home Prices vs Resale Prices

The charts below compare the annual change in the average price of a new SFD home and a resale SFD home. The first chart shows all Arlington SFD sales and the second chart is just for the 22207 zip code which accounts for 54% of all new SFD home sales since 2015.

I was a little surprised by how uncorrelated average prices were between new and resale homes some years, I would have expected a strong linkage.

One data point that stands out is the huge jump in new home prices from 2017 to 2018, which seems to be tied to a significant drop in the number of transactions (lower supply) in 2018. It highlights just how sensitive the new home market is to supply swings and I wonder if that forecasts less growth in the future as more homes built in the last 5-8 years come up for resale, competing with similar new homes.

I also wonder if a pause in buying by builders in the first half of this year may lead to a material shortage of new homes in 2021 and drive prices up for new homes selling next year.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

Arlington Startup Aims to Help People Build Connections With Homeless Neighbors

By Vernon Miles

Sponsored by Monday Properties and written by ARLnow, Startup Monday is a weekly column that profiles Arlington-based startups and their founders, plus other local technology happenings. Monday Properties remains firmly committed to the health, safety and well-being of its employees, tenants and community. This week, Monday Properties is proudly featuring 1000 and 1100 Wilson (The Rosslyn Tower).

Givr started with a sermon that founder Mark Ferguson just couldn’t get out of his head.

While attending church in 2019, Ferguson said his pastor gave everyone two minutes and told them to write down the names of eight neighbors. He couldn’t, and neither could many of his fellow parishioners.

The second part of the idea came when Ferguson switched jobs and started walking to work in Arlington.

“It coincided with me changing jobs and walking to work,” Ferguson said. “For the next few months, I was thinking about [the sermon]. I downloaded a neighborhood app, I was inviting neighbors to dinner. But as I was walking to work, I realized my viewpoint on who was my neighbor changed.”

Ferguson said he began to see the same people on the streets around Clarendon, and in talking to coworkers and friends said that many of them saw the same people as well, but didn’t know their names. After Ferguson was laid off from a venture capital firm in March, he said he felt an obligation to do something about the idea that had been rattling around in his head.

With Givr, subscribers can receive two care packages per month to distribute to neighbors dealing with homelessness. The packages are $22 per month, or less with other subscription plans, and contain food, clothing, hygiene items, and seasonal needs like winter clothing or sunscreen.

Givr was started not just as a way to help people experiencing homelessness — local nonprofits like Arlington Food Assistance Center (AFAC) are experienced and uniquely situated for that — but as a way of connecting people to their neighbors.

“When you look at us you might say ‘this is a way to distribute aid’ as the actual product or something, but we don’t think about it like that,” Ferguson said. “We will measure bags and care packages distributed, but what we really care about and track on our end is names learned. It’s less about how much aid we can provide vs how much community we can build.”

It isn’t a new idea, Ferguson acknowledged. He said his girlfriend has been packing bags like this for months with items like socks and granola bars, to be thrown into her car and distributed. Churches and rotary clubs put similar packages together. What Ferguson said he hopes Givr can accomplish is taking the assembly stage out of it and using the startup model to spread the implementation.

“What we do is we assemble these care packages and ship them on a monthly basis to givers who sign up for our service,” Ferguson said. “You sign up and we’d send you a care package, which would include items that people experiencing homelessness really and truly need.”

As he and his co-founders started putting together the project, one of the big lessons Ferguson said he learned was that food is not always the most essential need.

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Neighborhood Spotlight: 5 More Amazing Arlington Parks

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This content was written and sponsored by The Keri Shull Team, Arlington’s top producing residential real estate team.

On this week’s edition of the Neighborhood Spotlight, join Keri Shull, founder of the Keri Shull Team, as she gives you a tour of 5 more of our favorite family-friendly playgrounds in Arlington.

Between amazing food, drinks and entertainment, there are plenty of great things to do in Arlington — but not all of it is family friendly. Luckily, when it comes to finding fun for the whole family, we are here to help! So take a look below to learn about 5 more of our favorite recreational parks!

Lyon Village Park 

Sitting just south of Lee Highway, Lyon Village Park is a cute, 2-acre space that offers tons of fun activities. Families can enjoy their snacks at the picnic pavilion — and with so much fun to be had, you and yours are sure to work up an appetite!

This gorgeous park is great for toddlers and big kids alike, with enjoyable activities for all ages. In addition to spaces to place tennis and basketball, the park’s sprayground is a perfect way to escape the summer heat.

Rocky Run Park

Rocky Run Park is a great option for school-aged children and toddlers alike, with plenty of fun to be had across its 2 acres. Although there are distinct spaces for each age group, they are close enough together that parents or guardians can keep an eye on all their kids at once.

Little athletes are sure to fall in love with Rocky Run Park — in addition to a full-sized basketball court, the recreational area also features a turf field that is perfect for playing soccer or football. Rocky Run Park also has some convenient luxuries, such as public bathrooms and off-street parking options, that are much appreciated.

At the time of publication, Rocky Run Park is closed for ongoing repairs — so make sure you check the Arlington Parks and Recreation website regularly to see when you can come enjoy this great space!

Hayes Park

Located off of I-66 near the Virginia Square neighborhood is Hayes Park, another one of the best parks in Arlington. Hayes Park is the perfect place to enjoy a steamy summer day, with a great sprayground, fun play structures and courts for playing tennis or basketball.

Hayes Park is also fenced in for ultimate peace of mind, and the spot has an off-street parking lot and public bathrooms. This makes Hayes a great place to spend an afternoon — and you can pack a lunch or snack to enjoy at one of the picnic tables!

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Your Beermonger: Takes You Back, Don’t It?

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This sponsored column is written by Steve Quartell, beermonger at Arrowine (4508 Lee Highway). Sign up for the email newsletter and receive exclusive discounts and offers. Order from Arrowine’s expanding online store for curbside pickup.

I’ve been thinking — when you can’t go places in space you can always go places in time. Beer is a lot of things to a lot of people and call me sentimental or overly nostalgic, but I’ve always seen it as a time machine. It slows down time, it steals away time from tomorrow if you have one too many and it takes you back.

In Tasting Beer, (cicerone alert) Randy Mosher talks about the neuroscience behind taste and smell and the double redundancy of the nerves transmitting taste sensory information to our brains. And how beer hacks directly into that hardwiring. It’s a connection so potent you can hold it in your hand every time you open a bottle. I love beers that bring you back. There’s a lot we have in store right now that fire synapses for me immediately — but there’s one that I can’t ever get in store or ever again.

Fall 2007, Chicago. About 11 at night and eleven friends and I are walking out of a theatre in Roscoe Village after having talked our way into a sold-out show called “The Magnificents,” presented by the truly amazing House Theatre Company. Nine theatre majors in town for auditions near the midpoint of senior year, high on a show that lived up to its name, en route to a bar around the corner called The Hungry Brain.

The night air is cool and damp as an evening thunderstorm rolls in. We turn the corner from Western to Belmont headed towards the lake. The wind and rain pick up, and we huddle together, walking faster and laughing at the timing of this cool shower during our five minute walk.

The Hungry Brain is familiar and new all at once. I quickly scan the familiar beer brands but pause a moment on a distinct telephone tap handle; it’s calling me.  I take my first sip of Goose Island 312 and am blown away by how different it is from what I’m used to. Fruit, lemon peel and light pepper notes with an aromatic sensation I’d only picked up on hikes and walking along midwestern prairies — earthy, floral, piney but not aggressively so.

I snap out of my beer inspired reverie and a friend asks what I’m drinking. To date, my go-to beers had been Keystone and Bud, so lacking any distinct descriptors I holler, “Dunno, but we’re drinking it all night!”

We take turns bringing pitchers of that unfiltered wheat ale back to mismatched leather couches. Playing quarters, laughing at jokes that made more sense freshman year and putting on songs we’ve listened to before, but not in this place, not in this time. We talk about what, where and who we will be after graduation, and we hold on to what we are now.

We all have stories like this one, “Fall 2007. Chicago” — a memorable experience paired with the perfect, memorable beer. These beers turn into time machines in miniature, they take us back to moments when all we needed was the pint in front of us and the people around us.

Opening up a 312 was dialing in “Fall 2007. Chicago.” no matter where I was. The smell of fall leaves on the sidewalk, a thunderstorm coming in, the electricity of friends going from one incredible experience they watched as an audience — to another they lived as a community of twelve.

I can’t dial up that time machine ever again, at least not easily. There are worse things a brewery can do than get bought out, but that doesn’t change the fact that the recipe for 312 is forever changed. It took six batches of homebrew to zero in on something that “hit” like the original, and I just don’t have the energy for that anymore.

And, to throw salt in my wounds, the Hungry Brain as I briefly knew it closed in 2014.

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Open Houses in Arlington This Weekend

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Looking for a home? There are plenty of houses and condos open for viewing this weekend.

Check out the Arlington Realty website for a full list of homes for sale and open houses in Arlington. Here are a few highlights:

3542 N. Dickerson Street
5 BD/5 BA, 1 half bath single-family home
Agent: McEnearney Associates, Inc.
Listed: $1,965,000
Open: Virtual Tour

 

1610 N. Queen Street #251
2 BD/2 BA, 1 half bath condo
Agent: Kw Metro Center
Listed: $1,499,000
Open: Saturday 2-4 p.m.

 

879 N. Harrison Street
4 BD/4 BA single-family home
Agent: Re/Max Realty Group
Listed: $1,100,000
Open: Sunday 1-3:30 p.m.

 

4730 24th Street N.
4 BD/3 BA, 1 half bath villa/townhouse
Agent: Re/Max Allegiance
Listed: $985,000
Open: Sunday 2-4 p.m.

 

5120 3rd Street N.
3 BD/2 BA single-family home
Agent: Compass
Listed: $850,000
Open: Sunday 1-4 p.m.

 

3409 Wilson Boulevard #610
2 BD/2 BA condo
Agent: Optime Realty
Listed: $699,900
Open: Sunday 2-4 p.m.

 

103 N. George Mason Drive #130-2
3 BD/2 BA condo
Agent: Kw Metro Center
Listed: $554,990
Open: Sunday 2-4 p.m.

Just Listed in Arlington

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Just Listed highlights Arlington properties that just came on the market within the past week. This feature is written and sponsored by Andors Real Estate Group.

Huge news this week in the lending industry — mortgage rates dropped again to another fresh new historical low, the seventh time this year.

The national average for a 30-year fixed is now below 3% for the first time ever. If you didn’t refinance earlier this year to get a great new mortgage in the low 3’s, your procrastination will have paid off — now you can get one that starts with a 2! And the 15-year is below 2.5%.

My recommendation — call Jawad Hamandi (703) 587-6059 of Intercoastal Mortgage today to talk about refinancing. The Andors Real Estate Group has been working with Jawad for 22 years and he has handled our personal mortgages as well as countless mortgages for our clients. We know you’ll enjoy working with him and also enjoy the savings a refinance can provide!

It was a ridiculously busy week in Arlington as our housing market continues to rock. Optimism about an economic recovery coupled with our historic insulation and resistance to economic downturns in Arlington have led to a bullish market that shows ample resilience.

Sellers listed some 123 properties for sale this week while buyers ratified 71 contracts, 48 of which were on properties listed since just last week. These numbers are absolutely crazy for Arlington, especially in July! With that many new properties in one week, even while buyers are ratifying over 70 properties, we’re still going to see inventory continue to build.

There are currently 340 homes for sale in Arlington, 31 more than last week. 133 are detached homes, 31 are townhouses/semi-detached and 176 are condos. Average days on market (DOM) is 47 and median DOM is 26.

The median list price of currently available properties is $849,975, while the average is $1,025,777 (both about $50k less than last week). Median price has stayed below $1M for a month now, and this is the lowest average price for active properties since I started tracking it months ago.

Last year for the same week, sellers listed 49 homes and buyers ratified 32 contracts

Click here to search currently available Arlington real estate. Call the Andors Real Estate Group today at (703) 203-1117 to talk more about buying or selling Arlington real estate. Below are eight homes that are new this week that I think you might like to check out.

Boring Title: Josh Ross From Ross Residential

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Title insurance is boring, but Allied Title & Escrow is here to decode the jargon and make it (somewhat) more interesting. This biweekly feature will explore the mundane (but very necessary!) world of title insurance while sharing interesting stories of two friends’ entrepreneurial careers.

For this week’s edition of Boring Title, we have two segments:

  • An interview with DMV Realtor Josh Ross of Ross Residential
  • Brief market update

We interviewed Josh Ross of Ross Residential, who is a real estate agent licensed in D.C., MD and VA. Josh gives a brief background of himself and Ross Residential, talks about the impact of the pandemic on real estate, why he chooses to partner with developers and more! Want to learn more about Ross Residential? Check them out at www.rossrem.com.

July Market Statistics (From What We’ve Seen)

  • 25% increase in home purchase price from June
  • 14% increase in purchases as a percent of total deals closed
  • 11% increase in purchases opened in first half of July compared to first half of June

Thus far in July, we continue to see homes selling quickly and for record high prices, a reflection of the high buyer demand in the D.C. area housing market. Fairfax and Alexandria reported the highest median monthly sales price in a decade in June 2020, largely due to the limited inventory of listings.

However, it appears seller confidence is rising, and the market could begin to normalize. Purchases as a percentage of total deals closed rose in July thus far. We expect this percentage to continue to rise as the market continues to rebound as sellers continue to enter the market.

Have questions related to title insurance? Email Latane and Matt at [email protected]. Want to use Allied Title & Escrow when you buy a home? Tell your agent when you buy a house to write in Allied Title & Escrow as your settlement company!

Biz Talk: A Look Back on Economic Development in FY20

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This article was written by Marian Marquez, Director of Business Investment for Arlington Economic Development.

It’s the end of Arlington County’s fiscal year, a time when we look back at our activities over the past twelve months to reflect on our collective wins, challenges and opportunities.

As we step cautiously into a new year, we know already that it will be like no other and I find myself trying to remember where we were at this time last year… riding the momentum of a solid year of wins and the excitement of welcoming Amazon’s second headquarters to Arlington, the future was bright!

After working together as a region to win this historic economic development project, relationships among the localities had never been stronger and we were getting ready to announce the formation of a regional economic development organization, the Northern Virginia Economic Development Alliance (NOVA EDA). With a reshuffling of economic development leadership in Northern Virginia we were at a unique point in time to join forces to make this great region stronger than ever.

At this time last year, Arlington’s vacancy rate was steadily trending downward and was around 16.5% from its peak of 21% in 2015 when we began an aggressive effort to market Arlington, further diversify the economy into fast growing sectors, and build out our tech ecosystem. With a global spotlight on our region, the State of Virginia’s over $1 billion investment in the education system and tech talent pipeline, plus a newly formed regional alliance to market the heck out of our assets, we believed the only way was up!

When I think back to what our perceived challenges were at the time, they feel rather luxurious — after all, we were still able to meet with prospective companies in person and companies were still able to occupy office space, literally.

During the first half of this fiscal year we worked hard to attract and retain companies in our target sectors such as Block.One, a blockchain company that placed its global headquarters in Rosslyn, as well as tech startups Scoutbee and Amify in Crystal City. We also saw significant wins within our foundational sectors with the retention the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office in Shirlington and Raytheon in Rosslyn, and notable expansions among several key employers including Nestlé, Mastercard and Evolent Health.

We watched our vacancy rate drop further, dipping below 15%, the lowest it’s been since 2012. In January 2020, I stepped up to lead our business investment with a focus on reengagement with strategic partners and restructuring the team to take a greater focus on engaging existing businesses. A few weeks later we welcomed our new Director, Telly Tucker, and two months later, on Friday, March 13, we all received stay-at-home orders.

Our team was gripped with a host of concerns, many of which we are still grappling with now: What will this mean for our business community, what will the future office market look like, what does this mean for the work that we do, what does the bottom line look like?

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Arlington Pet of the Week: Walter

By ARLnow.com
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Meet Arlington’s newest Pet of the Week, Walter, a 3 year old Bernese Mountain Dog who just moved to Arlington.

Here is what Walter had to say about his new life here in Arlington:

What’s up Arlington?! My name is Walter. I recently moved to Virginia from Michigan. My humans brought me here because of their jobs. As a Bernese Mountain Dog, I really miss the colder weather back in the mitten state. When it would snow, I would dig a hole and stay outside for hours. I also really miss my grandparents and cousins back in Michigan. Otherwise, I’m very happy with our move.

Arlington is so dog friendly. I go everywhere with my humans. I love how all of the restaurants and bars allow me to sit on their patios. We live near Circa and Bracket Room in Clarendon, so you can find me at one of those places most weekends. They treat me like a king by giving lots of pets and great food. Dennis at Bracket Room is the best because he sneaks me bacon. Everyone I’ve met in Arlington is so nice. The only complaint I have is that most people ask me how much I weigh. I’m not sure why. Just so everyone knows, I am 130 lbs. of pure muscle.

Here are some other fun facts for you: When my forever family got me, I was 10 weeks old and 10 lbs. Although I am huge, I think I’m a lapdog. I just turned 3 years old. People say I’m the happiest dog they’ve ever met. I like to smile. My favorite food is bacon. My favorite thing to do is to get pets from strangers. I love the dog park in Clarendon. I’m obsessed with tiny dogs. I hate ducks. I don’t chase any other animals besides ducks. I’m a momma’s boy. I don’t like swimming. I love sunsets. I have very good manners. And my Instagram page is This.Is.Walters.World. Look me up! Also, if you ever see me out, please say hi, and make sure there aren’t any ducks around!

Just Reduced Properties in Arlington

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Each week, “Just Reduced” spotlights properties in Arlington County whose price have been cut over the previous week. The market summary is crafted by Arlington Realty, Inc. Maximize your real estate investment with the team by visiting www.arlingtonrealtyinc.com or calling 703-836-6000 today!

Please note: While Arlington Realty, Inc. provides this information for the community, it may not be the listing company of these homes.

We have a yummy week ahead of us.

Today is National Hot Dog Day. Saturday is National Caviar Day. Sunday is National Ice Cream Day. And, as icing on this delicious week’s cake, Tuesday, July 21 is National Junk Food Day. By this point in quarantine/lockdown/the COVID madness, perhaps you are tired of the same ole crock-pot meal you’ve been churning out for months.

With so many fun culinary days ahead, it’s a perfect reminder to support our local restaurants when and where you can. They need us, now more than ever, to survive and there are safe ways to enjoy your favorite treats.

With many long-time local residents/natives on our staff, we know our restaurants are certainly a big part of what makes Arlington such a special place to call home.

And, when you’re ready to look for (or sell) your home, the team at Arlington Realty, Inc. is here for you through thick and thin. Now on to this week’s Just Reduced figures.

As of July 13, there are 171 detached homes, 39 townhouses and 181 condos for sale throughout Arlington County. In total, 23 homes experienced a price reduction in the past week:

Please note that this is solely a selection of Just Reduced properties available in Arlington County. For a complete list of properties within your target budget and specifications, contact Arlington Realty, Inc.

Ask Eli: New Construction Tips and Learning Opportunity

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: What recommendations do you have for somebody just beginning to consider building a home?

Answer: If you’re considering building a home and looking for a great educational opportunity, I’d like to invite you to a walk-through with the builder of a home that’s currently under construction (3196 N. Pollard Street). The builder, James McMullin, is a 3rd generation Arlington home builder. At the end of July, he’s offering two educational walk-throughs for small groups during the framing stage of construction to provide a peek behind the walls.

If you’re interested in attending, please email me at [email protected] (I promise you won’t get spammed with marketing!).

I sat down with James McMullin to outline the key phases of building a new home from acquisition through post-completion, along with some helpful tips at each stage.

Lot Acquisition

  • You can do this yourself or through a builder. A key competitive advantage for builders is a pipeline of quality lots.
  • If you acquire your own lot and find yourself in competition, it’s important to understand what type of offer terms you’re up against. Builders frequently offer existing homeowners months of free rent-back.
  • If you acquire a lot, make sure you establish a relationship with a builder before making an offer so they can provide necessary feedback on the feasibility of building the home you want either before making an offer or after (Study/Feasibility Study).
  • There are special loan programs available if you plan on acquiring your own lot. Troy Toureau ([email protected]) of McLean Mortgage is an excellent resource for construction loans.
  • Cost: Lots in Arlington are currently selling from $500,000 for less desirable lots/locations to well over $1,000,000.

Planning/Design

  • Designing the floor plan and elevations (exterior design) can be fun for some, but it’s easy for people to let this process drag on for months if they’re indecisive or unprepared.
  • Having a great architect who understands your vision and current home design trends is critical.
  • Full custom vs semi-custom: A fully custom home is designed from scratch to suit your tastes and will take much longer and cost much more in design fees. A semi-custom home uses a pre-designed floor plan and elevation template and you make small adjustments to suit your taste.
  • Cost: Semi-custom homes often range from zero design cost to a few thousand dollars, while fully custom homes usually cost tens of thousands in design fees.

Permitting

  • In Arlington, you will submit plans for County review/approval including demolition, building (architectural) and civil (engineering) before any work can begin.
  • It usually takes four months for permits to be approved by the County, assuming everything is submitted correctly.
  • Cost: Permit fees vary based on a number of factors but will generally be $25,000 + for new construction.

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