Opinion

Progressive Voice is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their organizations or ARLnow.com.

By Gizem Korkmaz

Local governments are awash in ever-growing streams of administrative data. From school registrations to property tax transactions and records of every call made to 911, these data provide opportunities to build insights to meet people’s needs and prepare for the future.

Making government work more effectively is a bedrock progressive value. Yet as communities take advantage of the information hidden within these streams of data, they need assistance on statistical methods and social science expertise.

Two examples in Arlington show how such data insights strengthened public safety initiatives. One pinpointed where smoke alarms were most needed — thus improving the likelihood of reducing home fire deaths. The other aimed to help reduce late night alcohol-related crime in bars and restaurants in Clarendon. The projects were done in collaboration with Arlington County Police and Fire Departments.

Our research group, the Social and Decision Analytics Division (SDAD)* of the University of Virginia, collaborates in such projects as we help communities use new techniques for collecting, combining and analyzing data. We are a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning statistics, economics, sociology and data science. We combine expertise to transform data into actionable knowledge and to support evidence-based policy.

Predicting Residential Smoke Alarm Need in Arlington

A smoke alarm maintained properly can be a life-saving resource. Yet three of every five home fire deaths were in homes that lacked a functioning early detection system, according to the National Fire Protection Association.

ACFD launched Operation Firesafe, an initiative that sends fire officials door-to-door offering free installations and repairs of smoke alarms. ACFD partnered with us to analyze data from early home visits and to determine where future visits should be directed to meet the greatest need.

We examined information on nearly 2,000 successful visits, showing 32 percent of those homes needed a new smoke alarm. Combining this information with publicly available housing data (value, age and location), our team developed a model to predict which homes were most likely to lack a functioning smoke alarm.

With predictions covering nearly 50,000 Arlington residences, fire officials can make targeted choices about where to canvass for smoke alarms. Initial estimates showed that older homes in the county’s southwestern section were far less likely to contain a working fire-detection system.

Evaluating the Impact of the Arlington Restaurant Initiative on Alcohol-Related Crimes in Clarendon

Arlington features appealing restaurants and nightlife destinations. Clarendon alone has more than 20 restaurants with ABC licenses and each year, approximately 580,000 patrons visit Clarendon between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m.

Visits are especially high at times such as St. Patrick’s Day and July 4, when alcohol consumption is quite high. This area has become a difficult issue for police to manage due to alcohol-related crimes such as public intoxication, DUI, disorderly conduct and sexual assault.

ACPD launched the Arlington Restaurant Initiative (ARI) which focuses on employee policies and effective practices for restaurants and nightlife to reduce the risk of alcohol-related disorder. By providing training and standards, the restaurant staff can intervene early before issues become problematic. The staff are given training to detect fake identifications, understand criminal/civil liability, public safety expectations and “Bar Bystander” sexual assault intervention training.

The ACPD Nightlife detail officers (those working Friday-Saturday late nights) use more personal, proactive interactions to nip potential alcohol-related crimes in the bud; for instance, spotting someone who is having trouble walking and sending them home in a cab right then. After two years, more interactions and fewer crimes were occurring in Clarendon, yet were the extra resources (such as the late-night overtime pay for police) justified?

To probe the social and economic costs, we needed to scrutinize the data more strategically. Master Police Officer Dimitrios Mastoras partnered with us to evaluate effectiveness of ARI. First, we used the data on interactions that the officers collected during ARI weekend activities in combination with the crime data to show a decrease in arrests over two years of the program. Our next step is to estimate the reduction in crime solely due to ARI and to calculate cost savings.

We keep looking for more ways that strategic data analysis can help local government be even more effective. What issues keep Arlington County leaders up at night? Data science based on good statistical and social science research methods can help solve some of these questions — and help governments do an even better job of serving their citizens.

Gizem Korkmaz is an Associate Professor at the Social and Decision Analytics Division (SDAD), in the Biocomplexity Institute & Initiative at the University of Virginia. The hallmark of her research is to blend her knowledge in traditional economics with big and messy data using tools from social network analysis and machine learning. She works with traditional as well as novel data sources such as social media, 911 calls and crime incidents to ask how we can make data useful for people and communities.

* Our research group was part of Virginia Tech until October 2018, when it moved to UVA with offices in Rosslyn.

Progressive Voice is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their organizations or ARLnow.com.

By Wilma Jones Killgo

Arlington neighborhoods are facing a multitude of challenges as the divergent interests of organizations and the people who live near them are decided by the County Board.

These decisions are determined after vigorous debate on websites, blogs and media, both social and traditional. Our communities are pressured to accept proposals with conditions and/or designs that are either completely out of character or blatantly unfair to their residents. The neighborhoods are labeled NIMBYs (Not in My Back Yard) by people who have little understanding of the issues.

As a civic activist and fourth-generation resident of the Halls Hill-High View Park community, I have been involved in my fair share of these projects, including the rebuilding of the Langston-Brown Community Center, the proposed relocation of Fire Station 8 and most recently, the Virginia Hospital Center expansion.

Everyone knows that things change. No one expects that development will stop. We see our communities growing and new people moving in. We see new businesses open and existing organizations expand. We know that Arlington is changing. We are not fighting change. All we ask for is fairness.

There were some rough times during the process for each of these projects but the outcomes for each were better for the neighborhoods involved than the original proposals. Those solutions were achieved because of major efforts by civically active neighbors and our citizens associations appealing to county staff, commission and Board members in multiple meetings and emails. On some occasions when the direct appeals fell on deaf ears, we had to resort to major media, like a Washington Post article to point out the inconsistencies and erroneous information being spread by people and organizations with obvious business interests in the organization’s preferred outcome.

It is troubling and to be honest, a bit exhausting to have to continually fight these battles. But I remain hopeful because I think the message may be starting to break through in some areas. One ray of hope was evidenced in the remarks of our new County Board Chairman, Christian Dorsey, in his message on Jan. 2, when he stated his goal to “imbue our public policy with an emphasis on equity.” If our leaders can help to shift the discussions, debates and decisions in this manner, it could help improve the relationships between the county, the organizations that are a part of our communities and the residents who live and want to thrive in the neighborhoods every day.

Now let’s talk about what exactly this looks like. What does “an emphasis on equity” look like to me?

My initial hope is that county staff begins being neutral as they work on requests from organizations that seek to enter our communities or expand within them. Currently, community activists feel as if we must fight the organization leaders AND county staff, who it seems often support the organizations’ requests with little consideration for how it impacts the community.

For example in September 2018, we secured a deferment and a motion from the County Board to have the Virginia Hospital Center expansion walkways to the Halls Hill-High View Park community redesigned. These areas were characterized by one neighbor as “an alley and a tunnel.” They had multiple pedestrian dangers and safety concerns (near medical waste facilities, etc.). The Neighborhood Task Force spent three years asking the county staff to support this effort and received no support. Due to pleas from residents at what was to be the final meeting on this expansion, the community was finally given equity.

In addition, at two meetings with county staff during these discussions, I was told that the staff members were getting tired of all the meetings with the community. I pointed out that they were being paid with our tax money to attend while many of the community members were using their annual leave to take valuable time from our day jobs.

There are many areas where equity can be addressed in Arlington County government decision-making. But from my view, it starts at the ground level and that is with county staff. I’ve said this to each County Board member in 2018, and I stand on my opinion.

Wilma Jones Killgo is a fourth-generation resident of the Halls Hill-High View Park community. She is serving her third term as president of the neighborhood civic association, the John M. Langston Citizens Association. She is the author (under her maiden name of Wilma Jones) of the historic memoir, My Halls Hill Family: More Than a Neighborhood. Learn more at HallsHill.com.