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Ask Eli: Interest rate forecasts and new loan limits

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: What are current forecasts for mortgage rates in 2023 and beyond?

Answer: Happy New Year everybody!

A few weeks ago, I posted a “Beyond the Headlines” deep dive with James Baublitz, VP of Capital Markets at First Home Mortgage, into why interest rates have increased so much.

As the calendar turns, many of you will be kicking off your home search and asking about current and forecasted interest rates, so I’ll cover that today, plus a quick note on recent loan limit increases for down payments as low as 3%.

What is a “Normal” Mortgage Rate?

The first thing to understand about mortgage interest rates is that they are market-driven and forecasting comes with the same amount of unpredictability as any other economic/market-based forecasting (GDP, Unemployment, Stocks, etc). Take predictions/forecasts with a grain of salt.

The other truth that is best illustrated by the chart below, which shows the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate since 1971, is that there really is no established “normal” interest rate that we can point to and say “this is what you can expect when markets stabilize.” So, use caution when relying on assumptions about future rates (e.g. for a refi).

Forecasting Future Rates

Most major forecasting organizations including Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, and National Association of Realtors (NAR) believe rates will steadily decrease through 2023 and that trend will continue into 2024.

Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to fall faster than Freddie Mac and NAR, with average 30yr fixed rates hitting mid 5s by the 2nd quarter and low 5s by the end of 2023. They forecast that rates will be in the 4s by Q1/Q2 2024 and believe the long-term stable rate to average 4.4%.

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Join NOVA Buyer’s Club on January 5!

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Is buying a home in 2023 on your list of New Year Resolutions?

Come join the NOVA Buyer’s Club Thursday, January 5 from 4-6 p.m.

We will be focusing on a multitude of different home buying programs plus grants to use when purchasing your first home, as well as discussing topics that are relevant to purchasing a home in the DMV. We’ll also be spilling all the tea on all tips and tricks on how best to smoothly navigate the process.

Come and find out how one of our buyers purchased a condo here in Arlington for only $2,166 down!

We are excited to meet you!

Space is limited so sign up now to register.

Legal Insider: How the housing market can impact your security clearance

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This is a sponsored column by attorneys John Berry and Kimberly Berry of Berry & Berry, PLLC, an employment and labor law firm located in Northern Virginia that specializes in federal employee, security clearance, retirement and private sector employee matters.

By Melissa L. Watkins, Esq.

Just recently in October 2022, the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate topped 7 percent for the first time in more than two decades, a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes intended to tame inflation not seen in some 40 years.

It is anticipated that rates will continue to rise, at least through the early part of 2023. While the increase in mortgage rates has led to many individuals delaying the purchase of homes, some have opted to move forward with home purchases, accepting the higher rates. Unfortunately, with the housing market tightening in terms of inventory, home prices have not fallen commensurate with the increase in rates.

This means that buyers purchasing now are often accepting higher monthly payments than they would have been only a year or two ago. While the future is impossible to predict, some economic forecasts are suggesting that a housing market crash, or a broader recession, could be forthcoming. If this does happen, we could see homeowners forced into circumstances similar to those that were occurring in 2008 and the years thereafter, mainly foreclosures or short sales of their homes.

While there hasn’t been a significant jump in foreclosures to date, foreclosure starts have been on a steady quarterly rise since the federal government ended the Covid-19 foreclosure moratorium in September 2021. However, a key difference now compared to the last housing crisis is that many homeowners, and even those struggling to make payments, have had a large boost to their home values in recent years. That means they still have equity in their homes and are not underwater — when you owe more than the house is worth.

However, if home prices continue to decline, as has been the trend in recent months, homeowners could start to face a decline in home equity, bringing us back closer to the events taking place in 2008. One of the fastest ways to end up with a security clearance issue is have a significant, negative event take place with finances. In light of the uncertainty in the housing market, and economy more broadly, clearance holders should be cognizant of their options and how those options may impact their security clearance.

Foreclosure vs. Short Sale

If an individual gets behind on mortgage payments or if their mortgage is underwater (the home is worth less than the amount owed on the mortgage), homeowners have two primary options: a short sale or a foreclosure. The owner is forced to part with the home in both cases, but the timeline and other consequences are different in each situation. A short sale is a voluntary process. When the homeowner sells the property for an amount that is far less than what is owed on the mortgage, it is called a short sale.

For example, if a homeowner owes $300,000 on the mortgage, but a financial crisis forces them to sell the home quickly for $250,000 — the remaining amount on their mortgage ($50,000) plus any costs associated with the sale are still owed by the homeowner. A short sale requires the approval of the lender in advance, and generally, the approval comes with an agreement by the lender to forgive the remaining balance owed on the mortgage after the sale, but this is not required.

A foreclosure, on the other hand, is involuntary. In this case, the mortgage holder (the lender or the bank) takes legal action to seize the home after the borrower fails to make a specific number of monthly payments. In a foreclosure, the lender takes ownership of the mortgaged property and sells it to recover the amount owed to them on the mortgage. Another major difference between the two is the impact on one’s credit.

Generally, short sales are not significantly detrimental to a homeowner’s credit rating, while foreclosures are. A homeowner who has gone through a short sale may, with certain restrictions, be eligible to purchase another home fairly soon. A foreclosure, on the other hand, is kept on a person’s credit report for seven years.

How Does a Foreclosure or Short Sale Impact a Security Clearance

While both foreclosures and short sales can impact a security clearance, it is generally the case that a short sale is far less detrimental to a clearance holder than a foreclosure. There are several reasons for this difference.

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Small Business Focus: Reach new opportunities in 2023 with government contracting

By ARLnow.com Sponsor
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This column is sponsored by BizLaunch, a division of Arlington Economic Development.

This is part of a series on how to sell to the Government. Upcoming pieces in this series will cover areas like contract vehicles, small business set-asides, unsolicited proposals and more. See more on Bidscale’s blog, BidBlogs.

By Bidscale Staff 

Did you know that the U.S. Federal Government is the world’s largest purchaser of goods and services?

Yearly new contract spending has hit $680 billion. From spaceships that orbit the moon to ballpoint pens, those funds ensure the U.S. Government (USG) has everything it needs to run smoothly. That money can also change lives and invigorate communities. Large contracts and a steady customer can alter the trajectory of a business and provide jobs in economically disadvantaged areas.

The Federal Government understands the impact of its purchasing power and its ability to achieve socioeconomic goals. Every year it sets aside billions of dollars for small businesses, minority-owned companies, and more, though rarely, if ever, depletes all the funds.

If the money is there, why doesn’t every business sell to the Government? The short answer, it’s hard; it takes time and background knowledge. On average, a Government contractor goes through 18 months of researching, planning, developing, and defining before winning its first contract with the Department of Defense (DoD), the largest provider of Federal contracts. Many companies have to hire contracting experts to guide them through the process, a role that can cost upwards of $85,000 annually.

On the bright side, slowly but surely, more tools and resources have emerged to help guide businesses through this process. It’s a win-win; the Government gains access to innovative solutions and products, while businesses gain access to Government funding. So what do you need to know to get started?

First, a contract is how the USG buys products and services. It’s a legally binding agreement that allows a Government entity to purchase something for “the direct benefit and use of a Government agency.” These contracts are regulated by the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), an essential but complex set of guidelines.

According to the General Services Administration (GSA), there are three steps a company must take to potentially win a contract. “Find available opportunities with the Government relevant to their business capabilities, make necessary preparations for bidding on a GSA contract, submit an offer.” This is the overarching approach to this process, but administrative steps must be taken before you can even start searching for available opportunities.

Step 1: Obtain a CAGE Code

Issued by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), a Commercial and Government Entity (CAGE) Code is a five-character ID number necessary when being awarded a contract by the Federal Government. It’s free to get and/or update this code and can be done online through the DLA. If you run into any roadblocks obtaining a CAGE Code, there’s an email contact ([email protected]) and or a number (877) 352-2255 that can be called for assistance.

It’s also possible to just register for SAM.gov and click “No” in the section regarding the CAGE Code, meaning your entity will be assigned a CAGE Code following the SAM.gov registration. There are some restrictions to this that the GSA has outlined.

Step 2: Register with SAM.gov

Now it’s time to register for SAM.gov or, The System for Award Management. It’s the official USA Federal contracting website and is free to use, and anyone can create a user account on SAM.gov. Except in rare circumstances, if you want to apply for federal awards as a prime awardee, you need a registration to bid on government contracts and apply for federal assistance.

It’s quite the process to sign up, but SAM.gov has an excellent FAQ page to assist with any roadblocks. The registration process with SAM.gov will also provide you with a Unique Entity ID (UEI) which has taken over for the DUNS Number. If you would like to read more about the transition, SAM.gov has posted extensively about it.

Step 3: Market Research

Market research is crucial before searching for opportunities. It’s a step you need to take upfront, but it’s also a step you will consistently need to come back to throughout your time selling to the Government. Competition for Government contracts can be tricky, so learning about the space and finding a niche is vital. Market research is an extensive topic. Check back with Bidscale’s blog, BidBlogs, as other parts of this series will be dedicated to market research.

Coming out of market research, you will want to start looking for opportunities. The Government signs millions of contracts each year, so finding a contract your company could fulfill can be daunting. Opportunity searches can be performed through SAM.gov, as it’s required that contracting officers post all opportunities on this website.

Another great tool that just hit the market is Bidscale Connect, which pulls all opportunities posted to SAM.gov and reposts them immediately. Unlike SAM.gov, Bidscale Connect uses an AI-powered search, which steadily hones in on users’ preferences as they use the platform, ensuring only relevant opportunities are pulled to the top of search results. It’s a streamlined way to search, ultimately saving users time, which can be used in the actual proposal writing process.

These basic steps will help your company start selling to the Federal Government, but there’s still plenty more you need to find success in this space.

To learn more about federal, state or local procurement opportunities, reach out to BizLaunch to schedule a BizLaunch consultation in the new year. Check back with Bidscale’s blog, BidBlogs, for upcoming posts covering market research, small business set-asides, small business tricks and tips, unsolicited proposals and more.

Just Reduced Properties in Arlington

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Each week, “Just Reduced” spotlights properties in Arlington County whose price have been cut over the previous week. The market summary is crafted by Arlington Realty, Inc. Maximize your real estate investment with the team by visiting www.arlingtonrealtyinc.com or calling 703-836-6000 today!

Please note: While Arlington Realty, Inc. provides this information for the community, it may not be the listing company of these homes. 

As of December 26, there are 108 detached homes, 29 townhouses and 141 condos for sale throughout Arlington County. In total, 6 homes experienced a price reduction in the past week, including:

1005 S. Queen Street

Please note that this is solely a selection of Just Reduced properties available in Arlington County. For a complete list of properties within your target budget and specifications, contact Arlington Realty, Inc.

Ask Eli: Most expensive homes sold in the DMV in 2022

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: What were some of the most expensive homes sold this year in the DMV?

Answer: Happy holidays and new year everybody!

It’s always fun to look back at the most expensive homes sold in our nook of the world, so without further ado, let’s take a look at the most expensive homes sold this year in D.C., Maryland and Virginia.

Note: this includes what is entered into the MLS, it’s certainly possible (likely) that expensive homes have traded hands privately outside of the MLS.

The most expensive home sold this year in all three DMV states is a beautiful 550 acre estate, with a private 18-hole golf course, in Upperville, Virginia that sold for $23.5M! Despite the hefty price tag, it falls well short of the record sales from 2018, 2020, and 2021 that all cleared $40M.

Listing by John Coles, Thomas and Talbot Estate Properties, Inc (1584 Rokeby Rd, Upperville, VA)

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Arlington

Listing by Robert Hryniewicki, Washington Fine Properties (3433 N Albemarle St, Arlington, VA)

Arlington’s average and median prices are sky-high, but the area generally likes ultra high-end properties we see elsewhere in the region. Arlington’s most expensive sale this year is a new build in Country Club Hills clocking in at 7,450 SqFt, seven bedrooms, seven full bathrooms, and two half baths. The property sits on an unusually large (for Arlington) .39 acre lot.

Top 5 Most Expensive Sales in Alexandria

Listing by Preston Innerst, EYA Marketing (5 Pioneer Mill #502, Alexandria, VA)

The most expensive sale in Alexandria is a townhouse built in 1800 in Old Town that sits on nearly ¼ acre with over 6,000 SqFt and seven bedrooms. Pictured above is the second priciest sale in Alexandria, a waterfront penthouse condo in Robinson Landing with nearly 2,800 SqFt for $4,509,000.

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Statutes of Liberty: TPS Ethiopia, a very merry Christmas

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This sponsored column is by Law Office of James Montana PLLC. All questions about it should be directed to James Montana, Esq., Doran Shemin, Esq., and Laura Lorenzo, Esq., practicing attorneys at The Law Office of James Montana PLLC, an immigration-focused law firm located in Falls Church, Virginia. The legal information given here is general in nature. If you want legal advice, contact us for an appointment.

Our august founder, getting into the true spirit of Christmas.

We have great news for the Ethiopian community here in Washington, D.C.: TPS Ethiopia has opened.

We know, from long experience, that it always makes sense to find a lawyer rather than applying for immigration benefits on your own. We also know that many people will end up applying for TPS-Ethiopia without benefit of counsel. Therefore, in this article, we want to provide information about the process of applying for TPS-Ethiopia. Please use this as intended: as a reference, not as a substitute for an attorney.

Who Can Apply

Ethiopian citizens who have been both continuously resident since October 20, 2022 and continuously physically present since December 12, 2022 (these are distinct concepts!) can apply for TPS.

Should you apply for TPS if you already have a green card? With rare exceptions: No.
Should you apply for TPS if you are already a naturalized American citizen? Absolutely not.
Should you apply for TPS  if you have a pending case in immigration court? Or have a prior removal order? Consult an attorney.

When to Apply

The application window opened on December 12, 2022 and ends of June 12, 2024. USCIS encourages applicants to apply as soon as possible within the application window. In our experience, this isn’t a matter in which seconds count; it’s best to put together your application with care. It is important to file before June 12, 2024, though, because late-filed TPS applications are frequently denied.

How to Apply

The instructions are 18 pages long. Follow them carefully.

In general, you’ll need to submit copies of documents showing your identity (e.g., a passport ID page), the date that you entered the United States (e.g., a copy of Form I-94), and evidence that you meet the continuous residence and physical presence requirements.

Think about the continuous residence and physical presence requirements this way: You’ve been accused of not being in the United States; how would you disprove the accusation? You’d submit evidence! Such evidence might include pay stubs, rent payment receipts, copies of your income tax returns for the relevant period, medical or school records, utility bills, and affidavits from credible witnesses.

When you apply for TPS, you can also request employment authorization. (You don’t have to — asking for employment authorization costs extra money; see the table below for how much.)

How Much To Pay

The current fees (which may change!) are as follows:

Want to apply for TPS-Ethiopia with our office? Let us know! You can call us anytime at (888) 389-8655. Questions about TPS-Ethiopia? Ask away. We appreciate questions and will do our best to respond.

Arts Focus: Moving Words 2023 competition puts poems on public transit

By ARLnow.com Sponsor
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This column is sponsored by Arlington Arts/Arlington Cultural Affairs, a division of Arlington Economic Development.

From theater and dance, to galleries, the arts are everywhere in Arlington… even on the bus!

Poets from around the Beltway are encouraged to enter the 24th Annual Moving Words Poetry Competition that takes their poetry on the go. Seven winners will have their poems displayed aboard ART buses traversing Arlington County from March through September, 2023.

Call for Submissions 

Submissions of poems of 10 lines or less will be accepted through February 15, 2023. The seven winning poems will be displayed inside ART buses between March and September 2023. Selected by juror Holly Karapetkova, Arlington’s Poet Laureate, the winning poems will be printed on colorful placards and displayed prominently, enlivening the ride for thousands of commuters. Each winner will also receive a $250 honorarium. Winning poems will also be posted on ArlingtonArts.org and will be archived on the Arlington County CommuterPage.com website.

Eligible poets will live within the D.C. Metro transit area (the Northern Virginia counties Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun, and the cities Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church; the District of Columbia; and the Maryland counties Montgomery and Prince George’s), and must be over 18 years old. There is no fee to enter.

The Moving Words Program was launched in 1999 during National Poetry Month. It was conceived by award-winning poet and literary historian Kim Roberts (founder of Beltway Poetry Quarterly), the then Literary Program Coordinator for Arlington Cultural Affairs. The goal of Moving Words is to promote the work of local writers and make poetry a part of daily life for commuters in Northern Virginia. Originally held in partnership with Metro, Moving Words launched a new partnership with ART in 2016. This move complements another ongoing Arlington Arts’ program, Art on the ART Bus, which places original artwork by area artists inside select ART Buses.

Currently on display aboard the ARTbuses are the winners of the annual Moving Words competition for youth poets. A separate showcase designed for Arlington Public School students, the Student competition is a partnership between Arlington Cultural Affairs and the Arlington Public Schools Humanities Project’s Pick a Poet project, with support from Arlington Transit.

About Juror Holly Karapetkova:

Holly Karapetkova is the author of two award-winning books of poetry, Towline, winner of the Vern Rutsala Poetry Prize from Cloudbank Books, and Words We Might One Day Say, winner of the Washington Writers’ Publishing House Prize for Poetry. Her poetry, prose, and translations have appeared recently in The Southern Review, Alaska Quarterly Review, Blackbird, Poetry Northwest, and many other places. She is a professor in the Department of Literature and Languages at Marymount University in Arlington where she lives with her husband and two children.

Submission Form

Interested poets may enter their work by completing the submission form by February 15, 2023. For additional details and eligibility information, click this link, or visit arlingtonarts.org.

Just Reduced Properties in Arlington

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

Each week, “Just Reduced” spotlights properties in Arlington County whose price have been cut over the previous week. The market summary is crafted by Arlington Realty, Inc. Maximize your real estate investment with the team by visiting www.arlingtonrealtyinc.com or calling 703-836-6000 today!

Please note: While Arlington Realty, Inc. provides this information for the community, it may not be the listing company of these homes. 

As of December 19, there are 111 detached homes, 32 townhouses and 154 condos for sale throughout Arlington County. In total, 12 homes experienced a price reduction in the past week, including:

1146 N. Vernon Street

Please note that this is solely a selection of Just Reduced properties available in Arlington County. For a complete list of properties within your target budget and specifications, contact Arlington Realty, Inc.

Ask Eli: My best advice to start your home search

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Ask Eli, Live With Jean playlist. Enjoy!

Question: We are looking forward to buying a home next year. Do you have any recommendations on how we should start the home buying process?

Answer: If you Google “home buyer tips” or “what to know before buying a home” you’ll find plenty of advice on the topic, so I’ll include some suggestions I don’t usually see online and put my own spin on some of the more common advice.

Weighted Criteria

It’s easy to come up with 3-5 things that are most important to you, so challenge yourself early to come up with a list of 10-15 must-haves and wants. Then, starting with 100 points, allocate points to each criteria based on how important it is to you and you’ll end up with a weighted criteria list to help you focus your search and objectively compare properties.

I encourage couples to complete this exercise individually first, then work together on a combined list. This will put even the best relationships to the test!

If you want to take it to the next level, bring your weighted criteria list with you on showings and score each house based on the points you allocated to it and score each home on a 100-point scale. I often find that buyers who have taken this exercise seriously and are working within a budget are hitting scores in the 70s-80s on their top choice homes.

Length of Ownership

How long you expect to live in your home is one of the most important factors in defining what you prioritize and how you use your budget. You should focus on the following:

  1. Likely length of ownership
  2. Difference in criteria for a 3-5 year house vs a 10-12+ year house
  3. Difference in budget requirements for a 3-5 year house vs a 10-12+ year house

Appreciation is not guaranteed and difficult to predict, but the value of longer ownership periods is undisputed. One way longer ownership adds value is the potential for eliminating one or more real estate transactions over your lifetime, thus the associated costs (fees, taxes, moving expenses, new furniture, etc) and stress that comes with moving.

If you have an opportunity to significantly increase your length of ownership by stretching your budget, you generally should. On the other hand, if your budget or future (e.g. job will move you in a few years) restrict you to housing that’s likely to be suitable for just 3-4 years, it’s generally better to stay under budget.

Influencers (not the Instagram ones)

Family, friends, colleagues… they’re all happy to offer opinions and contribute to your home buying process, but the input can be overwhelming and unproductive if you don’t set boundaries. Try to determine up-front who you want involved in the process and how you’d like them to be involved.

Think about how you’ve made other major decisions in life — what college to attend, what car to buy, where to get married, whether to change jobs — and if you’re the type of person who likes input from your friends and family, you’ll likely do the same when buying a house. Plan ahead with those influencers so their input is productive and comes at the right time (e.g. not when you’re already two weeks into a contract).

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Winter is here! Blackburn Chimney is here to make sure your chimney is safe

By ARLnow.com Sponsor

As colder weather approaches, many residents are getting ready to use their fireplaces for the first time this season. Many people don’t realize, but chimneys and fireplaces need regular maintenance.

Chimneys are constantly exposed to the harsh environment resulting in cracks. Additionally, smoke going through the chimney can result in a build up of creosote over time.

This black, flaky residue builds up along the inner surfaces of the chimney, and is highly flammable and combustible, meaning that it greatly increases your fire hazard risk in your home. Failure to clean a dirty chimney is one of the leading factors contributing to home heating fires.

Founded in 2020 by Eddie Blackburn, Blackburn Chimney is the premier chimney company in the Washington, D.C., Virginia, and Maryland area. Eddie worked as the Lead Chimney Technician for two large chimney companies. After learning the ins-and-outs of the business, Eddie ventured out to start his own company, Blackburn Chimney.

Blackburn Chimney is owned and operated in Silver Spring and prides itself on excellent customer service.

Blackburn Chimney specializes in chimney and fireplace cleanings and repairs, inspections, entire chimney rebuilds, and general masonry work. Make sure to get your chimney checked before you use it this season!

Head over to www.blackburnchimney.com to book service or call 301-965-1341!

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