This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: How did the D.C. area housing market perform in 2023?
Answer: I will publish my annual Arlington housing market review in the next 2-3 weeks, but in the meantime I thought it would be helpful to share a higher level view of how our regional D.C. area housing market performed in 2023 and what it looked like entering 2024.
Home Sale Volume Crashed
The most significant market trend was the steep drop in total homes sold in 2023, with total sales in the Greater D.C. Metro about 25% lower than the historical average and more than 40% below 2022 sales volume. The drop is housing units sold was not the result of lower demand, in fact, demand remained quite strong despite interest rates spending most of the year at 7-8%+.
The decrease was driven by the lack of supply, with very few homes hitting the market for sale, primarily due to homeowners not wanting to give up their low mortgage rates. The second chart highlights the extent of the supply problem, with nearly two straight years of mostly double-digit year-over-year decreases in monthly new listing volume. The only positive year-over-year reading in the past two years was a .4% increase in new listings in February 2022.
Prices Increased at a Lower Pace
Normally with supply so low one would expect to see prices increase sharply, but high interest rates made most buyers reluctant to overpay and kept price appreciation modest at 2.5% on the year, well below the historical average of 4.3%. Appreciation in the Greater D.C. Metro market came in just under the national average of 2.9%.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Where do you expect interest rates to go in 2024?
Answer: The thing about interest rate forecasts is that they’re almost always wrong, so keep that in mind as you digest the predictions in this article or anywhere you hear/read them.
For the most part, buyers have adjusted to interest rates being about double what they were two years ago. Few remaining buyers in the market were active when rates were that low so rates in the 6-8% range are all most current buyers are used to seeing. Thus when rates dropped about 1-1.5% towards the end of 2023, it created strong momentum in the market and we’re seeing that early this year with loan applications up and a high volume of showings and competing offers.
What is a “Normal” Mortgage Rate?
The first thing to understand about mortgage interest rates is that they are market-driven and forecasting comes with the same amount of unpredictability as any other economic/market-based forecasting (GDP, Unemployment, Stocks, etc). Take predictions/forecasts with a grain of salt.
The other truth that is best illustrated by the chart below, which shows the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate since 1971, is that there really is no established “normal” interest rate that we can point to and say “this is what you can expect when markets stabilize. So, use caution when relying on assumptions about future rates (e.g. for a refi).
Forecasting Future Rates
Most major forecasting organizations including Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, and National Association of Realtors (NAR) believe rates will steadily decrease through 2024 and that trend will continue into 2025 (although I wrote the same exact thing last year and rates trended up for most of the year).
The National Association of Realtors expects the average 30yr fixed rate will average 6.3% in 2024
Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to fall faster than Fannie Mae and NAR, with average 30yr fixed rates hitting 6.1% by the end of the year and mid 5s by the second half of 2025.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
It’s always fun taking a look back at the most expensive homes sold in the D.C., Maryland, and Virginia (DMV) region each year (see 2022, 2021, and 2020) so let’s jump right into some amazing real estate that changed hands in 2023 (Note: this includes what is entered into the MLS, it’s certainly possible (likely) that expensive homes have traded hands privately outside of the MLS).
2023 was a slow year in real estate and the did not spare the ultra-high-end market with a disappointing year for mega sales compared to previous years. The most expensive home sold in 2023 was a $17.3M home owned by the Royal Swedish Government and home to the Swedish Ambassador. The home itself leaves something to be desired for the “food porn” fans, but the 6.7 acres in American University Park is enviable.
Listed by Cara Pearlman, Compass (3900 Nebraska Ave NW, Washington, DC)
Despite its high average cost, Arlington doesn’t have much of an ultra-high-end market like many of its neighboring jurisdictions with just three sales over $4M, topping out at $4.25M for a beautiful new build on nearly ½ acre by Joy Custom Homes in the Dover Crystal neighborhood.
Listed by Lisa Joy, McEnearney Associates (2545 N Ridgeview Rd, Arlington, VA)
McLean’s prestigious Langley Farms neighbor claims the top two sales in Virginia this year, with sales of $13.25M and $10.8M in 2023. The top sale earns the new homeowner a home spanning nearly 14,000 SqFt on just under two acres of land.
Listed by Piper Yerks, Washington Fine Properties (1163 Chain Bridge Rd, McLean, VA)
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Happy new year everybody! I hope each of you had a restful and meaningful holiday season.
A couple weeks ago, our Eli Residential Group team got together for a holiday celebration and did a food and drink tour of Arlington’s newly opened Water Park in Crystal City/National Landing. It’s a recently opened indoor/outdoor food hall(ish) in a park setting with eleven different restaurants that’ll offer something for every taste and appetite.
Each of us picked one place from the eleven on-site options to try out and we loved each stop. The park/food hall is designed to be mostly outdoors with just a couple of restaurants offering indoor seating, but they had heaters all over to make it comfortable even with chilly weather. Once spring comes this will be a fantastic place to eat, drink, and hang out. They will also host regularly scheduled live music and community events during warmer months.
I highly recommend a visit to the Water Park for any locals or visitors, and it also makes for a great destination for somebody with a long layover at Regan National Airport.
I selected Water Bar for the location, the interior aesthetic, and the seafood!
Water Bar centrally located in the park, above the main waterfall feature, and overlooks the park. It is one of the two restaurant options with indoor seating. The vibe inside is trendy, modern and fun, and it will be even more inviting when the water feature is turned on in the warmer months.
We ordered the crab cakes, broiled oysters, prosciutto pretzel rods and the crab melt panini. I am a sucker for good seafood and our selections were delicious.
Our server/bartender was fantastic, she whipped up a delightful mocktail for me (as I am currently 8 months pregnant!) and some fun cocktails for the rest of the group.
Fun fact: the entire park permits alcohol to be consumed between restaurants, it feels like quite a treat to carry your beverage from one spot to the next!
I’ve been looking forward to my next visit to Queen Mother’s for their legendary fried chicken sandwiches since I first tried one two years ago.
I was heartbroken when they announced their moved off Columbia Pike just before I moved within walking distance of their former location (although, maybe a good thing for my health).
We ordered the Classic, Spicy Buffalo, and Elijah Spicy sandwiches plus sides of duck fat fries and tenders.
Every bite is heavenly, and I urge anybody who hasn’t visited Queen Mother’s to do so ASAP.
I’m always searching for good pizza, and Crush Pizza + Wine delivered, offering tempting selections of NY Style pizzas.
All the pie descriptions looked great, so we decided to order half-n-half. A classic cheese pizza on one half, and a Greek pizza (crushed tomato sauce, mozzarella, salami, feta, kalamata olives, pepperoncini, red onion) on the other. Both were excellent!
Thin, crispy crust with cheesy goodness on top. And our bottle of Italian red hit the spot too!
We ordered a large pie, but they also serve by the slice if you want to sample more of their menu.
The staff were welcoming, fun, and friendly. I can’t wait to go back!
I picked Tiki Thai because I love the spicy and tangy thai flavors and I had my heart set on the Drunken Khao Soi (drunken noodles).
By the time we made it to Tiki Thai, we had already tried so many great dishes at the other restaurants so decided to order dessert and I’m so glad we did!
We shared the fresh mango and sticky rice and the Thai Churros. The mango and sticky rice had the perfect level of sweetness and the rice was infused with coconut so it tasted like a tropical treat.
The churros were fluffy and light, and came with two dipping sauces: nutella and condensed milk. The churros with condensed milk were my absolute favorite! Both desserts were delicious and didn’t feel too heavy so that left some room for a cold Singha beer!
Initially I selected this location, because I love coffee, however, once I went to their website I learned more about how they are supporting our community, and felt they were the type of local business we love to support.
Here’s what I read:
True to our name, Brij was envisioned as a haven, connector, and support network by our founder Skyler Kelley, who reinvests a portion of earnings in the community through nonprofits that help our neighbors in need.
Drawing on her lived experience as an unhoused single mother, Skyler founded Brij with a vision to eradicate homelessness and bridge gaps among the District’s richly diverse community.
Happy new year from Brian, Tonya, Jean, Val, and Eli!
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
On Tuesday January 9, I’ll be hosting another Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop with my business partner Jean Ropp and Loan Officer, Matt Ropp, with FitzGerald Financial. Food and drinks will be provided!
The workshop is a free and will cover:
How to use data and strategy to maximize your home purchase
How to use market trends to your advantage
The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/products
Common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success
Who is it for?
Any buyer type from first-time buyer to experienced buyers
Ready to purchase now or planning 18-24 months out
Home buyers in Northern VA, DC, or the Maryland Suburbs
You or anybody you know who would benefit
Where and When?
Tuesday January 9 from 6-7:30 PM
Arlington Central Library (1015 N Quincy St), Bluemont Room
Registration is now open and space is limited. Click the graphic below to RSVP. Bring your appetite and your home buying questions! I’d love to see you there. Feel free to email me at [email protected] with any questions about the event.
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Do you think that the newly announced stadium for the Capitals and Wizards will cause home values to increase in Potomac Yard and the surrounding neighborhoods?
Answer: Last week Monumental Sports owner Ted Leonsis and Virginia Gov. Glen Younkin announced a new stadium complex for the Washington Wizards and Capitals in Alexandria’s Potomac Yard neighborhood, initiating a shocking departure from their current home in downtown Washington, D.C. Immediately, questions began to swirl about the costs and benefits of building a new stadium, including whether it would boost nearby home values.
Studies Say… It Depends
There are dozens of studies on the effect of stadiums on local and regional economies; most find that it costs taxpayers too much and the stadiums fail to deliver on the promises made by the team owners, who end up being the biggest beneficiaries.
There are also a number of studies looking at how sports stadiums effect nearby home values (you can reference some articles and studies I found here, here, here, here, here, and here) and the findings of those studies vary widely. Positive or negative price effects seem to depend on the economic/development state of the local community when the stadium is announced.
Stadiums built in communities in need of development/revitalization (e.g. what Nationals stadium did for Navy Yard) tend to result in a major boost to home values, yet stadiums in areas that are already economically successfully can have a negative effect on prices as shown by a study conducted on the effects of the Seattle Supersonics (NBA) leaving the Key Arena in Seattle, which led to home values increasing as a result of less traffic and crowds.
Potomac Yard, the location of the newly announced Caps/Wizards stadium, falls into the latter bucket — already economically/commercially successful without a stadium.
Homes Values In/Near Potomac Yard Already on Strong Trajectory
Potomac Yard already has a strong home value appreciation trajectory without a new stadium complex due to major developments including:
A robust commercial/retail development pipeline (I recall learning at a panel a few years ago that the development dollars earmarked for Potomac Yard are/were some of the highest in the region)
Adding a massive sports and entertainment arena will certainly expedite new development and most likely cause more development dollars to flow in, but I’m not convinced that a new arena increases the ceiling for appreciation more than the existing factors listed above.
It is also worth noting that without a new stadium complex on this land, it’s not like the land will sit vacant and unused, it’s an incredibly valuable piece of land that can and will be developed for commercial and/or residential use. That beckons the question of whether a new stadium and entertainment complex increases the projected home value appreciation more than another use of the land.
Stadium Likely a Net Negative for Many Homeowners
The expedited and additional development resulting from a new arena will create upward pressure on home values in Potomac Yard and the neighboring communities, but it comes at a significant cost of high traffic and crowding throughout the year in an area already plagued by traffic issues.
Given that plenty of commercial (retail, dining, shopping) development already exists in Potomac Yard and the surrounding neighborhoods (Old Town, Del Ray, Crystal/Pentagon City, Shirlington, and D.C. is pretty close too) for residents to enjoy, I think that many residents/future residents will find that the cost of the congestion far exceeds the benefit of marginal improvements to local entertainment and retail.
If enough homeowners consider the new arena to be a net negative for themselves, the logical conclusion is that demand in and around Potomac Yard will fall, which means a new arena will have a negative effect on the value of homes in the congestion area.
Better for Rentals, Condos
The effects may not be felt evenly across all housing types though. If I had to make a prediction, I would guess that a new stadium and entertainment complex will provide a material boost in apartment rental prices and potentially condo values, but become a drag on townhouse and single-family home values in Potomac Yard and the adjacent neighborhoods.
I’m assuming here that renters and owners in apartment buildings/condos rely more on public transportation/Metro and walkability than townhouse/single-family owners so will be less affected by traffic congestion and that those renters/owners are more likely to value easy access to the sports and entertainment events hosted in the new sports complex.
That would bode well for owners in condo properties like the Dylan (new condos in Potomac Yard) and the Eclipse (in Arlington, just north of Potomac Yard).
Home Value Increases May Be Speculative Only
I’ve written in the past about the “speculative boom” of home (specifically condo) prices after the Amazon HQ2 announcement and the abnormal ~10% appreciation in the condo market following the HQ2 announcement was purely speculative about the future benefits of Amazon HQ2.
I’ve gotten multiple messages from clients/contacts excited about the home value appreciation that will follow the new stadium complex, but that excitement is of course speculative for now. I would not be surprised if there is a bump in home values in/near Potomac Yard speculating on the benefits of the stadium, but buyers and investors should be careful placing much, if any, speculative premium on adjacent housing (especially townhouse/single-family) because of the concerns shared in this column about the effect on actual demand.
My Humble Opinion
After my initial reaction of “we’re getting a stadium and concert venue in our backyard!” wore off, I think this is a terrible deal not just for the people who live nearby the proposed stadium but for Virginians and the entire DMV.
The added congestion for those who live nearby and rely on those sections of Rt 1, GW Parkway, and 395 (not to mention all the smaller side streets) and for those coming and going from Reagan National Airport will be a significant negative on a frequent basis. Plus, it’s not like getting to Capital One Arena is all that difficult for Arlington/Alexandria residents anyway so there’s little gained for most of us.
The Washington Post just published an article saying that the stadium complex could cost Virginia taxpayers $1.35B which would be the largest arena subsidy ever. I’m not sure if that number accounts for all the increases in infrastructure, police, etc costs that come with supporting the on-going operations of the complex and events. The promise is that the taxpayer subsidies will get paid back over a few decades through revenue generated off the arena (parking, naming rights, etc) and additional taxes but studies have found that taxpayers usually end up getting the short end of the stick on these stadium deals.
The entire DMV suffers because access to the stadium becomes more difficult for a majority of fans (think about people coming from the Maryland suburbs), the teams leave their home city, and downtown D.C. gets crippled by the loss of sporting events. A strong, vibrant D.C. core is important for the entire DMV and this is a crushing blow to an already fragile downtown.
This column is full of my opinions and assumptions on how people feel about the pros/cons of the stadium complex; I know how I’d feel if I found out an arena like this was being built a mile or so from my house. What do you think? Am I wrong? Do you think enough homeowners will see this as a net positive and demand will increase for housing in Potomac Yard and the adjacent neighborhoods?
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Answer: The craziness and amazingness of the world has led me to spend more time than usual thinking about how grateful I am for the people and things around me, so I thought I’d share some of the things Arlington offers that I’m most thankful for.
Parks, Trails, and Rec Centers
No matter where you live in Arlington, you have access to an incredible network of trails, parks, and rec centers for endless outdoor enjoyment that costs nothing. For me, commuting by bike on the Mount Vernon Trail along the Potomac River with iconic views of D.C. (when I had a commuting job), to pajama-wearing strolls with my son along the Bluemont Trail enveloped by fireflies, to sunrises over the blossoming tulip garden at the Netherlands Carillon, and all of the playgrounds that have filled weekend afternoons for our family are just a fraction of the joy I’ve gotten from the public spaces in Arlington.
Diversity of Great Food
Arlington itself offers wonderfully diverse cuisines and when you add neighboring jurisdictions of Washington, D.C., Annandale, Alexandria, and Falls Church to the mix we have access to delicious international cuisine from every corner of the world within 20-30 minutes. It’s a special thing that few people get to experience and shouldn’t be taken for granted.
Some of my all-time favorite Arlington restaurants are Mele Bistro (fantastic ingredients), Brooklyn Bagel (as good or better than any NYC bagel), La Union (papusas), Pho 75, Mussel Bar (cocktails and beer), Quarterdeck (crabs), El Chilango (tacos), Thai Square, Bob & Ediths’s Diner, Silver Diner, Super Pollo, Bonchon, and Texas Jack’s BBQ.
Comprehensive Transportation Network
Being 10 minutes to National Airport and 30 minutes to Dulles Airport is a luxury I will always appreciate. Having such easy access by car to almost all major regional roadways/highways so you can travel in all directions quickly is something that even many of our neighbors don’t get to enjoy. Access to Metro, Amtrak, VRE, bus lines, and a thoughtful trail/bike lane system provide us Arlingtonians with a comprehensive transportation system worthy of our appreciation.
So Many Activities!
Let me take a moment to shout-out the many community engagement organizations like the Rosslyn, Ballston, and National Landing Business Improvement Districts and the Columbia Pike Partnership for bringing us things like farmers markets and movie nights that have helped neighbors meet and build a sense of home in our neighborhoods.
Although just outside of Arlington, we have easy access to some truly incredible vineyards in Virginia wine country, amazing hiking and camping in the Shenandoah Valley, and of course all of Washington, D.C.’s museums and exhibits.
Schools
Our family has gotten to experience Arlington Public Schools first-hand for the first time this year, with our son starting Kindergarten at Barcroft Elementary. I can’t say enough about his teachers and the students/families he/we have met. We have been thoroughly impressed with his development in reading, math, and science thanks to the exceptional Arlington school system.
ARLnow Platform and People
This would be on my list regardless of whether I wrote my weekly real estate column for ARLnow. The Arlington community is lucky to have Scott and his team of awesome reporters and staff reporting daily on such a wide range of important local topics. It keeps us all engaged and informed about the happenings in our community which helps create a better sense of belonging and home for each of us. It is free from the influence and political agenda of a news organization beholden to large advertisers or media groups, which makes it authentically our own. I’m grateful to be a reader and a contributor to such a valuable community asset.
ARLnow Readers
Thank you ARLnow readers for being part of what makes such a crazy and difficult world also so wonderful and energizing. I’m grateful to be part of a community that offers us so much and hope that you all feel the same as we close out 2023. I’d love if you add to the comments section some of what you appreciate most about living and/or working in Arlington.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Do you have any tips for things to look for when purchasing a home with young kids or kids on the way?
Answer: I’ve been looking for some good ways to introduce some of the fantastic agents I work with at Eli Residential Group and this is a perfect topic for Jean Ropp, mother of a vivacious two year old and her second baby boy on the way! Jean and I have worked together for 3+ years and has been a valuable resource to many of our clients.
She and her husband Matt lived in Arlington for a number of years before buying a townhouse in the Autumn Chase Hunt HOA, right next to Kingstowne in Alexandria, when they found out they were going to be parents. Her personal and professional experience makes her a great person to discuss what families with young kids or kids on the way should look for in a home. Take it away Jean!
As a mother of a 2-year-old and another on the way, I can confirm that when buying a home for your family, it’s not just about bedroom count, location and square footage, so I put together a list of ten things to look for when searching for a home with young kids (based on both personal and professional experience!)
Before you set your search criteria, it’s important to think realistically about your family’s timeline in your next home and determine projected range in the number of years you plan to live in there. Your criteria, budget, expectations, and strategy will likely vary significantly between a home you’re buying for the next 3-5 years and a home you’re buying for the next 15-20+ years. Once you have that range determined, I advise you to consider these things when thinking about your young children in the house:
1. Schools and Daycare: Think about how you will assess schools, not everybody values the same things from their schools. Some tools I use for public schools are greatschools.org and niche.com. Also consider if certain programs are important to you such as language immersion programs, Montessori curriculums, STEM focus, etc. For daycare searches, I recommend carelulu.com and touring the facilities in person ~12 months before you need care because many schools have long waitlists.
3. Yard: Ideally a backyard that is private, flat, large enough for play, and fenced in is preferred (duh!) but this is generally very expensive in our area and can be tough to find in many neighborhoods, so achieving even one or two of these “dream yard” goals is a win. A nearby park or the HOA may have spaces like this that can help you achieve the outdoor functions you’re looking for and come at a much more achievable price.
4. HOA Amenities: Look for community amenities such as pools, playgrounds, tennis courts, trails etc. We spend a lot of our time at our HOA playground and the playgrounds nearby — I don’t know how we would fill our afternoons without it! Community amenities are also a great place to meet other young families in the neighborhood.
5. Lot Location: Try to avoid being directly on/next to a busy road or through street when possible both for safety (small children and pets) and noise (check noise with windows closed and open in kids’ bedrooms). Some roads are easy to tell if they’re busy or not, others you’ll need to keep an eye out for double yellow lines, MPH signs, and check a map to see if it connects traffic from two busy roads. Living near the front of a neighborhood will also result in more traffic passing through.
6. Walkability: Walkability means different things to different people. Walkability to restaurants, shops, and groceries can be very expensive around here but walkability can also mean neighborhood streets with sidewalks or being able to easily and safely reach a park or trail.
7. Storage: Kids accumulate A LOT of stuff of varying size — some indoor and some outdoor. And if you plan on having more than one kid, you may want to save clothes in storage to reuse. Check how much room you have in a garage with your car in it (many garages become storage, not car parking), look at attic access (can you get to it, does it have a pulldown), and look for any areas of the home with dead space where you can add shelving or other storage.
8. Kid-Friendly Floorplans: Try to find a home that allows your bedroom to be on the same floor as your children so you aren’t stumbling up and down steps in the middle of the night getting to a crying child for the fifth time. This area has many split-level layouts (multiple smaller sets of stairs), so be cognizant of this as you look through listing photos and floor plans online because it means more baby gates and difficulty for little ones to navigate the home.
9. Upstairs Laundry: From personal experience, having your laundry on the same level as the bedrooms is a game changer.
10. Windows: Big windows that extend close to the floor are a huge plus for those toddlers (and pets!) to watch the world.
Don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected] or my cell at (781) 635-5530 for any follow-up questions, advice, or additional family-friendly resources I can share with you!
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: I’ve noticed that the market has slowed down quite a bit the last few months. Do you expect that trend to continue into next year?
Answer: I’d be remiss not to mention the Thanksgiving pie poll results from last week! With 1,043 votes as of last night, ARLnow readers overwhelmingly prefer pumpkin pie (45%) for Thanksgiving, followed by apple (29%), and then pecan (26%). That’s exactly the order I eat my pie on Thanksgiving! Now back to your regularly scheduled programming…
Will The Slow Market Continue into 2024?
Like clockwork, the second half of the year is slower than the first half (except when COVID flipped 2020 upside down) and it gets especially slow in the 4th quarter as focus shifts to holidays, family/friend time, and travel. This period of seasonal slowness consistently succeeds in lulling the market to sleep, resulting in predictions that the prevailing economic/housing headwinds (whatever they may be at the time) will result in a slower/down housing market the following year.
These predictions are consistently wrong and the market usually proves that within the first 2-3 weeks of the new year.
The Data Says Prepare for a Rapid Increase in Demand
The data in the chart below is collected from Arlington sales going back to 2017, sans 2020 data. It shows market performance based on the week that properties go under contract — percentage of properties selling above the original ask, percentage of properties selling at or above the original ask, and the percentage of properties selling with 1-10 days on market (my preferred measure of market speed).
The highlight of the chart is how rapidly the market shifts in January, relative to the previous 3-4 months. By the second week of January, the market is moving faster than it has in over four months and by the third week of January, both pricing metrics are higher than they’ve been in roughly six months.
Only about 21% of properties that go under contract in the second half of the year are over the asking price, but by the third week of January, 1/3rd of properties sell above the asking price and that price pressure remains in place until summer hits.
For buyers in the market, it’s important to also prepare for just how quickly homes will start selling. In the last two months of the year, only 28.5% of homes were going under contract in the first ten days, but that jumps to over 46% by the second week of January and by early/mid February well over 50% of homes sell within the first ten days on market and the pace hovers around 60% through May.
These percentages will vary significantly based on the market conditions of a given year, but the important takeaway is how quickly demand shifts in the new year relative to the end of the prior year. As a reminder, Q4 ’22 to Q1 ’23, a period many predicted would result in a continuation of a slow/down market, delivered us the most significant whiplash effect through a new calendar year we have seen.
You can see a similar rapid shift in annual market conditions from this chart from Altos Research showing the percentage of properties in Arlington on market that have had a price decrease. The steep drops you see start when the calendar turns to January.
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Happy Thanksgiving ARLnow!
On behalf of all ARLnow readers, the Eli Residential Group has donated to the wonderful Arlington Food Assistance Center (AFAC) whose mission is to feed our neighbors in need by providing dignified access to nutritious supplemental groceries. AFAC is a 4-star, top-rated charity on Charity Navigator and is a worthy organization for your holiday giving.
Last year, I ran a critical Thanksgiving poll asking ARLnow readers whether they prefer white or dark meat turkey. Apparently, we are a house perfectly divided here in in Arlington; with 575 total votes, 288 voters prefer white meat and 287 prefer dark meat. That’s impressive! (and I can’t believe 288 out of 575 ARLnow readers are so wrong about their turkey preference…)
This year, I am returning with another mission critical poll:
This year, our team gave 160+ pies to our clients from Arlington’s Acme Pie Co (if you haven’t indulged, I highly recommend them). Our clients selected 45% apple, 39% pecan, and 16% pumpkin, which surprised me. I thought pumpkin would surely be second to apple, but it wasn’t even close. Let’s see how our clients’ tastes compare to the taste buds of ARLnow!
If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].
If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.
This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!
Question: Are you seeing that Missing Middle is achieving its goals for housing supply creation in Arlington?
Answer: What is the goal of Arlington’s Missing Middle aka Expanded Housing Options (EHO) housing policy?
At first, it seemed the County was hoping to provide housing options for “middle income” home buyers. That shifted once it became obvious that any new housing product would be far too expensive for anything resembling middle income. The target became a blend of creating housing that filled a gap in property type(s) missing from the Arlington housing market and adding housing supply.
It also seems that the County hopes that most Missing Middle housing units will be delivered for sale rather than as rental units, because most of the conversation I’ve heard/read from them focuses on ownership opportunity related to Missing Middle, but there is nothing they are doing (likely nothing they can do) to make that a reality, aside from hoping the market delivers ownership opportunities instead of new rentals.
If you’d like a catch-up/review on my previous articles about Missing Middle, you can read my initial thoughts here, followed by more recent thoughts and observations here, which includes some doubt that many of the approved applications will actually get built.
What is Missing from Arlington’s Housing Market?
If you ask me what’s missing from Arlington’s housing market and in high demand, I’d say that it’s townhouse/duplex housing with 3-4 bedrooms with roughly 2,500-3,500 finished square feet and two off-street parking spaces, that suits a family with 1-2 kids. The data, summarized below, also supports this being an undersupplied category of housing. Arlington does not lack multi-family housing (condo or rental apartments), relative to other housing types.
I looked at the last five years of Arlington sales data and analyzed the breakdown of property types sold by bedroom count, total finished square footage, and property type:
45% of homes were multi-family condo and just 19% were townhouse/duplex (most of the 19% were built well over 50 years ago)
Over 50% of homes had 1-2 bedrooms
55% of homes had 1,500 or less finished square feet
Only 10% of homes had 2,500-3,500 finished square feet, a range that I think is highly desirable for many buyers/families in Arlington
Pizza and wine — what’s not to like?
