Ask Eli

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Have you seen a change in demand for home pools since COVID-19 began?

Answer: In 2017 I wrote that for most homes in Northern Virginia (and the D.C. metro), having a pool had a negative impact on resale because most buyers see them as a hazard, unnecessary expense and/or inefficient use of yard. However, COVID has changed the minds of many buyers and caused demand for homes with pools to increase significantly.

Demand for Pools Much Higher in 2020+

Below is a look at the data (as of April 4, 2021) of homes sold with a pool in Arlington County, Falls Church City, Alexandria City, Fairfax County and Loudoun County since 2015. The numbers were pretty consistent prior to 2020, then demand clearly shifted in favor of pools due to COVID. All indicators improved significantly for people selling a home with a pool.

Demand Similar Across Northern Virginia

I broke down the sales data since 2015 between each Northern Virginia jurisdiction to see if certain markets perform better or worse on sales of homes with pools. It turns out that there’s not much of a difference on where you’re buying in Northern Virginia — the interest in pools seems to be relatively similar across each market. Note how few homes in Arlington, Alexandria and Falls Church have pools.

Looking for a Pool?

If you’re looking for a house with a pool in Northern Virginia, I wrote an article last year breaking down what sub-markets you’re most likely to find homes with a pool for sale and the sales data for those homes.

Unfortunately, it’s incredibly expensive to build your own pool here. Most people are shocked when they find out what it costs to build a gunite (concrete) in-ground pool around here, which usually runs from $150,000 to $200,000 before additional patio and landscaping work.

I linked up with local Arlington landscape designer/expert Rob Groff, of Groff Landscape Design, to find out why it’s so much more expensive to build a pool here than elsewhere in the region/country. I also asked about a common strategy I’ve heard from homeowners to hire an out-of-town company to build a pool for less and pay for their travel/lodging during the project to save some money.

Q: Why is it so expensive to build a pool here?

A: It’s so much more expensive to build a pool here because permitting is more time consuming and expensive; materials and labor are more expensive; average lot size is smaller, which oftentimes causes problems; and engineering, municipal-related site preparation, such as construction entrances, super silt fence, site restoration, drainage, etc. are all a factor.

Q: Is it more cost-effective for homeowners to hire an out-of-town pool company who builds pools for less money and pay for their travel/lodging?

A: A lot of pool companies don’t include all expenses upfront and therefore there are a ton of surprise costs on the back-end of the pool project. I’ve seen this a lot, especially from out-of-area pool companies. We actually set up a spreadsheet and accompany some of our clients in the vetting process. We had a local company at $205,000 for a pool that a Fredericksburg-based company had at $145,000. By the time the meeting was over and we corrected the Fredericksburg company to make sure they didn’t leave anything off, they were up at $215,000.

Q: Are there more affordable options for in-ground pools that you recommend?

A: In Northern Virginia, a gunite (concrete) pool has been the standard for a long time. On average, we see these coming in at $150,000 to $200,000 in Northern Virginia (not including the pool patio and other surrounding elements like landscaping, lighting, etc.). Fiberglass pools are growing in popularity and their base price is closer to $55,000 to $65,000 (River Pools and Spa). These fiberglass pools don’t feel the same to many homeowners as a true gunite pool, but they save enough money to make people consider them. There are a ton of good videos on their website that explains the differences between gunite and fiberglass, etc.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local Real Estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Can you do an update of your 2017 article on the cost of land in Arlington?

Answer: In 2017 I took a look at a dataset focused on the cost of land in Arlington and lot sizes, so let’s take a look at these numbers a few years later and see just how much more expensive it is to snag a square of grass here.

Since 2017, the average lot size on all single-family homes (SFH) sold is 8,515 square feet or about .2 acres. Only five of the 4,428 SFH sold had 1+ acres, with none over 1.15 acres. Just 1.6% of sales were homes with a half acre or more. Even more, 82.4% of SFH sold since 2017 sat on one-tenth to one-quarter of an acre. (For context, one-quarter of an acre is about 11,000 square feet).

The chart below breaks down the average lot size and standard deviation of lot sizes by Arlington ZIP code based on sales of SFH since 2017. I also added two columns looking at the average cost of a new SFH in each ZIP code based on 2020 to 2021 sales. ZIP codes 22206 and 22209 didn’t have enough SFH sales to provide good data.

It’s not easy to determine the average cost of homes that get torn down or have a major remodel, so I used the same methodology as I did in 2017 and looked at the cheapest 15% of sales in each ZIP, by year, and assumed that these represent sales that were completely or mostly valued for the land. The chart below shows the average cost of the cheapest 15% of SFH sold in each ZIP, by year. The second chart is the same dataset but looks at the cost per square feet of the lot.

The biggest downside of this methodology is that it’s not capturing sales of the best lots in certain ZIP codes, but I think this approach does a pretty good job of capturing average values for most sales where the lot was the entire or majority of the value.

Lots in 22201 are by far the most expensive per square feet because they’re both expensive (highest average price for cheapest 15%) and small (third smallest average lot size by ZIP code, the two with smaller lots barely have any SFH lots).

While you’ll pay about $100K more for the average lot in 22207 compared to 22205, you’re most likely getting a larger lot so the cost per square feet of those lots ends up being similar. The cheapest lots are in 22204 (by nearly $150,000), but the best value, by far, is 22213 with the average lot just $67 per square feet.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local Real Estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How has the market for high-rise condo buildings compared to low-rise/smaller condo communities through the pandemic?

Answer: The condo market began to turn last summer and got progressively worse through November/December but has improved slightly and stabilized a bit since December. The next few months will give us a lot of good information on whether the condo market will improve or if we can expect a rebalancing as buyer priorities shift more permanently due to their COVID experiences and new telework policies.

This week I took a look at some of the underlying condo market data to see if there has been a noticeable difference in how garden/townhouse-style (garden-style meaning low-rises of one to four stories) condo communities have performed compared to mid/high-rise buildings. I also broke down the condo market by bedroom to see if one-bedrooms have been impacted more than larger two- and three-bedroom units.

Arlington/D.C. Metro Condo Market Overview

First, let’s take a zoomed-out look at the Arlington and D.C. metro markets. We are still experiencing a rush out of condos (see first chart, New Listings), with the D.C. metro and Arlington both recording record-highs in total condos listed for sale in January and February. The reasons for this range from people seeking more space/yard to investors unable to find tenants.

Months of Supply (measure of supply and demand) shown in the second chart shows us that Arlington experiences a slightly worse (for sellers) condo market than the D.C. metro overall after experiencing a much stronger market from late 2018 to early 2020 in the wake of Amazon’s HQ2 announcement. Both markets have shown signs of stabilizing over the last few months after getting progressively worse each month in the second half of 2020.

Garden/Townhouse-Style vs. Mid/High-Rise

The overall Arlington condo market is sitting at about 2.25 Months of Supply, still well below the 6 Months of Supply deemed by economists to be a balanced market for buyers and sellers. As of this writing, the mid/high-rise market has about 2.6 Months of Supply and the garden/townhouse-style condo market is sitting at 1.3 Months of Supply, making it a pretty good market to sell into.

Historically, the garden/townhouse-style market has performed better (faster sales, more competition/seller leverage) than the mid/high-rise market so the difference in Months of Supply doesn’t indicate a COVID-related shift. As you’ll see in the table below, the differences between the garden/townhouse-style condo market and the mid/high-rise market have remained relatively similar each year from pre-Amazon (2018) through the Amazon surge (2019) and now into the COVID-related pullback (2020).

Condo Market Performance by Bedroom Count

I also took a similar look at the Arlington condo market by bedroom count. Months of Supply for one bedrooms is highest at 2.5, followed by two bedrooms at 1.8 and then three bedrooms at 1.7. The early data for 2021 suggests that one-bedroom condos will suffer more in the market than larger two- and three-bedroom units, which makes sense from a COVID standpoint because most one-bedroom units don’t have a good dedicated office space.

I do expect the condo market to improve over the next few months as more people are vaccinated and warmer weather allows people to return to some semblance of a normal life — thus buying behavior that is more reflective of pre-COVID times. However, I think that how employers choose to handle telework long-term will ultimately determine whether we will experience a full return to the pre-COVID market or if we are going to see a more permanent rebalancing of condo values as commutes/convenience become less of a priority for buyers if they are no longer coming into an office every week.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local Real Estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How many different real estate agents do business in Arlington in a typical year?

Answer: There were 2,770 real estate transactions in Arlington in 2020 (incredibly close to the 2,782 transactions in 2019!), totaling over $2.16 billion in total sales volume (up from $1.96 billion in 2019).

I think most people would assume a few hundred different real estate agents worked on those 2,770 transactions, but in fact, there were 2,223 different agents part of those sales (remember, most transactions have two agents involved). In 2019, 2,017 different agents transacted in Arlington so the numbers are very consistent.

I looked over the 2020 Arlington transaction data and pulled out some interesting highlights:

• 61.4% of the agents who handled an Arlington real estate transaction in 2020 work on just one sale in Arlington. (They may have done more business outside of Arlington.)
• Just 3% of agents handled 10 or more transactions in Arlington and 0.8% handled 20 or more transactions.
• 1,452 different agents represented buyers in Arlington, and 19 of them (1.3%) worked with 10 or more buyers in Arlington.
• 1,316 different agents represented sellers in Arlington and 29 of them (2.2%) worked with 10 or more sellers in Arlington.
• Of the 858 agents who handled two or more transactions in Arlington, they averaged 4.7 transactions each.
• Only two agents with 5-plus transactions averaged $2 million or more per transaction: Mark McFadden and Jennifer Thornett.
• Keri Shull and her team once again led Arlington in transactions and sales volume, by a wide margin, participating in roughly 8.4% of the transactions in Arlington and handling about 4% of the total sales volume in Arlington. Keri, of course, has a great team of agents and staff supporting this activity. In an article I wrote in 2019, I explained how different agents/teams are structured.

Most studies suggest that consumers are less concerned with measures like sales volume and are more focused on the strength of communication and trustworthiness of the agent they’re working with, but market expertise and experience are still important factors for most people.

While some may see the low barrier to entry to real estate licensing and a high volume of agents as a negative, it also means that you have a lot of choices as a consumer and, with some effort, can make sure that you’re working with somebody who provides the type service you’re looking for.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local Real Estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: What design trends are you seeing this year?

Answer: Over the past few years, home design has turned from neutralized white/grey trends that have been popular for most of the last decade, especially in new construction, to include warmer colors and more natural looks, though these trends have yet to show up in most new construction projects I’ve seen (single-family and condo).

Each year, every design magazine, paint company and furniture store comes out with their annual design trends. I collected some of the most common trends I found across all of them, as well as those that I’m seeing show up more in homes in the D.C. metro, and compiled them into some fun graphics.

The impact of COVID shows up in a big way in many trends, including trying to bring the outside in (plants/indoor gardens and wood-grain kitchens) and getting more out of existing spaces (closet-offices and outdoor kitchens). Let me know what you think and if you’ve introduced any of these colors, designs or improvements to your home recently!

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Are you able to tell how much of the appreciation in the overall Arlington housing market is from homes in the upper or lower price ranges?

Answer: I’ve often wondered if the appreciation in Arlington’s housing market is driven more by the lower, middle or upper end of the market. My theory, prior to doing an analysis, was that homes in the lower price ranges were appreciating faster than those in the upper ranges, thus affordability was suffering more than any other category of housing.

To test this theory, I split each year into a lower, middle and upper third and found the median price within each price range. (Note: The numbers for average prices looked very similar.) I split the market into single-family/townhouses and condos for a more accurate picture of actual market behavior.

As it turns out, for the single-family/townhouse and condo markets, the upper third of the market has appreciated more over the past 10 years than the lower and middle thirds. As is usually the case, single-family homes and townhouses appreciated much faster than condos during the same period, with single-family/townhouses practically doubling the rate of condo appreciation over the past 10 years.

Explanation of Charts: Appreciation and Market Speed

Below you will see charts showing the median price of the lower, middle and upper price tiers for single-family/townhouses and condos in Arlington over the past 10 years. I also included a chart showing the cumulative appreciation for each price tier to highlight when each market experienced the greatest price jumps or most price stability.

The last two charts show the same concept but applied to days on market. Specifically, looking at what percentage of homes went under contract within the first seven days on the market. I’ve always felt like this metric is one of the best ways to understand how fast the market is moving and the intensity of demand.

All three price tiers show similar speed/intensity of demand over the years, with the only noticeable difference being the upper third of single-family/townhouses, which is likely skewed by new construction. New construction often has a much higher days on market number because of how often homes are listed before they’re finished.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Answer: Thank you to the ARLnow reader who brought Virginia House Bill 1842 to my attention because it’s likely to be a game-changing law. This bill will allow condo boards to more easily ban smoking inside units and on balconies — not just in common areas. As of Feb. 17, 2021, the bill passed the Virginia House and Senate and, per my conversation with staff of the bill’s sponsor, Delegate Mark Keam, it’s now on its way to the Governor’s desk to become Virginia law as of July 1, 2021.

This is incredible news for many condo owners and residents who have suffered from the health and environmental hazards of a neighbor who smokes inside their unit or on their balcony. Over the years, I’ve written more about condo smoking bans than any other non-market topic because of how much interest and positive feedback I receive on the topic — so much that I hosted a panel discussion about it in 2019.

A full summary of the bill is shared below, but the key text from the bill includes, “…the executive board of a condominium unit owners’ association to establish reasonable rules that restrict smoking in the condominium, including rules that prohibit smoking in the common elements and within units…”

Under current laws, a smoking ban within units can only be done by way of a formal bylaw amendment, which can be overly burdensome for most communities and take years to see through. The only “easy” smoking ban allowed by law was a ban in general common areas. Even limited common areas (e.g. balconies) require a bylaw change under the current laws.

I am no legal expert, and I’m sure the language in the bill can be interpreted a number of different ways, but this bill seems to give condo boards/owners a very good chance of banning smoking within units. I’d love to hear from any readers who have the legal background to interpret just how likely or unlikely the language in this bill is to allow complete smoking bans.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How is the real estate market doing so far this year?

Answer: 2020 ended with a surging single-family and townhouse market, especially farther west from buyers looking for more house and yard space, but a struggling condo market from an unusually high volume of condo inventory for sale and tepid condo demand. So what have we seen in the first six weeks of the 2021 real estate market?

Single-Family and Townhouse Prices Up

The single-family and townhouse market is appreciating even further above where prices settled in 2020, with more competition (double-digit multiple offers). Through deals I’ve been involved in and conversations I’ve had with colleagues, my unofficial estimate is that many single-family homes and townhouses are selling for 5-10% more than 2020 prices. I’m seeing this type of appreciation at all different price points, too.

Condo Market Better, Slow Improvement Expected

The condo market worsened monthly from about June 2020 to November 2020, but it reversed course a bit in December and remained slightly improved in January. I see the condo market picking back up at a slow pace and likely to continue improving through the spring as demand hopefully/probably picks up, but I don’t see a return to the pre-COVID condo market any time soon.

Let’s take a look at some key charts for Arlington and Northern Virginia (Fairfax and Loudoun counties).

Arlington Months of Supply

Months of Supply is one of my favorite metrics because it combines supply and demand. The lower the Months of Supply, the more favorable a market is for sellers. Housing economists say that a well-balanced market has about six months of supply.

Single-family homes in Arlington hit an all-time low for Months of Supply in December and January, coming in at just a touch over one month, while the condo market has settled into just under 2.5 months of supply, which is about average for Arlington condos, save the two years after the Amazon HQ2 announcement.

New Listing Volume in Arlington

The number of condos listed for sale in January remained high, coming in 66.7% higher than January 2020. The number of single-family homes listed for sale remained stable, with an increase of just 11.9% over January 2020.

Dramatic Shift in Fairfax and Loudoun

If you think buying a house in Arlington is difficult, just try buying a house in Fairfax or Loudoun County, where single-family Months of Supply has dropped below one month to two to three weeks! This represents a much bigger shift in market conditions than what we’ve experienced in Arlington, which has been more competitive for longer.

Northern Virginia Condo Supply

All three Northern Virginia counties charted below (Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun) have seen a spike in condo supply over the last 6-plus months, but condo absorption has actually increased by enough in Loudoun County to not only offset the increased supply but to also cause Months of Supply to drop to 10-plus year lows of two weeks. Arlington County and Fairfax County have gone the other direction, with significantly higher Months of Supply.

If you’d like to discuss buying or selling strategies, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local Real Estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at 703-539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C Arlington VA 22203. 703-390-9460.