Ask Eli

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: What are your thoughts on the recent class action lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors?

Answer: You’ve probably read headline news over the past week about the Kansas City jury that found the National Association of Realtors and two of the nation’s largest brokerages, HomeServices of America and Keller Williams, guilty of colluding to keep Realtor commissions high via the use of the “clear cooperation” rule, which required there to be an offer of compensation to buyer agents/brokers for properties listed in an MLS.

The lawsuit awarded plaintiffs in Missouri, Kansas, and Illinois damages of $1.78B, which gets automatically “trebled” (tripled) by the court to $5.36B. Numbers that the defendants don’t come remotely close to having in combined cash and/or assets.

If you missed it, here’s a Housing Wire article with a good summary of the lawsuit, without subjective commentary. The lawsuit and others like it (there was a similar lawsuit settled a month ago and another copycat lawsuit recently filed) are a huge deal for the residential real estate industry and consumers.

I’m not going to waste your time making predictions about the legal process this and similar lawsuits will follow, you can google the lawsuit for plenty of opinions. It’s a massively complex issue from a legal and practical standpoint and nobody can honestly say they know where this will lead in the next six months or six years. It could end up at the Supreme Court years from now or it could send shockwaves through the residential real estate industry by next year.

I’m going to share my thoughts on a few of the ideas the lawsuit was built on, some of the more popular opinions I’ve read in the news, and things I find particularly difficult to solve in all of this.

There are reasonable, strong arguments to be made on both sides of most of the issues revolving around this topic. Most of what you’ll read/hear in the media is going to focus on opinions and ideas that are anti-Realtor “Cartel” because it appeals to the masses and generates traffic and eyeballs. I’ll touch on both sides of the argument in some cases, in others I’ll offer my perspective from inside the industry.

This is Mostly About Seller’s Paying Buyer Agent Commissions

Most MLS’s and Associations require(d) there to be an offer of compensation to the buyer agent/broker on a property listed for sale in the MLS; you could not sell something on-market with zero buyer-agent compensation. The lawsuit claims that ~500,000 sellers in MO, IL, and KS included in the class action lawsuit would not have offered/paid this compensation had it not been required and the $1.78B is the amount they “overpaid” in commissions.

The way most market transactions are structured (and have been for 2-3 decades) is that the seller agrees, prior to selling, to pay their broker X% and that amount is usually split evenly between the seller’s broker and the buyer’s broker, which is explicitly stated in the Listing Agreement. For reference, here’s the study I did this year on 2022 buyer-agent commissions in Arlington. There is clearly a “market” price for buy-side commissions.

While required, there is nothing that prevented offers of compensation of $1 or something well below the market, but people (consumers, agents, brokers) rarely chose that option. The plaintiffs in the case were able to make a strong enough case that sellers were forced to offer compensation at market rates and did not know they had a choice.

What if Sellers Stop Paying Buyer Agent/Broker Commission?

This is where it gets interesting and difficult, practically speaking. I could write a few columns on this topic and may do so over time, but I’ll keep it simple here.

Representation on both sides of the transaction is important. Yes, there are plenty of examples of bad representation and consumers who saw little or even negative value in their representation, but for the most part, studies show that buyers and sellers value having independent, professional representation in real estate transactions.

Sellers paying buyer broker commission makes sense and doesn’t make sense all at the same time.

It makes sense because it’s a cost taken out of proceeds for the sale rather than an out-of-pocket expense, so it’s much easier for a seller to receive less than a buyer to pay more. Anybody who has owed taxes understands the significance of how different paying taxes feels when it’s taken out of your paycheck vs cutting a big check to Uncle Sam.

It doesn’t make sense because of the obvious… why should I pay for your representation?

The problem, and I mean problem for consumers not for Realtors because of lost commission, is that if there’s a fundamental change to commission structure and sellers generally stop paying buy-side commission, the result is that most buyers cannot afford to tack on additional closing costs to their transaction and lenders will not allow it to be rolled into the loan (maybe this changes in the future). Wealthier buyers may be able to afford to hire buyer agents, but this scenario all but guarantees an even more difficult path to home ownership for those who can’t afford it.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: I’m staring at another winter with a drafty, chilly house. Do you have any recommendations for ways of identifying the problem areas and prioritizing the solutions?

Answer: I’ve used very few posts to promote a product or service, but in the case of home energy audits I don’t think that most people are familiar with them, and I’ve personally found a ton of value in having them done and have clients who have found a lot of value in them as well.

It can be a worthwhile investment for a range of use cases including those who live in a drafty old house, anybody with a couple of rooms that are unusually hot/cold, or the owner of a new home who wants to quality check the construction and installation of energy-related systems.

Note: I’m not getting anything from the vendor I recommend later in this post, this is a good faith recommendation for something I think more people should consider.

What is a Home Energy Audit?

A home energy audit is a series of tests done on your home to measure its energy efficiency and test the operation of many of your homes core systems including how tight/leaky your home is (via blower door test), the effectiveness of your insulation, how well your heating and cooling systems are working (if they’re drawing enough air, leaky air ducts, etc), the CFM (amount of air being extracted) of your bathroom exhaust fans, gas leaks, areas with elevated moisture, and more.

I pulled some examples of test results from different reports I’ve seen and shared them below.

Examples of infrared results identifying air leaks and cold spots:

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

What is Your Why?

Any way you slice it these days, it’s tough to be a buyer. Your selection of homes available for sale is lower than usual because so few homes are being listed for sale and mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been since ~2000, but prices (and competition) remain high, and are unlikely to fall because of tight supply.

Most of the conversation around the advantages of home ownership focus on the financial benefits — wealth/equity accumulation, appreciation, tax incentives, etc but those financial incentives have weakened over the last 12-14 months for many buyers but there are plenty of non-financial reasons people have for wanting to own their home like stability, greater choice, control over your environment, and fulfilling personal goals.

Non-Financial Considerations

The conversation around homeownership vs renting must include the financial pros and cons, but too often the non-financial reasons don’t get enough attention. For example, I often find that people in a transitional period in their lives do not properly value the flexibility of renting. That flexibility can even turn into a financial benefit as well.

On the flip side, I rarely hear people factor in the importance of being able to control their own environment when they’re weighing homeownership. You are a product of your environment and being able to investment in the improvements and maintenance that are important to you can have a significant effect on your day-to-day happiness and well-being.

If I missed your primary reason for home ownership in the poll, please add yours to the comment section.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10CA

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Answer: Last week I joined ARLnow founder Scott Brodbeck for a live podcast discussing a range of local real estate topics including market conditions, the struggle of buying, Missing Middle, and more! Scott and I hope to continue doing live podcasts when there is a good intersection of news and real estate.

Look for us to go live on social media so that you can listen in or ask questions live on the podcast.

The full podcast transcript is copied below, if you’d like to search for specific words and look at where it’s discussed in the video.

Scott: [00:00:00] All right. So thank you for joining us today. We’re going to talk for about half an hour this afternoon about the state of the Arlington real estate market. This is the first time we’ve done anything like this live. So it’s a bit of an experiment. So bear with us if some of the technology does not go perfectly.

So Eli, you are noted by our readers from your Ask Eli column for just having mounds of data from which you pull insights. What is your take on the current state of the real estate market in Arlington, where we have 8 percent interest rates, and it seems like a weird place. Help us out. What’s going on?

Eli: Yeah, so it is a weird place. And where we’re at now is oftentimes, not just this year, but in other years, you get some scary feelings about what’s next. Things start to slow down and it’s generally a fairly significant slowdown from earlier in the year. And so we are experiencing fairly normal seasonality right now.

The metrics are [00:01:00] aligned with what we usually experience this time of year. Demand is petering off. Inventory is slowing down. Properties are sitting on the market a bit longer. There’s more price reduction. So this happens this time every single year, and oftentimes people make the mistake of getting lulled to sleep and thinking that they can just let the holidays come and roll easily into the next year and buy. But that’s what everybody plans to do and oftentimes we see demand in the market quickly turn by the second or third week of January. But what we’re seeing is a little bit extreme of a version of some of those data points. And it’s because both buyers and sellers are getting pulled away from the market because of primarily the high interest rates.

There’s a lot of both parties sitting on the sideline. And so the change in days on market that we’re experiencing now is more significant [00:02:00] than compared to earlier this year than what we would experience in a normal year. We do have a larger percentage of properties on the market that are reducing their price, but we’re talking about just percentages.

So right now in Arlington, I think something a little under 40 percent of homes have reduced the price that are sitting on the market. That’s normally like in the mid thirties. And so it’s similar, but a little bit more extreme version of that. We’ve got low inventory, but an extreme version of it, right?

We are down 20, 30 percent in the amount of inventory that would normally be coming to market this time of year, even though it’s normally still pretty slow. And all of that, even though demand is particularly slow because of high interest rates, there’s enough sellers sitting things out and sitting on the sideline and keeping supply low that it’s like this balancing effect on the supply demand. And prices are mostly staying level. There’s more deals [00:03:00] out there right now than you would expect in early part of the year, but we’re certainly not bottoming out, even though it might seem that way to some sellers who after three weeks don’t have an offer and their hair’s on fire a little bit, but that’s normal for this sort of this time of year.

Scott: So if you were to compare this market to let’s say 10 years ago, I don’t remember where the interest rates were 10 years ago, but it certainly wasn’t at two and I believe lower than eight, correct me if I’m wrong,

Eli: — four fives ish. In the early part of the decade there. We had moved into a low interest rate environment due to the stimulus and everything from the great recession and it was low rates. And so I think generally, if I recall, we were in the fours and fives.

Scott: So is this at all comparable to that market where the interest rates were a little slightly higher than they were a few couple of years ago? I don’t know. I was not in the real estate market myself at that point.

Eli: You know, the most recent memory people have of major shifts in the real estate market [00:04:00] is the great recession, right? Is kind of 11, 12, right? And people have been looking for patterns that would suggest we are moving into a similar pattern as that, but it’s just a totally different situation. It’s a wildly different set of economics that we’re dealing with. It’s not comparable really at all. That shock was one brought on by collapsing mortgages, enormous supply, people unable to afford their homes, short sales and foreclosures, which were sending tons of inventory to the market while at the same time, demand was down because markets were collapsing in general, stock prices were down, people were losing their jobs. And that’s why prices dropped. And so the recovery phase was a winding down of all that inventory and a rebuilding of demand as people started to get more confident around 11, 12, 13. We don’t have [00:05:00] that kind of inventory, right?

And so prices are not falling. I think it, one, speaks to the kind of the stability and strength of the Arlington market and the local D.C. area market. That’s what a lot of the markets in the country are experiencing just because supply is so low. So it’s not allowing the week in demand and the interest rates to really push prices down.

And so there’s not really a lot of similarities to what we had happening 10 to 15 years ago. And this interest rate shock is significant if rates come down a little bit, like they did moving through the recession, which helped to stimulate some of the market. If we drop by a percentage or two, I think, hold on, right?

If the average rate comes down to five and a half, 6%, which I don’t think it will anytime soon, but if something happens that causes that to happen relatively quickly. I mean, hold on, there’s going to be a wave of buyers coming off the market. And are off the bench and much faster than sellers will come off the [00:06:00] bench and decide it’s time for them to move.

And things could get pretty interesting.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: How have rental prices and purchase prices changed in relation to each other over the last few years?

Answer: This is not going to be a column about whether you should rent or buy, there are plenty of those. Rather, I’m offering a data comparison of how rental and purchase prices and demand metrics in Arlington have changed in relation to each other since 2018.

We all know that both have gotten mind-numbingly expensive over the last few years, but there’s not really a third option (aside from crashing with Mom and Dad) so everybody is faced with the same decision of whether it’s a better decision/value proposition for them to rent or buy — hopefully this column helps with that decision.

Note: the rental data used below is limited to what is in the MLS, which is a limited data set of the Arlington rental market but it is more than enough data to allow us to capture an accurate reading of the rental market.

Buy a Condo, Rent a House?

Since 2018, the average price of a single-family home has gone up by significantly more (+28.3%) than the average cost of renting a house (+20.7%) in Arlington (note: this does not take mortgage rates into consideration) whereas the average cost of renting a condo (+12.9%) has gone up much more than the average cost of buying a condo (+8%) during that time.

Another way of looking at the price relationship between sale prices and rental rates is to look at the multiple of the average cost to buy compared to the average cost of a 12-month rental. Using the table below, we learn that condo prices are the cheapest they’ve been since 2018 relative to the cost of renting, which may very well be due to high mortgage rates pushing more demand towards renting and away from buying condos.

We can see a modest decrease this year in the cost of buying a house relative to renting, after five straight years of that multiple increasing. This is also likely due to mortgage rates shifting more demand than usual towards renting.

The other key takeaway from the table below is just how much more it costs to buy a single-family home relative to renting one in comparison to buying vs renting a condo.

Renting Ain’t Easy

Unfortunately for those fed up with purchase prices, high mortgage rates, and low inventory for purchase, deciding to rent isn’t exactly an easy way out. Not only have rents increased significantly since 2021 — by 10.5% for single-family homes and 15.1% for condos (yes, it’s higher than the increase since 2018 because rents fell in 2020 and 2021) — but the rental market has gotten much more competitive in that time with properties renting more than twice as fast as they did in 2019 and about six times faster than they did in 2018!

The demand metrics below show just how competitive the rental market has gotten over the last two years, because of higher prices and mortgage rates pushing more demand towards rentals. For reference, depending on the season and type of property, about 40-60% of homes for sale go under contract within seven days and usually sell for 99-101% of the original asking price.

How to Use this Data to Decide on Buying vs Renting

The data in the first section suggests that the smart financial decision is to buy a condo and rent a house, right? No, not really. This data isn’t meant to answer your buy vs rent question, rather it can be a helpful input amongst the many other considerations that factor into which decision is right for you/your family.

For example, you may walk away from this column feeling that renting a house is a better financial decision, but the reality of renting a single-family may not actually work for you — it’s harder to find what you want from a rental, you give up a lot of control over the home’s maintenance and condition, you may not be able to live there as long as you’d like, etc.

Condos (and apartments) are a different story though, you have significantly more options from individually owned condos to commercially managed apartment buildings and there a fewer maintenance and condition issues that might negatively affect your day-to-day living and enjoyment of the property.

At the end of the day, the decision to rent or buy should include a wide range of factors and be based on your individual situation, not the opinion of one or two people in the business of making content or who financially benefit from your decision. I do think that a mistake many people make is that once they’ve owned a home, they never consider renting as an option again. I think that for every move you need/want to make, you should give serious consideration to both renting and buying, allowing yourself to revisit assumptions you’ve made, challenge your reasoning, and consider current market conditions.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10CA

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: We are finalizing our 2024 condo budget. Do you have any advice for ways to save money?

Answer: As a former Condo Board Treasurer, I feel the pain that this time of year brings, so I’m happy to offer some advice that helped me finding savings while I oversaw the budget and has helped other Associations do the same… review your Master Insurance Policy.

I know, it’s not the most exciting answer, but your insurance policy is likely a top three expense every year and if you haven’t reviewed it lately, there’s a good chance you can cut the cost by 10% or more and probably improve your coverage at the same time.

I’m not an expert in insurance so, I asked Andrew Schlaffer, President of ACO Insurance to provide some details on what Boards should look for when they do a review of their Master Policy. If you’d like to discuss a review with Andrew directly, you can reach him at 703-595-9760 or [email protected]. Take it away Andrew…

Hardening Markets, Increasing Premiums, Decreases in Coverage

The condominium insurance marketplace is facing challenges that will impact homeowners in 2024 and beyond. The combination of catastrophic storms and reduced reinsurance capacity continue to wreak havoc on many communities worldwide causing some property insurance markets to increase rates and/or exit the habitation market entirely. Through the first two quarters of this year, on average, US property insurance renewal rates increased by 20%. Water damage claims are still among the loss leaders impacting Unit Owners locally, along with fire damage and wind/hail claims. The DMV is home to many aging condo buildings that continue to struggle with mitigating water damage losses and their impact on insurance premiums.

As water damage claims continue to rise and property damage costs increase, many insurance carriers are beginning to make changes to their coverage offerings that may increase your risk exposure. A few examples of these coverage changes include increased deductibles, per unit water damage deductibles, removing coverage for Sewer or Drain Backup and Wind-Driven Rain.

In general, condominium property rate increases in the DMV have been significant and unpredictable. Much of the pricing impact can depend heavily upon carrier underwriting discretion which highlights the importance of your insurance professional specializing in this space. It is unheard of for Master Insurance policies to receive between a 10% to 20% property rate increase. For struggling communities, these rates are much higher.

The umbrella/excess liability carrier marketplace has also faced tremendous disruptions. There are several factors driving these rate increases including but not limited to: COVID-19 impacts, years of underpricing, reinsurance rate increases, and the rise of nuclear verdicts (claims over $10MM).

Additionally, there have been several specialty real estate programs who no longer offer umbrella/excess liability options for the habitational industry which has put a lot of strain on remaining carrier markets to fulfill the increase in demand. Many communities can expect umbrella/excess liability rates to increase between 10% to 25% this year. 

Pillars of Insurance Reviews

Condo insurance reviews require a holistic approach, so it’s important to break the cost into a few distinct categories: insurance premium, deductible expense, and out-of-pocket costs. To effectively accomplish long-term savings, all three of these categories need to be considered and addressed with a qualified insurance professional.

Adjust Coverage Responsibly to Save on Premium

Premium is certainly a factor to consider during the insurance selection process; however, available insurance products differ significantly. Coverages and services should be very carefully analyzed and compared. While omitting various coverages will save premium dollars, it might also result in substantially increased costs to the Association for out-of-pocket expenses related to uncovered claims.

It is critical to work with a professional who understands local insurance needs and can adjust your insurance program in a way that maximizes premium savings while maintaining adequate insurance coverage. Some coverages may be required by statute and/or Association documents, so cutting required coverage exposes the Board to unwanted risk.

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

I’ve written this weekly column for 8 (!) years and made plenty of social media posts for my business, yet my most viral moment (by a long shot) came two weeks ago from…a picture of a bird! But not just any picture of a bird, it was a BALD EAGLE with a RABBIT in its talons! In Arlington!

So even though this has nothing to do with real estate, I thought I’d share with everybody the photo below that went “viral” and got almost 4,500 likes/interactions and 350 shares in the Virginia Wildlife Facebook Group. And later written about in The Zebra, an Alexandria-based publication.

I live in Alcova Heights and was walking to Thai Square (best Thai food in Arlington) for dinner with a friend when we turned the corner onto S Glebe Rd, just north of Columbia Pike, and saw this eagle perched on the wall with a freshly caught rabbit hanging from its talons. It sat there for a while posing for photos and letting us gawk, until taking off in a low glide across the parking lot, with the rabbit hanging below it. The wingspan must have been 6-7+ feet.

Check out how close it let us get in the video below, which I stopped filming as soon as it turned and looked me directly in the eyes and I decided my life was more important than continuing to film!

If you’ve captured some crazy wildlife photos in Arlington, let’s have it shared in the comments section!

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10CA

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

In two weeks, I’ll be hosting my first ever Ask Eli Home Buyer Workshop, with my business partner Jean Ropp and Loan Officer, Jake Ryon, with First Home Mortgage.

Catering will be provided by our local favorite, Ruthie’s All Day!

The workshop is free and will cover:

• How to use data and strategy to maximize the home purchase process
• How to use market trends to your advantage
• The latest on interest rates and mortgage programs/products
• 5 common mistakes to avoid and some tips for success

Who is it for?

• Any buyer type from first-time buyer to experienced buyers
• Ready to purchase now or planning 18-24 months out
• Home buyers in Northern Virginia, D.C., or the Maryland Suburbs
• You or anybody you know who would benefit

Where and When?

• Tuesday, October 3 from 6-7 p.m.
• Our Ballston office at 4040 N Fairfax Drive 10th Floor, Arlington, VA

Registration is free and is now open — space is limited. Click on the event graphic to RSVP. Bring your appetite and your home buying questions!

I’d love to see you there. Feel free to email me at [email protected] with any questions about the event.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10CA

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: In the six months since Arlington passed Missing Middle, what have you seen and what do you think of it?

Answer: It’s been about six months since Arlington passed the Expanded Housing Options (EHO) aka Missing Middle (MM) zoning changes, allowing the construction of 2-6 unit properties on lots that were previously zoned exclusively for single-family homes. There has been much excitement and angst about it changing the fabric of our community, but it seems to me that the outcome will be much milder than many people expect. Unfortunately (or not?), it seems like it won’t go far enough to make the proponents happy but goes far enough to make the opponents angry.

For those who want more of an introduction to Missing Middle, you can read my initial thoughts on MM from March. This week, I’ll share an assortment of thoughts and observations I’ve gathered over the last few months while I try to better understand what MM means for Arlington. I’ll caveat the entire column saying that MM is all very new, very much undeveloped, and we probably won’t understand where and how it will be most utilized for another 4-5 years.

Don’t Expect Floodgates to Open

More than a dozen Missing Middle applications were submitted during the first week the County opened applications (on July 1), but according to Arlington’s application tracker, there are currently 22 applications submitted and under review and 5 applications approved. I consider this to be a modest pace of applications, suggesting there’s not a huge appetite yet to build Missing Middle. I’ve run at least a dozen scenarios with builders and architects and have mostly found that the numbers don’t make sense or that the margins are too tight to justify given the risk of the unknowns (outsale prices/demand, permits, lawsuit, etc).

Initially, I expected MM to add significant value to many older, smaller Arlington homes right away and cause a bit of a frenzy in the marketplace. The limitations of the new zoning code coupled with uncertainties about market demand for MM products and the County’s permit process seem to have kept, from my observations, developers and investors from paying a premium for tear-down homes intended for Missing Middle development (the pending lawsuit is also a significant factor).

Based on my conversations, it seems that the approach many are taking is to apply a similar valuation to an acquisition as they would for single-family development so there’s a safe exit if the Missing Middle project doesn’t work out or the lawsuit prevents further development. Each investor will evaluate potential MM deals differently, but it seems unlikely, for now, that we’ll see a frenzy of buying at a premium over previous tear-down valuations. There will of course be exceptions for certain lots that set-up perfectly for MM.

Applications Don’t Mean Much

So far, all we’ve seen are applications for Missing Middle construction not actual construction, but it’s important to understand that applications, even the five approved applications, are a small first step towards delivering a Missing Middle project. The County does not charge an application fee and the requirements for an application are simple:

• Floor plans
• Building elevations
• Existing property plat and building location survey
• Proposed property plat and building location survey
• Landscaping and/or tree preservation plans

I think that many approved applications won’t get any further, especially after going through Arlington’s ever-changing Land Disturbance Activity (LDA) and Stormwater requirements (this comes after the MM application gets approved), which adds a lot of cost and complexity to construction projects in Arlington and hamper profitability.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the owners are hoping to sell their home with an approved Missing Middle application and set of plans, but don’t intend on actually building it themselves. That means they may not have done a true cost/profit analysis to determine if MM is financially viable or more profitable that a single-family development, so they might not get built.

One question I have for the County is that, given the limits on the number of applications they’ll allow each year, how will they clean out the application pool of applicants who decide not to build, sit on their application, or get stuck in the application process?

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This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: Are there any studies or data comparing the results of on-market vs off-market sales?

Answer: I hope everybody had a great Labor Day Weekend! Last week, we reviewed what the MLS/Bright MLS is which is a good lead into the recent study completed by Bright MLS that looks at the performance of properties sold on-market (via Bright MLS) vs off-market (not listed for sale in the MLS). For those so inclined, the study provides a detailed explanation of their methodology that led to the data reported in this article.

Selling On-Market = Listing in MLS

When people talk about selling or buying homes on or off the market, they are generally referring to whether or not that home was listed in an MLS. Our regional MLS is called Bright MLS and is the second largest in the country including most or all of Virginia, D.C., Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Penslyvania, and New Jersey.

Almost 95% of DC Metro Homes Sold on Market

The vast majority of homes are sold on-market, especially in the D.C. Metro, which has the largest percentage of on-market sales of anywhere in the Bright footprint with 90% of homes selling on-market in 2022 and 93.5% in 2023 Q1, up from 85% in 2019

Selling On-Market = Much Better Price for Sellers

The study went to great lengths to analyze the results of comparable properties (something they failed to do in their initial study in 2021) to provide an accurate measure of the difference selling through Bright MLS makes for sellers. The chart below shows how much more a comparable home sells for when sold via Bright MLS vs off-market/MLS.

The on-market premium has increased significantly over the last three years when the market has been running red-hot. Homeowners in the D.C. Metro earned 18% more on comparable homes sold on-market in 2023 Q1 and 15% more in 2022.

When the market heats up like it has the last few years, you often hear homeowners talk about how easy it is to sell a home off-market because there’s so much demand. Sure that is true, but the question is not whether or not you can sell the home off-market (of course you can), the question is whether or not that nets you the best result (it rarely does).

Why Sell Off-Market?

There are a number of scenarios where an off-market sales with limited exposure is justified — privacy (athletes/celebrities), security (high value personal possessions), interest from a family member, friend, or neighbor — and there are examples of off-market sales producing results that match or sometimes exceed what one might get via the MLS, but for the vast majority of homeowners, an on-market sale will produce significantly better results because of the tremendous increase in exposure to potential buyers.

Those considering an off-market sale should do so with a clear understanding of the disadvantages and measure those against your own reasons for considering an off-market approach.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C A

This regularly scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel. Enjoy!

Question: I often hear people reference the MLS or Bright when referring to properties for sale. Can you explain what these are?

Answer: If you’re buying or selling a home anywhere in the US, you may hear the term “MLS” and if you’re buying in the Mid-Atlantic “Bright” used a lot. The simplest way I describe it to people is that the MLS, short for Multiple Listing Service, is the real estate industry’s database(s) of record for property sales. There are hundreds of regional and local MLS’s across the country that act as the aggregator of properties for sale/rent.

Bright (MLS) is the name of our regional MLS and, with just over 110,000 participating agents, it is the second largest MLS in the country behind the California Regional MLS. Prior to 2017 it was called MRIS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems), but in 2017 it was rebranded to Bright after a merger with 8 other regional MLS’s mostly from PA, NJ, and DE.

The map below shows the current Bright MLS footprint, meaning brokerages/agents in all of these areas input their listings into the same platform. It covers 40,000 square miles and 20M people.

What is the MLS (Multiple Listing Service)?

The MLS is a real estate information exchange platform and database created by cooperating residential real estate brokerages to improve the efficiency of their real estate market. As a privately created and managed organization, each MLS is primarily funded through the dues of the brokerages and agents within the market it serves. There are hundreds of MLS’s across the country and each operates under its own direction, and rules and regulations.

The information you find on consumer-facing websites like Zillow comes from various MLS’s and each MLS has the right to negotiate its own relationship (syndication agreements) with these sites and determine what information is made available.

Without the MLS concept, we would have an extremely fragmented industry that would make it difficult for buyers to ensure they are seeing most/all of what is for sale within their sub-market and it would be much more difficult for sellers to get top dollar because they would not have access to the entire buyer market. 

What is Bright MLS?

Bright is the MLS that serves the mid-atlantic region including all of, or most major markets in, Virginia, Washington, D.C., Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, and Delaware.

The Executive Committee and Board of Directors is made up of representatives from the region’s major brokerages and directs the business of Bright, which has developed into a full-blown software, services, and technology company. Bright has adopted a strict set of rules and regulations to provide data uniformity and ensure fair play such as restrictions on marketing properties for sale that are not entered into the MLS, as discussed in this article.

MLS is a Net Benefit to Consumers and Agents

Your interaction with Bright MLS is likely to come from listings that your real estate agent sends you directly from the system, but you are also indirectly interacting with Bright whenever you search a 3rd party real estate site like Zillow because their data is pulled from Bright (and other MLS systems across the country).

While at time frustrating for brokerages, agents, and consumers (personally, I think there’s so much more they can do with data and their consumer-facing tech), the MLS structure is a tremendous net benefit for the industry and consumers by combining home sale data into one database with a common set of requirements and rules of engagement. This allows the entire industry to function more efficiently than it did prior to the MLS concept, which has led to lower commission fees.

The biggest example for consumers (and I’d also argue to Realtors) is that since Zillow and other consumer-facing sites began aggregating listing information for public use, real estate agents are no longer the “gate-keepers” of listing information and consumers have direct access to practically everything that is on the market (entered in an MLS) in nearly real-time.

If you’d like to discuss buying, selling, investing, or renting, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to discuss buying, selling, renting, or investing, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Video summaries of some articles can be found on YouTube on the Eli Residential channel.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N Fairfax Dr #10C A