Ask Eli

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How did the Arlington real estate market do in 2019?

Answer: Arlington’s real estate market made the national news cycle more than a few times in 2019 with some pretty extraordinary references to rapid appreciation — some accurate and some not. I’ve seen prices in some pockets of the market surge 15-20% in 2019, but for most of the market, appreciation was strong but not eye-popping.

Overall, the average and median price of a home sold in Arlington in 2019 was $705k and $610k, a 6.3% and 8.9% increase over 2018, respectively. Average days on market dropped by one week and an incredible 61.4% of buyers paid at or above the seller’s original asking price. The number of homes listed for sale in 2019 dropped about 17% compared to 2018 and demand surged, with buyers absorbing about 67% more inventory in 2019 than in 2018.

This week I will dig into how Arlington’s condo market performed in 2019 and next week I’ll do the same for the detached single-family home and townhouse market. I did separate write-ups on the 22202 (Amazon zip code) condo and detached home markets last month.

Arlington Condo Market Performance

First we’ll take a look at some of the key measures for market performance across Arlington and within North and South Arlington. This data excludes age-restricted housing (The Jefferson), Cooperatives (River Place) and townhouse-style condos (Fairlington).

• The condo market seems to have appreciated 7-8% in 2019, after experiencing barely any growth from 2013-2017 and modest growth in 2018
• South Arlington beat out North Arlington in every key category, which makes sense because it’s an easier price point for homeowners and investors who wanted some sort of real estate position in Arlington before Amazon’s hiring picks up
• The average condo buyer in South Arlington paid .8% over the seller’s asking price

Condos in North Arlington sold twice as fast as they did from 2015-2017. In South Arlington they sold more than three times faster than 2015-2016.

Performance of Different Sub-Markets

I took a look at some of the sub-markets that make up large cross-sections of Arlington’s condo market to see how they performed compared to the overall market.

For “standard” 1 BR and 2 BR condos in the Rosslyn-Ballston (R-B) Corridor I specifically looked at condos in buildings constructed during the 2000s condo boom with 650-800 sq. ft. (1 BR) and 950-1,200 sq. ft. (2 BR).

• “Standard” R-B 1 BRs appreciated 4% in 2019
• “Standard” R-B 2 BRs appreciated 5% in 2019

For “older” 1 BR and 2 BR condos, I looked at those constructed in the 1940s-1960s. This category of condos had been slow to appreciate and as of 2018, a lot of owners were still trying to dig out from 2005-2007 prices.

• Older 1 BRs appreciated 7.4% in 2019
• Older 2 BRs appreciated 10.5% in 2019

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Do you expect interest rates to remain low in 2020?

Answer: Mortgage rates increased sharply in 2018, peaking at 7+ year highs in the fall of 2018, and most experts expected that trend to continue into 2019 and for 30 yr rates to clear the 5% mark for the first time since spring 2010. However, changes in economic policy and financial markets pushed rates down at the end of 2018 and throughout 2019, coming close to all-time lows in the 2nd half of 2019.

Average 30 yr Fixed Mortgage Rate Since 1971

Average 30 yr Fixed Mortgage Rate Since 2010

Rates in 2020+

The Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac each predict that rates will remain low, right around current levels, through 2021 with an average 30 yr Fixed Rate hovering around 3.7-3.8% through that period. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates won’t start increasing until 2022, when they’re predicting the average rate to increase modestly to 4.1%.

If these projections are accurate, it should support strong price growth over the next few years in Arlington, Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. area.

However, keep in mind that just over 12 months ago, most experts predicted that mortgage rates would be over 5% by 2020 and, according to Freddie Mac, the average 30 yr Fixed Rate last week was 3.64%. Changes in the global or U.S. economy, the election, and the stock market can all change the course of rates in 2020 and beyond.

Lender Advice

If you’re considering purchasing in 2020, I wrote a column a few years ago about the value of a good lender that I’d encourage you to review. If you’d like to talk to somebody, I suggest reaching out to Jake Ryon of First Home Mortgage at [email protected].

If you’d like to meet to discuss buying or selling in the area, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: I have read articles about the 22202 zip code suggesting everything from extreme appreciation to homes now selling for pre-Amazon prices. Can you shed some light on what’s actually happening in that market?

Answer: A few weeks ago, I wrote part one, focusing on the performance of the 22202 (Amazon Zip Code) condo market so this week we’ll take a look at how the detached single-family market performed in the neighborhoods bordering Amazon HQ2.

One of the issues I mention in Part 1 is how much misinformation has been published elsewhere about price appreciation in 22202 and the Arlington/Alexandria markets.

This two-part column is one of my attempts to provide an accurate picture about what’s actually happening in our real estate market. The key takeaway is that the market performed very well (if you own, not if you’re a hopeful buyer) following the Amazon HQ2 announcement, but prices haven’t skyrocketed the way many articles would lead you to believe.

Market Make-up

The 22202 market offers a diverse supply of housing. This year, condos have sold from as little as $195,000 for a 500 sq. ft. studio to $1,250,000 for a 2,900 sq. ft. 3 BR/3 BA penthouse. The least expensive detached home sold for $630,000 to be torn down and the most expensive a 6 BR/4.5 BA for $1,600,000.

Homes in the area tend to be pretty old with most detached homes being built prior to the 1960s and only one condo building has delivered since 1990. Of the 139 homes to sell in 2019, 78 were in condo buildings, 50 were detached homes, and 11 were townhouses.

22202 Detached Single-Family Performance

The tables below represent sales in 2018 and 2019 split between those that went under contract before and after Amazon’s HQ2 announcement on November 13, 2018:

Like elsewhere in Arlington and the 22202 condo market, inventory levels took a big hit in 2019, dropping 33% from 75 sales in 2018 to 50 sales in 2019. Sales volume had ranged consistently between 69 and 76 sales since 2015.

The decline in sales certainly was not due to lack of demand, rather fewer properties hitting the market. This is evident from the sharp drop in average days on market (down 63%) and sharp increase in the average sold price to original asking price ratio (up 3%). In fact, the detached home market was so competitive that the average buyer paid over asking price.

Detached home prices in 22202 increased by an average of 9.2%, from $911k to $996k, and the median value increased by 8.5%, from $876k to $950k. Detached homes in the area vary so much from sale to sale that you can’t take the average or median price growth and apply that level of appreciation to all individual homes. When I dug into individual comparable sales pre- and post-Amazon announcement, I found that homes below ~$1M appreciated noticeably more than those above $1M, by about 12-15% and 5-8%, respectively.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Happy New Year/Decade ARLnow! Who would have thought that our little town whose claim to fame 10 years ago was a rap song about how many Starbucks we have would finish the decade as the 2nd home to a little internet book company called Amazon?

For those of you who have owned real estate over the last 10 years, congratulations, you deserve your champagne tonight!

Let’s take a look at how the Arlington real estate market changed over the last 10 years:

Arlington 100 Years Ago

Arlington Now

I hope you all end the decade on a celebratory note and I wish you well in the 2020s. For those of you eyeing a real estate move (buying, selling, investing, or renting) in 2020 or beyond, feel free email me at [email protected].

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Do you think it’s worth it to buy a home warranty and, if so, is there a provider you recommend?

What Is A Home Warranty?

Home warranties protect many of the systems in your home including things like the HVAC (heating and cooling) and appliances. If one of those systems stops working while you’re covered, the warranty provider will repair or replace the system or cut you a check to replace it yourself. One year of protection generally ranges from a few hundred dollars to one thousand dollars, depending on the scope of coverage.

The most common time to purchase a home warranty is for/by a buyer when they’re buying a home. However, sellers can also purchase a warranty and transfer the coverage to a buyer and also benefit from coverage if something comes up on the home inspection. Home owners can also buy a warranty at any time if they want coverage. The provider usually requires a month or so between the time of purchase and coverage taking effect to prevent people from buying a warranty when something goes wrong (pre-existing condition).

Are They Worth The Cost?

I generally find home warranties to be worth the cost for at least the first year of ownership. If the home you’re buying has old systems, consider buying multi-year coverage. Think of the expense like you would home or auto insurance. If you’re somebody who prefers to pay higher premiums for more coverage/peace of mind, a home warranty probably makes sense for you.

A common scenario I see where home warranties pay-off is with HVACs when a new owner transitions from heating to air conditioning in the spring. During the winter, it’s often to cold outside to test the air conditioning during the home inspection so AC issues may present themselves after closing. With a home warranty, those issues should be covered.

Recommendation: Super Home Warranty

Warranty companies have a pretty bad reputation with complaints ranging from difficulty filing claims, low quality contractors and lengthy delays. I actually stopped recommending warranties to clients because of these issues.

However, in the last couple of years I have had fantastic experiences with a newer home warranty provider called Super Home Warranty and I would highly recommend them. They’re responsive, have a good user platform/app, use high quality contractors for repairs and I’ve yet to run into unfair claim denials.

They also have some really valuable inclusions that other warranty companies don’t offer. They have a contractor concierge that gives you access to their vetted contractors for any work you need like tree removal, roofing, plumbing and remodeling. Super also offers a bunch of helpful services for $75 like re-keying locks, carpet cleaning and HVAC cleaning.

It’s worth noting that I don’t get anything from Super for recommending them.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: We are looking forward to buying our first home in 2020. Do you have any recommendations on how we should start the home buying process?

Answer: Google “home buyer tips” or “what to know before buying a home” and you’ll find plenty of advice on the topic, so I’ll include some suggestions I don’t see on most of those lists and also put my own spin on others that you have heard before.

Weighted Criteria

It’s easy to come up with 3-5 things that are most important to you, but challenge yourself early to come up with 12-15 things that are important to you. Then give yourself 100 points and allocate points to each based on how important they are to you and you’ll end up with a weighted criteria list to help you focus your search and objectively compare properties.

If you want to take it to the next level, bring your weighted criteria list with you on showings and score each house out of the total points allocated to it.

Length of Ownership

This is one of the most important conversations to have with yourself/your partner. You should focus on the following:

1. Likely length of ownership
2. Difference in criteria for a 3-5 year house vs a 10-12+ year house
3. Difference in budget requirements for a 3-5 year house vs a 10-12+ year house

Appreciation is not guaranteed and difficult to predict, but the value of longer ownership periods is undisputed. One way longer ownership adds value is the potential for eliminating one or more real estate transactions, and the associated costs (fees, taxes, moving expenses, new furniture, etc) and stress that comes with moving, over the course of your lifetime.

If you have an opportunity to significantly increase your length of ownership by stretching your budget, it’s often justifiable. On the other hand, if your budget or future plans restrict you to housing that’s likely to be suitable for just 3-4 years (and buying now still makes sense), it’s generally better to stay under budget.

Influencers (not the Instagram ones)

Family, friends, colleagues… they’re all happy to offer opinions and contribute to your home buying process, but the input can be overwhelming and unproductive if you don’t set boundaries. Try to determine up-front who you want involved in the process and how you’d like them to be involved.

Think about how you’ve made other major decisions in life — what college to attend, what kind of car to buy, where to get married, whether to change jobs — and if you’re the type of person who likes input from your friends and family, you’ll likely do the same when buying a house. Plan ahead with those influencers so their input is productive.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Do you have any guidance on choosing which Title Company to work with when buying or selling real estate?

Answer: Title companies handle the legal side of the transaction such as ensuring the buyer has clear ownership, reviewing and recording the deed, issuing title insurance, and preparing paperwork for the buyer and seller to sign at closing. They operate in the background of transactions and usually the less you hear from them, the better. They are not legal representatives of either party and objectively support the buyer and seller.

In Virginia (and D.C./MD), buyers select the title company. In some cases, a seller may want to use their own firm/attorney and will request a “split settlement” but that is less common and should be done for a good reason.

Most people don’t know a title attorney or get a referral from a friend, so how do you go about choosing your title company?

Your Real Estate Agent

You shouldn’t be hiring a real estate agent because they’re the first person to raise their hand to meet you at a property you found online. Among the reasons you hire an agent should be because you trust their advice and want access to their network of professionals who are relevant to a real estate transaction.

Your agent should be the first person you turn to for a recommendation on the title company. He/she has likely worked with dozens or hundreds of title companies before and hopefully has one or two to recommend.

It’s perfectly fair to ask your agent why they’re recommending a specific title company.

Fees

The highest fee associated with a title company is title insurance and those prices are set by the insurance company, not the title company. Different title companies work with different title insurance companies, but rates are similar (or identical) amongst them. If you see big differences in title insurance between two title companies, one may be quoting a basic vs enhanced coverage (buyer’s choice).

I rarely see discretionary fees charged by the title company vary by more than a few hundred dollars. You can always find a cheaper option for title services, but the legal support on a real estate transaction worth hundreds of thousands or millions may not be a smart place to save a few hundred dollars and risk quality of service.

Location

It’s important to use a local title company who is familiar with local real estate and tax practices, not just licensed to practice here. I use one title company (Universal Title) for Northern Virginia transactions and one title company for Washington, D.C. and Maryland transactions (District Title).

Attorney Experience

Most sales follow a pretty standard, predictable process that inexperienced title companies/attorneys can handle but occasionally something unexpected comes up that requires experience/expertise to identify and resolve an issue. If problems do surface, having access to an experienced local title attorney can be the difference in whether or not the problem is even identified, whether a sale closes, and/or how much time and stress it takes to resolve the issue.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

I published my first Ask Eli column on November 10, 2015, just over four years ago. 200+ columns later, I’m incredibly thankful for the ARLnow community for the opportunity to share my perspective on local real estate and explore interesting market trends with you each week.

Your feedback over the years, both privately and in public comments (yes, I appreciate every one of them) challenges and motivates me because I know my neighbors are actually reading.

I also want to thank Scott and his amazing team at ARLnow for building this platform and providing Arlington residents, workers and businesses with highly valuable, hyperlocal news. The operation they run far outsizes the people operating it, which speaks to their hard work and talents. If you want to express your gratitude for their dedication to free local news, their email address is [email protected].

From my family to yours, have a great Thanksgiving!

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with RLAH Real Estate, 4040 N. Fairfax Dr. #10C Arlington, VA 22203, (703) 390-9460.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: I’m in the process of searching for a real estate agent and having trouble understanding the different organizational structures. Can you explain how it works?

Answer: Most real estate agents operate as independent contractors within their brokerage (office), thus have autonomy to operate their business/service model as they choose. With over 12,000 Realtors in the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors alone, the organizational structures and business models vary widely to suit an agent’s style of business and/or target clientele.

I think it’s almost as important for home buyers and sellers to learn about their prospective agent’s operating model as it is to make sure they know your market. An agent’s operating model will impact your experience and you need to make sure it aligns with your expectations.

I’ll break down some of the organizational structures that are most common today so you have an idea of what to look for.

Brokerage

At the top of the organizational structure is the brokerage, which is best described as the office your agent works for. The brokerage is the legal entity involved in the transaction and when you sign a Buyer Representation or Listing Agreement, it’s actually with the brokerage, with your agent as the assigned representative of the brokerage.

Currently in D.C., most brokerages are made up of multiple agents, often dozens to hundreds, and function like a shared office. An agent cannot operate independently outside of a brokerage, but an individual agent can have their own broker’s license and operate an independent brokerage.

Most agents operate as independent contractors within their brokerage, but there are some models, Redfin being the most popular, where agents are employees.

Agent Models

In most cases agents operate individually or within a team, structured in some common ways:

1. Individual Agent, No Support: Many agents work independently without any sort of support staff. The advantage for clients is that you always know who you’ll be working with and who is handling every detail of your transaction. The main disadvantage is that there is a single point of failure if that person is unavailable.

2. Individual Agent With Administrative Support: Some independent agents hire one or more people to support administrative tasks like scheduling and marketing. Some brokerages also offer this type of administrative support to their agents. This should be an advantage over #1 because the agent has more time for high-value tasks, but it also requires the administrative support to be on top of things and strong communication between agent and admin.

3. Team Partnership: Two or more experienced agents with strong individual businesses may partner to share some administrative support costs and build a stronger brand together. For the client, it has many of the same qualities as #2, but there’s usually an added benefit of knowing that there’s at least one other experienced agent available as back-up in case your agent in unavailable.

4. Team Lead With Coordinators: An individual agent or partnership with a large book of business that uses specialized buyer and seller coordinators to support client activities. An advantage to clients is that the transaction is generally led/directed by an experienced agent and that there is no single point of failure, you’re working with a support team. A disadvantage is that some or many high-value pieces of the transaction are handled by coordinators, not the lead (experienced) agent.

5. Team “CEO” With Junior Agents: An experienced agent who acts more as a CEO, overseeing the operations of a large team of agents, and personally handling very few transactions, if any. Clients should benefit from systems and processes the “CEO” agent used to become successful, imparted on the junior agents. A disadvantage is that these teams often have dozens or more agents and the experience of those agents varies widely and don’t necessarily reflect the talent of the “CEO” agent.

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