Ask Eli

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How do prices in the Arlington housing market compare to prices in neighboring communities?

Answer: I hope everybody had a great Memorial Day Weekend! You may have read ARLnow’s post last week that the median price of a home in Arlington is up by $100,000 or 17% this year and if you’re in the market to buy a home, this is alarming news.

Arlington and Alexandria have quickly gotten too expensive for many buyers since Amazon announced plans to move its second headquarters to National Landing, so I thought I’d share how prices in other nearby communities compare to Arlington’s prices.

The following data is based on sales going back to January 2018.

Annandale: I think Annandale is one of the best investments in Northern Virginia over the next 5-10 years and I encourage buyers who don’t need easy Metro access and who are looking for value, proximity to D.C. and appreciation potential to strongly consider it.

Arlington: I don’t think we’ll see double-digit appreciation in Arlington after this year, but I do expect steady growth over the next 8-10 years, with the exception of any years slowed down by a market downturn.

Burke: Burke is popular for its combination of highly rated schools, VRE access, quiet residential neighborhoods and much home lower prices. Despite its distance from Arlington, the Amazon-effect is being felt here too; I’ve run into multiple offers and escalating prices over the last couple of months on properties that normally would have sat on the market for weeks or months.

Mclean: Host to many of Northern Virginia’s most expensive homes as well as its top-rated public schools, the average price of a townhouse or single-family home in Mclean is higher than Arlington, but with a lower $/sq. ft. your dollar usually goes further. Lot sizes also increase significantly over the average Arlington lot.

Vienna: Vienna is more Metro accessible than Mclean, Burke and Annandale, most of the schools have above-average ratings, and there’s a great downtown area along Maple Avenue. The downside for many commuters is the traffic along 66. Like Arlington, Vienna has a diverse housing inventory so there’s a good chance you’ll find what you’re looking for at a significant discount from Arlington and Mclean.

If you’re in the market for a home and struggling with the recent double-digit increase in prices in Arlington and Alexandria, I’d be happy to help you find other communities in Northern VA, D.C., or MD that will fit your budget. Send me an email to [email protected] to schedule time to meet.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: How has this year’s spring market compared to previous years?

Answer: I’ll provide an in-depth mid-year market analysis in July, but since we’re in the final weeks of the historically strong “spring market,” I thought it would be a good time to share County-wide market trends that represent what I’m seeing on the buying and listing side these days.

Hint: Great for sellers, frustrating for buyers.

Owners Holding Out For Amazon

One of the big questions I had post-Amazon HQ2 announcement was whether owners would decide to hold onto their homes longer in hopes of higher long-term returns from Amazon or whether they’d accelerate their plans to sell to take advantage of a quick bump in prices and a faster sale cycle.

The answer so far is that more owners are holding off on selling because new inventory is down significantly from last year, highlighted by a nearly 30% YoY decrease in new listings in April.

Low Supply Is Driving Prices To Record Highs

There has been a YoY increase in the average sold price since the Amazon announcement was released in November, highlighted by a 11.2% increase in April (chart #1). That increase led to an average sold price in Arlington over $742,000 which is the first time the average sold price broke $700,000 in 10+ years (chart #2).

The Average Buyer Is Paying Over Asking Price

For the first time in over 10 years, the average buyer is paying more than the asking price to secure a home in Arlington. In April, the average purchase price was .3% higher than the seller’s asking price.

Sales Are Going Through Much Faster

It is taking less and less time for a seller to find a buyer, with a YoY decrease in days on market each of the last six months, highlighted by decreases of 73% and 74.3% in March (median 10 days) and April (median 9 days), respectively.

If you’re interested in an analysis of how the current has impacted the value of your home or the value of the home you’re trying to buy, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected] to schedule a meeting.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: We bought an older home with original water and sewer lines. Who is responsible for the maintenance and replacement of these lines and how do I know if there’s a problem?

Answer: You are responsible for the main plumbing lines for water and sewage running between your home and the public lines. In most cases, the gas company is responsible for everything to and including the meter (attached to your home) and you’re responsible for the lines after the meter.

The main lines are usually buried under your front yard and replacement costs (water and sewage) often start at a couple thousand dollars and can easily exceed $10,000. Costs vary based on a few key factors including:

• Distance from the public line to your home
• Pipe material
• Type of excavation/installation (difficulty in digging up old plumbing, number of turns in new pipe)
• Cost to return landscaping to original state (this is on you, not the County)

In most cases, Washington Gas will return your property/landscaping to its original condition, including hardscape and your lawn (even your driveway), after excavating for repair or replacement. It’s not a bad idea to find out where your gas supply line is and plan landscaping with that in mind.

Identifying Problems

The life expectancy on many of the most common materials used for main plumbing lines range from 50-100 years, but tree root growth, unnatural disturbances like new landscaping, corrosion and pressure build-ups can cause leaks, blockages and other damage that you should monitor.

The most effective and most expensive way to look for problems is to hire a plumber to scope the lines with a camera to see if there are any issues. The cost of doing this often exceeds $500 per line, but can give you peace of mind or early warnings of a problem.

If you don’t want to pay a plumber to scope your lines, you can monitor for signs of a problem.

• Water Line: higher water bills, lower water pressure, flooding in yard when there isn’t rain
• Sewer Line: slow drainage/clogs in multiple areas of the house, foul smell inside or outside, odd behavior from plumbing like bubbling sounds
• Gas Line: if you smell a gas/rotten egg odor, hissing sound from a gas line/meter, hazy/cloudy near gas line, plants dying, issues with gas-powered appliances

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Are there any loan options you’d recommend if I don’t have 20% or more saved up for a down payment?

Answer: There are an abundance of loan products on the market that cater to different professions, down payments and financial circumstances that you should consider. “Rate shopping” is easy and moderately effective if done correctly (e.g. compare the APR not the interest rate), but “product shopping” can be much more valuable and something an informed real estate agent can assist you with.

Here are some of my favorite loan programs and the lenders I work with who provide them:

Homeowners Buying And Selling

Second Trust/HELOC Program from First Home Mortgage: Jake Ryon ([email protected], 202.448.0873)

This is a great program for current homeowners who will be buying and selling simultaneously. It allows you to use the future proceeds from your home sale to make a larger down payment on your new home, before selling your current home.

Through First Home Mortgage, Jake Ryon partners with local banks and credit unions to provide you with a second trust that allows you to put as little as 5% down up to nearly a $1,000,000 loan amount. The second trust finances the remaining amount of your down payment (e.g. 15% if you put down 5%).

The second trust payment is interest-only, can be paid off any time, and can be used like a bridge loan so you can purchase your next home without a home-sale contingency.

Doctors

Doctor Loan Program from SunTrust: CJ Kemp ([email protected], 301.651.4189)

The Doctor Loan Program is a residential mortgage loan specifically created for licensed medical professionals to make obtaining mortgage financing easier and more hassle-free. It recognizes the financial toll of medical school and strong, stable future income post-graduation. The rates on these loans are also fantastic!

Eligible Doctors include:

• Licensed Residents/Interns/Fellows in MD and DO programs
• Medical Doctors
• Doctors of Osteopathy
• Doctors of Dental Medicine/Surgeons/Orthodontics/General Dentists (DMD/DDS)
• Psychiatrist licensed as a Medical Doctor

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: We’re preparing to sell our home and are concerned that we won’t have enough time to move out after it sells. Is there a good time to ask the buyers if we can stay a bit longer?

Answer: A Seller’s Post-Settlement Occupancy, more commonly referred to as a rent-back, allows a home owner to sell their home, collect the proceeds and continue living in the home for a pre-determined period of time after closing.

The most common scenarios for a rent-back are:

1. You have a need for the sale proceeds quickly; such as applying them towards the purchase of your next home. A word of caution on this strategy — make sure that you’ll be able to find and close on your next home before the rent-back period ends (or already found it).

2. Moving out is burdensome and/or highly disruptive to your family and/or job that you don’t want to start the process until you’re under contract and all buyer contingencies have expired.

3. You need to remain in your home until the school year is finished.

How Rent-Backs Are Structured

The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors contracts (as well as other regional contracts) provide a standard form for a Seller’s Post-Settlement Occupancy Agreement so you don’t need to worry about hiring an attorney. It functions as a short-term lease including how much the seller will pay the buyer for the rent-back, how long the rent-back lasts, a security deposit, and a penalty for staying past the rent-back period.

Buyers will conduct a pre-closing walk-through before they purchase the home where they have all the rights provided to them in a normal sale. At the end of the rent-back, the new owners will conduct another walk-through once the previous owners move out, which is similar to that of a walk-through at the end of a normal rental period.

If the previous owners caused damage during the move-out, the new owners can make a claim against the security deposit, generally held by the Title Company who handled the sale.

Not Without Risk

For the new owners, a rent-back carries with it some of the same risks involved in being a landlord. Disputes over security deposit, damage in excess of the security deposit, or trouble with the previous owners moving out on time are all realities that buyers need to consider. As with many decisions in a real estate transaction, your willingness to agree to a rent-back is a matter of risk and reward.

The risk of problems like I mentioned is fairly low in most cases and the reward for accommodating a seller’s request for a rent-back can be the difference between them accepting your offer or taking somebody else’s.

Free Rent-Backs?

The fee for a rent-back is usually calculated off of the new owner’s carrying costs (mortgage + taxes + insurance), but in our hyper-competitive market, I’m seeing aggressive buyers offer seller’s a free rent-back as a way to increase the competitiveness of their offer. A free rent-back isn’t worth much if the seller is asking for an extra week, but it certainly adds up if they’re asking to stay for 6-8 weeks past closing.

On both sides of the transaction, the use and structure of a rent-back is one of many important strategic decisions you may face in this market. It’s a good example of an area where an agent who understands the local market and how to maximize your risk/reward position can add real value.

Whether you’re reaching out to me or not, I want to stress the importance of making sure you have the confidence in your agent to truly protect and maximize your interests through the entire transaction lifecycle.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: I’ve read that home prices in Arlington are up since the Amazon announcement so I’m trying to decide if I should go ahead and sell my home now or if it makes more sense to wait for more appreciation when Amazon employees start to arrive. What is your recommendation?

Answer: Amazon’s decision to move HQ2 to Arlington has made an immediate impact on the local housing market and many home owners are asking whether or not they should sell or hold. As with most real estate decisions, the answer is… it depends.

It depends on your personal goals and circumstances, but the good news is that you’re likely going to be happy with either decision. Here are a few points to consider that are relevant to the market we’re currently experiencing:

Why You Should Sell Now

1. Highest One-Year Appreciation? — My guess is that 2019 will be our highest one year appreciation over the next decade barring some other major corporate news. While I do expect Arlington to experience steady growth over the next ten years from Amazon and the “Amazon-effect,” I don’t think the impact will be as extreme as many people fear/hope (see excellent analysis by the Stephen S Fuller Institute).

If you’re holding out for 40-50%+ returns over the next 5 years, I’d reconsider your strategy.

2. Better Application of Equity — I think this is the most important, and most personal, reason to sell. If you can improve the quality of your life with the equity you have in your home (early retirement or larger home) or you have a more productive application of that equity (start a business or re-invest), selling now might make a lot of sense.

3. Looming Economic Downturn — There’s always somebody warning of the next economic doomsday, but consensus seems to be building that we will face an economic downturn within the next two years. The potential for an economic shift is much more important if your decision is between selling now or 2-5 years from now vs selling now or 10+ years from now.

4. Your House Needs Work — Supply is so low right now, and demand so high, that sellers can command premiums on their home even if it’s lacking in updates or curb appeal that may have made a sale difficult in the past.

5. Condo/Townhouse Owner — Condo and townhouse inventory is down over 50% in each of the last two quarters compared to the prior year, a significantly higher drop-off than single-family homes.

Over time, the County should be able to facilitate more supply of condos and townhouses through up-zoning so this may be the best time to sell yours, especially if you own a two-bedroom where year-over-year inventory is down about 60% the last six months.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: My condo association carries an expensive Master Insurance policy, but my lender is requiring that I purchase my own individual policy. What coverage do I gain from the individual policy that the master policy doesn’t include?

Answer: Every condo association has its own (expensive) Master Insurance policy to cover the common elements, but there are substantial gaps between the association’s policy and what you’ll personally be liable for without an individual HO-6 policy.

Most people shop for the cheapest, fastest individual insurance policy and apply just enough coverage to meet the lender’s requirements, but that may put you at risk.

To explain common gaps between master policies and HO-6 (individual condo) policies, I’d like to re-introduce Andrew Schlaffer, Vice President at USI Insurance Service’s Community Association Practice. Andrew is an expert in Master Insurance policies and has helped multiple local condo association’s reduce their cost and improve their coverage since writing a column on the topic last year.

If you’d like to contact Andrew directly to review your association’s master policy, you can reach him at 703-205-8764 or [email protected].

Take it away Andrew…

Increasing Claims, Increasing Coverage Gaps

The condominium insurance marketplace is facing challenges that will impact homeowners in 2019. Water damage is leading this list of challenges — according to the Insurance Information Institute, about one-third of homeowner insurance losses are caused by water damage and freezing. The DMV is home to many aging condo buildings that struggle with mitigating water damage losses and their impact on insurance.

As water damage claims continue to rise and property damage costs increase, many insurance carriers are beginning to make changes to their coverage offerings that may increase your risk exposure.

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: I’m in the planning stages of a home renovation, what are some of the new trends in interior design — and what should I stay away from?

Answer: Redecorating and home renovations are an exciting and fun task but you want to make sure you don’t make choices that date your home. Each year designers and architects release their favorite new trends, including what to stay away from when undertaking a home makeover. This week I have compiled the latest do’s and don’ts for kitchens, bathrooms and living spaces from Elle Décor, Houzz and realtor.com.

Color(s) of the Year

Each year people in the design world await Pantone’s announcement for color of the year. This year they announced the bright and fresh, Living Coral, but they are no longer the sole source for color trends. Recently other paint manufacturers started sharing their own selections for a color of the year, with Sherwin Williams choosing Cavern Clay and Behr announcing Blueprint.

Kitchens

In

• Blue Kitchens — Blue toned cabinets paired with brass or gunmetal hardware creates a warmer and more welcoming space.
• Black Kitchens — Black feels fresh and crisp and can be paired with a wide variety of hardware to accent. However, this does not mean the return of shiny black appliances! Most brands have introduced matte black or a dark stainless steel line.
• Two-tone Cabinets — Green/grey/blue bottom cabinets paired with white upper cabinets. Creating the warm and inviting feel of the blue-tone cabinets without going “all-in.” Should be paired with understated and simple hardware.
• Full Wall/Bold Patterned Backsplashes — Full-wall backsplashes are creating the ultimate statement kitchen. Especially when paired with a bold patterned tile.

Out:

• Industrial Kitchens — Send my apologies to Joanna Gaines, rustic concrete countertops and exposed shelving with iron pipes are on their way out.
• Solid White Countertops — With white walls coming back into style the white on white on white is almost blinding, especially when walking into a home with a lot of overhead lighting.
• Over-the-range Microwaves — Originally coming into the scene as a way for developers to cut costs on kitchen remodels, this was never meant to be a trend and its demise is long overdue. Instead go for a sleek and stylish range hood.
• Cherry Cabinets — The overall of these emerging trends seems to be brighter and lighter and cherry cabinets darkern a kitchen no matter what wall color or countertop you pair them with.

Previous Image 1/9 Next Image

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This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Do you have any details in the new condos being built in Courthouse at 2000 Clarendon?

Answer: The Arlington market has been delivering about one new condo building per year over the last 8 years and will continue that trend with the introduction of 87 luxury condos at 2000 Clarendon, in the Courthouse neighborhood. Currently a hole in the ground, limited access pre-sales will start this week, with a projected delivery of spring 2020.

Broad Range of Size and Style

38 total 1 BR/1 BA units range in size from 627 sq. ft. to 739 sq. ft., priced from the upper $400s to mid $500s. The next jump is to a 1 BR +Den with 1.5 BA at 830 sq. ft., with 12 units starting in the upper $500s.

The most popular units, and fastest to sell, will likely be the 2 BR/2 BA options, of which there are 31, ranging in price and size from the upper $600s to low $800s and 973 sq. ft. to 1,076 sq. ft., respectively.

There are two 2 BR/2.5 BA floorplans, just six total units, with 1,362 sq. ft. and 1,739 sq. ft. Based on the floor plans I’ve seen, the dens are legitimate/legal 3rd bedrooms. These units are being offered from $1.1M to over $1.4M and are located only on the top three floors (Sky Suites).

All units include one garage parking space. Additional parking and private storage are available for purchase.

Given current market conditions, I think the 2 BR/2 BA units are the best value at these prices. However, I expect all floor plans to be in high demand. Over the last three years, there has been an average of 28 two-bedroom condos and 23 one-bedroom condos for sale in April in the 22201 zip code.

As of April 1 2019, there are only 11 two-bedrooms condos and 7 one-bedroom condos for sale in the 22201 zip code.

Below are some highlights of the unit designs and options:

• Concrete construction between all units (very quiet and rare for newer buildings)
• Owners can customize their units from a selection of wide plank hardwood flooring, quartz countertops and cabinetry
• Chefs will be pleased to hear the building will have gas cooking
• Hardwood throughout the living areas and bedrooms is standard (no carpet anywhere)
• Most units have floor-to-ceiling windows, all have windows heights of 7′ or more
• About 70% of the units have a private balcony or terrace
• Floors 1-11 will have 10′ ceilings (9′ is standard in most condos so you’ll notice a difference)
• Floors 12-14 are Sky Suites and have 12′ ceilings with an upgraded appliance package
• Floors 1, 3, 6 and 9 are “loft style” with exposed ductwork, piping and columns which
  provides for additional ceiling height

Luxury Amenities, Modest Fees

I’ve been pretty disappointed in the bland exterior design of some recent condo and apartment buildings along the R-B Corridor, but kudos to the builder, The Bush Companies, for spending on improved architectural design and materials to make this building look sleek and modern.

While condo fees are not finalized, the projected fees are quite reasonable compared to the rest of the market. 1 BRs top out at $350/mon and the 2 BRs at $500/mon.

This is well below the average for one-and two-bedroom condos in Arlington. Owners will have access to amenities including:

• Two-level cascading pool & sun deck
• Rooftop terrace with Monument, Georgetown and city skyline views
• Rooftop club room including kitchen and entertainment space
• First floor fitness center with outdoor terrace

Who Is Building 2000 Clarendon?

The Bush Companies is the developer/builder of 2000 Clarendon. The firm has developed and built seven condo and apartment buildings with over 2,100 total units in Arlington including well-known communities Station Square (Clarendon), Lexington Square (Virginia Square), The Park at Courthouse (Courthouse) and Windsor Plaza (Ballston).

In the District, the firm developed 2020 Lofts in the U Street Corridor and many other projects dating back as far as the early 50’s. Currently, in addition to 2000 Clarendon, the firm is nearing completion of The Lexicon in the
NoMa neighborhood of Washington D.C.

If you’re interested in learning more about 2000 Clarendon including access to floorplans, finishes and pricing or would like to reserve a unit during the limited access pre-sale period please email me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Is it true that more people are choosing to rent than buy a home?

Answer: I’ve certainly been hearing this theory for a while now too — people are foregoing the American Dream of owning their own home for the ease and flexibility they get from renting. That’s usually paired with some scary data about how Millennials only rent and are ruining everything (see my August 2018 column about this topic). While that trend was true for most of the last 10-12 years, it’s proven false over the last two years.

Home Ownership Way Up, Renting Slightly Down

On a National level, the US Census Bureau is reporting a third straight year in increased home ownership with 2018 being by far the largest growth we’ve had in home ownership since 2004. The numbers of renters dropped for a second year in a row, the first drop in National rental rates since 2004.

Why The Sudden Change?

I believe there are two main reasons why the trends have reversed course over the last two years.

First, the majority of Millennials are finally of home-buying and settling down age and have had some time to build up a savings after taking on historically high amounts of student debt and graduating into a recessions/slow economy. I always laughed when I heard “experts” claim Millennials would never buy homes while most of them were under 30 and financially unprepared for a mortgage.

The second reason is the strong economy we’ve witnessed over the last few years that has finally led to higher income. Better pay and more job security will always lead to higher rates of home ownership.

What About Arlington?

As of 2016, the home ownership rate in Arlington was just 44.2%; well below the National (63.6%), Virginia (65.8%) and Greater Metro Area (63%) average ownership rate. Arlington home ownership has only increased by .3% since then.

I recently heard that 20% of Arlington’s population moves every year (most in the Country) so you can expect such a transient population to favor renting over ownership when compared to the rest of the country.

Given how expensive it is to live in Arlington, I don’t see the ownership rate increasing much over the next five years, which is a good thing because there’s already nowhere near enough homes for sale to support the current ownership rate.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

Graphic via the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Rosslyn resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: Has there been an increase in the number of homeowners putting their home on the market after Amazon’s decision to move to Arlington?

Answer: For me, this was the big unknown — would the announcement of Amazon HQ2 cause homeowners to quickly put their homes up for sale to take advantage of a higher resale value or would those owners decide to hold on for the mid/long run, hoping for a much greater return 5-10+ years from now? The early data in Arlington and Alexandria suggests a preference for the latter.

New Listings Way Down

The easiest way to answer the question is to look at the Year-over-Year change in the number of new listings to hit the market each month. Over the last three months, the YoY difference in new listings in Arlington has been -11%, -18.4% and -13.9%. The City of Alexandria has followed a similar pattern.

Months of Supply… Also Way Down

Months of Supply is a supply/demand reading that tells you how many months it would take for all the homes currently on the market (supply) to sell, given the current rate of sales (demand). Economists generally consider six months of supply to represent a well-balanced real estate market for both buyers and sellers.

Arlington and the City of Alexandria have hovered around 2-3 months of supply for most of the past 6-7 years, having never dropped below the one-month mark for 10+ years… until December 2018, when the two combined to average about .75 months of supply each of the last three months.

What Does This Mean For Northern Virginia?

You can shield the Seven Kingdoms from White Walkers by stacking up all of the frustrated buyers searching in Arlington and Alexandria.

Some may decide to pass on buying a home and continue renting, find a way to make their existing homes work, or move out of the area altogether, but many others will start to look further west for value (it’s there, trust me). Expect to see an immediate spillover into Annandale, Falls Church and Springfield; that shift has already started with many of our clients.

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington DC, and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.