Election Day in Arlington (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
In Arlington, for local races, the primary is usually where the action is.
As a heavily Democratic county, general election races in November are less competitive than intra-party primary races earlier in the year. The upcoming Nov. 7 election will feature a dozen races for which Arlington residents can cast their votes, though seven are uncontested.
The most watched local race, arguably, is that of Arlington County Board, with the Missing Middle zoning acting as a bit of a wildcard in what will likely be a low-turnout election.
But statewide, the real one to watch is the balance of power in the Virginia General Assembly. That’s why Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin was in Arlington and Falls Church earlier this week, reaching out to Hispanic and Asian-American voters and hoping to gain a Republican majority in both the House of Delegates and state Senate.
So there are dual dynamics here — Missing Middle and General Assembly control will be closely watched, but also Arlington’s electoral history suggests the results of the local election will likely not be a surprise.
Given all that, how closely would you say you’re paying attention to the upcoming election?
Voting in Courthouse (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Early voting is picking up speed in Arlington while Arlington County Board candidates focus on Missing Middle and taxes.
The general election on Nov. 7 is less than two weeks away and at this point, far more people are voting early in person this year compared to 2019, the last election year without gubernatorial or presidential races.
More than 4,700 mailed ballots have been returned, leaving around 9,000 still outstanding, while some 3,000 people have already hit the polls, per Arlington’s voter turnout dashboard. Early in-person voting appears to have picked up this week with the election drawing nearer and after polling places opened Tuesday at Madison and Walter Reed community centers.
Early in-person voting in Arlington in 2019 and 2023 (via Arlington County)
As Election Day looms nearer, Arlington County Board candidates have focused on few key local issues and the importance of voting, generally.
Republican Juan Carlos Fierro weighed in after a judge ruled residents have standing to sue the county for its Missing Middle ordinances.
“One of the reasons I entered this campaign for the County Board is because of my concern that the existing County Board was ramrodding Missing Middle without considering the views of most citizens, and for not conducting adequate development impact analysis,” Fierro said in a statement.
If elected, he said he will question all projects that increase density without considering negative impacts and respect that homeowners “do have in fact ‘standing’ to challenge the County’s development policies.”
Not enough study of potential impacts is one of the charges the residents who sued levied against the county. Arlington County did hear frommany residents about a myriad concerns while deliberating the zoning changes and, after a three-phase study that included a financial analysis, the county determined impacts would be “manageable because the pace of change will be gradual and incremental.”
“While the Judge’s ruling is a positive step to either repeal or modify Missing Middle, it underscores the fact that the County’s public engagement process is not very democratic,” he continued. “The Judge admonished the County Attorney for stating that the lawsuit was a ‘subversion of our democratic process.’ The County Attorney’s comment illustrates the lack of understanding by the County on what is true public engagement.”
Repeat independent candidate Audrey Clement, meanwhile, is focused on lowering taxes and convincing residents not to vote for a straight Democratic ticket.
In a recent email newsletter, she noted Arlington County Board Chair Christian Dorsey discussed a possible tax increase next year during this month’s Arlington County Democratic Committee meeting.
“ACDC is confident that it can quell any taxpayer revolt by simply passing out the Democratic Party Blue Ballot at the polls on Election Day,” Clement said. “When voters refuse to hold their elected officials accountable at the ballot box by blindly voting the Blue Ballot, excessive taxation is the result.”
She urged readers to “turn this situation around” by voting for fiscal conservatives such as herself and Fierro. Together, she says, they will also revisit Missing Middle ordinances, emphasize basic services and reduce the office vacancy rate.
The two appear to have formed an informal alternative joint ticket to Democratic nominees Maureen Coffey and Susan Cunningham, to fill the seats vacated by now-former Board member Katie Cristol and being vacated by Dorsey.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin shakes hands with Peruvian Brothers co-owner Giuseppe Lanzone (staff photo by James Jarvis)
Peruvian Brothers co-owner and chef Mario Lanzone teaches Gov. Glenn Youngkin to make lomo saltado, or beef stir-fry (staff photo by James Jarvis)
Gov. Glenn Youngkin speaks to a crowd of attendees at a campaign event at Peruvian Brothers restaurant in Pentagon City (staff photo by James Jarvis)
Peruvian ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra Velásquez watches Gov. Glenn Youngkin make lomo saltado during campaign event (staff photo by James Jarvis)
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin swung by the new Peruvian Brothers restaurant in Pentagon City yesterday to sizzle some lomo saltado and rally support from the Hispanic community.
The Tuesday afternoon visit came ahead of the pivotal November election, with control of the Virginia legislature in the balance. Youngkin wasted no time getting behind the grill of the fast-casual Peruvian eatery, which opened earlier this month on the ground floor of the Amazon’s HQ2.
Almost as soon as he was escorted in by co-owner Giuseppe Lanzone, he donned an apron and started cooking. The governor then took a moment to celebrate Giuseppe and his brother Mario for successfully opening their second brick-and-mortar establishment.
Peruvian Brothers started out as an Alexandria-based food truck and catering business and has since expanded into D.C. and Arlington.
“As governor, it’s really important to me that we have a pro-small business environment so that, when entrepreneurial brothers want to start a restaurant, they do it in Virginia,” Youngkin said, speaking to a mix of locals, campaign aides and Peruvian Ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra Velásquez.
The Republican governor also highlighted the importance of Virginia’s Latino population.
“I want to emphasize how important the Latino community is to Virginia. It is such a vibrant and important part of our Virginia, and to have so many Peruvian Virginians makes Virginia better,” he said.
Wrapping up the event, Youngkin urged attendees to cast their ballots in the upcoming election. The governor has been campaigning across the state for Republicans seeking local office and urging people to “vote early.”
“I want to encourage everyone, please, as we’re in the election season, go vote,” he said. “One of the important parts of being a Virginian is to cast your ballots and to participate in our democracy.”
After the Pentagon City stop Youngkin visited the Eden Center, just across the Arlington border in Falls Church, to meet with members of the local Asian-American community.
A drop-off voting box in Courthouse in mid-May of 2023 (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
(Updated at 4:10 p.m) Early voting is underway and the election is five weeks out but, compared to other parts of Virginia, politicking in Arlington is still a little sleepy.
This year is an off-year, meaning there are no federal offices on the ballot to drum up turnout. Some call this year, like 2019 before it, an “off-off-year” because the ballot lacks statewide offices, such as governor, too.
“We’ve been pretty quiet compared to other parts of Virginia,” Director of Elections Gretchen Reinemeyer says.
About 1% of Arlington’s 154,320 registered voters have cast their ballots already and the only early-voting location currently open, Courthouse Plaza, is averaging 101 voters a day, according to the county’s election dashboard.
Turnout is on par with the rest of Northern Virginia, which is seeing less early voting activity than more competitive jurisdictions and Republican strongholds to the south and west, according to data collected by the Virginia Public Access Project.
The local Democratic party chalks this up to the high number of uncompetitive races. Arlington’s GOP committee, meanwhile, says Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s active campaigning for Republicans seeking local office and “vote early” message might be getting more Republicans out to the polls.
For state Senate, for instance, some 1,330 have voted in the 40th District and some 1,860 in the 39th District, currently held by Sens. Barbara Favola and Adam Ebbin, respectively, who are seeking re-election, compared to the 4,500-5,500 votes cast in some competitive or heavily Republican jurisdictions.
Early voting levels by State Senate jurisdiction in Virginia (via Virginia Public Access Project)
At this point in the race, slower Democrat turnout can be expected because more Democrats vote by mail, which comes with a lag time, a spokesman for Arlington County Democratic Committee. Data show 640 of the 13,119 mailed ballots have been returned in Arlington.
He predicts early voting will pick up once more locations open and hours are extended.
Another factor is the seven uncontested races: there are no challengers for Clerk of the Court Paul Ferguson, Commonwealth’s Attorney Parisa Dehghani-Tafti, Treasurer Carla de la Pava, Acting Sheriff Jose Quiroz, Commissioner of Revenue candidate Kim Klingler, District 1 Del. Patrick Hope and District 2 candidate Adele McClure.
There are two Republican challengers for Favola and Ebbin — David Henshaw and Sophia Moshasha, respectively — and District 3 Del. Alfonso Lopez faces a challenger in independent Major Mike Webb, who seeks office frequently.
“Almost every race in places like Arlington and Fairfax are uncontested or it’s very obvious the Democratic candidate has a huge advantage,” a local Democratic spokesman told ARLnow. “The reality is that the races in Arlington are all going to be relatively non-competitive compared to others in Virginia.”
Volunteers with Arlington Democrats have been spending their weekends knocking doors in jurisdictions where election outcomes determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the state House of Delegates and Senate, he said. National media note the stakes are high in Virginia this year, particularly for issues such as abortion.
Although it is tougher to beat a Democrat in Arlington, Matthew Hurtt, who chairs the Arlington County Republican Committee, says Henshaw and Moshasha have received “significant support” from the state GOP for their campaign literature, websites and yard signs.
“Gov. Youngkin is committed to being competitive everywhere,” he said, noting the governor’s early voting rallying cry this election. “The Spirit of Virginia came in for every candidate, including those up here who are long-shot candidates.”
It will take that investment until the next off-off year, in 2027, for Republicans to make inroads in Northern Virginia, he said.
Republican Sophia Moshasha and incumbent Sen. Adam Ebbin (D-39) speak during the Arlington County Civic Federation (ACCF) forum on Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2023 (via ACCF/Facebook)
State Sen. Barbara Favola (D-40) and Republican David Henshaw speak during the Civ Fed forum on Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2023 (via ACCF/Zoom)
Arlington County Board candidates Susan Cunningham, Audrey Clement, Juan Carlos Fierro and Maureen Coffey speak during the CivFed forum on Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2023 (via ACCF/Facebook)
After a summer lull, politicking in Arlington is back in full swing.
For candidates, the first big stop on the campaign trail was an in-person and virtual forum hosted by the Arlington County Civic Federation, or CivFed, last night (Tuesday).
Democrat and Republican candidates for the state legislature outlined their top social and economic goals, while the four Arlington County Board candidates, meanwhile, were quizzed on more local topics, including government transparency — a key issue for CivFed that roiled the organization earlier this year.
State senate challengers emerge
Two Republicans are challenging Arlington’s two long-time incumbent Democrat state senators: Sophia Moshasha, vying for the 39th District seat against Adam Ebbin, and David Henshaw, going up against Barbara Favola for the 40th District seat.
Last night, the four candidates staked out their party-line positions on center-stage social issues, including abortion, gun violence, public education and crime.
Favola and Ebbin say they are both focused on codifying abortion rights and banning “assault-style” weapons.
Ebbin said his other top priorities “are a state government that fights for Virginians and an economy that works for Virginia, but we need to keep improving our K-12 public education system.”
Both incumbents pointed to their years of experience legislating under Republican and Democrat governors as reasons voters should re-elect them.
“I have always been very pragmatic,” Favola said. “I think I’m one of the more successful lawmakers in terms of gaining bipartisan support for my bills, and actually having my bill signed.”
Both Republicans styled themselves as “political outsiders.” Echoing similar language from GOP Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin during his race and tenure, the candidates called on the state to safeguard the rights of parents to “have a say” in their child’s education. They both also called for increased funding for law enforcement to address crime.
“I am concerned — and a little bit upset — with the direction that our country and our state are going, particularly with regard to education, the high cost of living and crime,” Henshaw said. “Arlington deserves a choice in the election coming up.”
Criticizing Favola’s support of abortion rights, Henshaw said he supports a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions for the health of the mother as well as rape and incest, as well as lower state taxes.
Moshasha, meanwhile, has made technology and science a marquee issue. Going up against Ebbin, who chairs two senate committees focused on technology, she says she will push for more STEM programs at all educational levels and more policies to attract emerging industries to Virginia.
“I am not a career politician. I focus on the things that we need to move our economy and our community forward,” she said. “I think it’s time to get a fresh voice, a fresh perspective and an innovative mindset with the energy that will get things done on behalf of the greater community.”
Arlington County Board candidates on transparency
The County Board forum began with topics such as police staffing and the office vacancy rate, but heated up during a later question about transparency.
Republican candidate for County Board Juan Carlos Fierro (staff photo by James Jarvis)
(Updated at 5 p.m. on 8/10/23) The Arlington County GOP says it’s pivoting away from national politics and working to assemble a broad coalition galvanized by hyper-local issues.
The first test of this new strategy will be the November County Board election when residents will have the opportunity to vote for the Republican nominee, Juan Carlos Fierro.
An immigrant from Ecuador with nearly three decades of experience in international business and finance, Fierro is aiding the party’s efforts to cultivate a diverse alliance and embrace Republicans, as well as Independents and Democrats, from myriad backgrounds.
The last time a Republican was elected to the Board was Mike Lane in 1999. But party leaders, including newly elected Chair of the Arlington County GOP, Matthew Hurtt, are optimistic that their new strategy will help Republicans establish a solid foothold in the predominantly Democratic county.
However, judging by recent fundraising numbers, Hurtt argues the strategy is already working.
“Thanks to generous supporters like you, the Arlington GOP raised $14,831 from July 13th until midnight last night,” Hurtt told donors in an email last month. “The average contribution from more than 110 individual donations was $131, and the Committee took in an average of $823 per day over the 18-day period.”
Hurtt noted these numbers were “unprecedented” for the party which typically brings in a little less than half that number.
He emphasized the majority of these funds will be allocated towards “local issue education,” “voter targeting,” and “mobilization efforts,” aimed at aiding local Republican candidates, including Fierro, in their campaigns for state senate and county board positions.
“With the imminent approval by this Committee, we will invest in our candidates in ways we have not done in decades,” Hurtt told his donors.
Hurtt attributes the party’s robust fundraising quarter to members’ renewed confidence Republicans can make headway in future local elections by using this strategy.
“When I was chairman of Young Republicans, we helped elect John Vihstadt to the county board in 2014… We helped legalize food trucks and Airbnbs in Arlington. And so we have won on policy issues and we’ve built broad based coalitions,” Hurtt said. “But I’m trying to get my members to say, ‘you know it is worth my time to be involved in local issues.’”
Heading into November, Hurtt said the party aims to turn out voters who turned out for Gov. Glenn Youngkin. He drew national attention after beating out former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe in 2021.
Hurtt is under no illusion that Arlington will swing from blue to red anytime soon. Nevertheless, he pointed out that Youngkin garnered 22.8% of the Arlington vote — 6 percentage points more than former President Donald Trump a year earlier.
Following his victory, Youngkin was applauded by national, state and local party leaders, including Hurtt, who praised his ability to energize white suburban voters by capitalizing on parents’ frustrations over Covid-induced school closures, as well as other cultural issues such as the teaching of race in schools and transgender rights.
By aligning with the Governor and focusing on issues such as education, Hurtt said he believes Fierro and other Republican candidates may have a better shot in upcoming and future elections.
Independent School Board candidate James ‘Vell’ Rives IV (courtesy photo)
An independent candidate for the Arlington School Board is bowing out of the race.
On Monday, four months ahead of the general election in November, James “Vell” Rives announced in an email that he was suspending his campaign. His announcement hinted that he may run again for School Board in a later election cycle.
“For various reasons, I am suspending my 2023 campaign and am instead working on a future run for Arlington County School Board,” he said in the email. “Thank you for your encouragement and support this year! For now, please stay involved in our schools, and help out where you can.”
The psychiatrist and a member of the School Health Advisory Board — a citizen committee advising Arlington Public Schools — has campaigned on student health, improving academic performance and reducing technology use.
His opponent, Miranda Turner, who has the endorsement of the Arlington County Democratic Committee after its May caucus, will be running unopposed.
This is also Turner’s second School Board bid, losing two years ago in the Democratic endorsement caucus to now-School Board member Mary Kadera.
This year, Turner bested political newcomer Angelo Cocchiaro, who had the endorsement of outgoing School Board Chair Reid Goldstein and that of the local teachers union, the Arlington Education Association.
Ahead of the Nov. 7 general election, the first day of in-person early voting will begin on Sept. 22. The last day to apply for a mail ballot is Oct. 27.
The scene of the crash involving Heather Keppler’s daughter on a bicycle (courtesy Heather Keppler)
On Oct. 19, 2021, an elderly driver hit the daughter of Tara-Leeway Heights resident Heather Keppler while riding her bike.
The impact of her body cracked the windshield and she fell to the ground. She was whisked to the hospital in an ambulance where — not wanting to disturb any potential broken bones — doctors cut off a favorite running shirt and took a full-body X-ray.
Doctors said her tailbone was either broken or bruised and additional scans would confirm which injury it was. Keppler said they opted not to know, as the recovery process was the same: sitting on a donut pillow and missing her exercise routines. This pause took a toll on her daughter, then a freshman training for a regional running race.
Keppler decided to get a lawyer when one for the 86-year-old man involved called to see if she had one. The mother says in retrospect — after her experience ended in dropped charges — she is lucky she hired legal help.
“I don’t know how I would’ve found out [what] was going on,” she said.
Heather Keppler at her home in the Tara-Leeway Heights neighborhood (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Since June 2020, Arlington police officers have been shepherding through the legal system less-serious traffic misdemeanors: speeding, driving without a license, and so on. Before, the Office of the Commonwealth’s Attorney had a prosecutor outside Courtroom 3C — where those cases are adjudicated — to enter plea bargains.
This arrangement was imperfect, according to Arlington’s top prosecutor, Parisa Dehghani-Tafti, who just won the Democratic primary race for her seat against challenger Josh Katcher.
The assigned prosecutor often did not have “any prior knowledge of the case” and did not share pre-court-date discovery with defendants, she wrote in a 2020 memo to County Manager Mark Schwartz. This was one reason she removed prosecutors from “3C.”
After hearing from a state agency that trains prosecutors and the Virginia State Bar Ethics Counsel, it became clear her staff could not meet their obligations to share all exculpating or incriminating evidence in these cases, she argued.
Dehghani-Tafti attributed this largely to an uptick in available footage from cameras that police wear and have in their cars. Sharing all evidence would require prosecutors to review, process and disclose footage from some 40,000 cases — a tall order given current staffing levels.
“We did not come to this decision lightly, but rather after a thorough analysis of several factors,” she wrote to the Arlington County Police Department in a 2020 memo.
Three years later, she tells ARLnow that her office has kept the promises in that memo.
“We have gotten involved in every case in which our law enforcement partners have asked us to get involved, as was promised in the memo,” she said.
Keppler, however, suspects that the lack of prosecutorial presence in traffic court could explain how her daughter never got her day in court. She supported Dehghani-Tafti in her original, successful 2019 bid but this experience led her to flip for Katcher.
The bike that Keppler’s daughter rode when she was hit (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Dropped charges
After not hearing anything about her daughter’s case for some time, Keppler began to get worried.
Her lawyer found that subpoenas ordering the Kepplers and their assigned police officer to court on Nov. 18, 2021 were written but never issued.
“Because it was never issued, we never showed up to court,” she said. “Because no one was there, they dismissed the case.”
Like Keppler, local personal injury lawyer Jeff Jankovich says a prosecutor outside 3C could have helped the Kepplers. This person could have checked for the subpoenas and asked the judge to move the hearing date so everyone could make it.
Although Dehghani-Tafti’s memo says prosecutors were unfamiliar with the traffic cases on the docket that day, Jankovich recalls days when there were extremely experienced prosecutors who “did a pretty thorough job” of evaluating each case.
“If there were aggravating facts — an accident where someone was injured, or someone had significant prior record, even if it was minor speeding but the third, fourth or fifth offense — they were on top of that and it affected how they approached case,” he said.
Voters and Arlington County Board Democratic nominees Susan Cunningham and Maureen Coffey watch the tabulation process on Friday, June 23, 2023 in Courthouse (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
(Updated at 12:35 p.m.) Ranked-choice voting may have helped voters nominate a “split” Democratic ticket for Arlington County Board — at least when it comes to Missing Middle.
Last week, in relatively robust turnout for a primary in a non-presidential year, Maureen Coffey and Susan Cunningham received the Democratic nomination. Some 28,897 ballots were cast, up from 19,958 in 2015, the last time with two open seats and no incumbents on the ballot.
The Democratic duo are split, for and against, on the zoning code update allowing 2-6 unit buildings on lots previously zoned for single-family homes. Local elections buffs say the ideological diversity on this “split ticket” is a perk of ranked-choice voting that reflects the will of voters, even if it occasionally surprised observers.
“If we had used the simpler method of representation — of winner-takes-all — we most likely would have had two Democratic nominees who had the same position on Missing Middle,” says Jeremy Mayer, associate professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.
The two departing Board members, Katie Cristol and Christian Dorsey, strongly supported the changes. This time around, voters have chosen Cunningham, who called it a “mess,” and Coffey who, while generally supportive, criticized it for lacking cohesion with other housing policies.
It appears this election may be a stronger referendum on Missing Middle than the 2022 race. Incumbent Matt de Ferranti ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and bested two independents with 60% of votes last fall, campaigning on a middling view of the zoning changes.
This time, the leaderboard was not clear cut. Despite “anti” Missing Middle candidates leading at first, realtor Natalie Roy lost to Coffey, who picked up votes from eliminated “pro” Missing Middle candidates.
This result “much more accurately reflects the opinions of Democrat-leaning Arlingtonians,” said Mayer, a lifelong Arlingtonian. “That’s a good thing for democracy.”
Ranked-choice voting tempered the influence of the Democratic establishment, he and former Arlington County Civic Federation President Allan Gajadhar said. Democrats had full control of the Arlington County Board for years until 2014, when Republican John Vihstadt joined the Board as an independent, and have had it since 2018, when de Ferranti beat him.
This year, the Democratic establishment coalesced around Julius “JD” Spain, Sr., who nabbed endorsements from County Board members Takis Karantonis and de Ferranti, Commonwealth’s Attorney Parisa Dehghani-Tafti, state Sen. Barbara Favola, and others. He was eliminated in the fourth tabulation round.
Cunningham, meanwhile, had support from some well-known Democrats as well as people outside the party, like Vihstadt, who last year supported independent and outspoken Missing Middle critic Audrey Clement. Cunningham also had the support of Board Vice-Chair Libby Garvey, who endorsed Vihstadt in 2014.
“In a place with a dominant faction, it does broaden the base of the people who can get elected beyond the party control mechanisms,” Gajadhar said. “In this case, it was one issue, Missing Middle. In other elections… [there could be] not just a diversity of ideas but of people who could conceivably run and be successful.”
Former county treasurer turned amateur election pundit Frank O’Leary sees a common thread between Garvey’s support for Cunningham amid doubts about Missing Middle and her alliance with Vihstadt against the Columbia Pike streetcar. He does not, however, predict the downfall of Missing Middle if Cunningham and Garvey join forces.
“I suspect it will be peace and harmony on the County Board,” he said.
People watch the results of the ranked-choice tabulation on Friday, June 23, 2023 in Courthouse (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
A whiteboard depicts the threshold for being the Democratic nominee for the Arlington County Board (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
A spreadsheet on display when votes for Arlington County Board were tabulated on Friday, June 23, 2023 (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Outside the room where tabulation happened at Arlington County headquarters in Courthouse on Friday, June 23 (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Arlington County Manager Mark Schwartz, County Board member Takis Karantonis and others at county headquarters when tabulation took place Friday, June 23 (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Arlington County Director of Elections Gretchen Reinemeyer explains the tabulation process for ranked-choice voting (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Voting on Tuesday, June 20, 2023 in Arlington at Walter Reed Community Center (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Susan Cunningham on primary day (courtesy Susan Cunningham)
(Updated at 9:40 a.m. on 6/26/23) The ballots have all been counted and the results are finalized: Maureen Coffey and Susan Cunningham are the Democratic nominees for the Arlington County Board.
The results, released at 3:15 p.m. today (Saturday), culminated Arlington’s trial run of ranked-choice voting method. Eyes across the state were reportedly on Arlington, which the state legislature allowed to use the process for County Board elections one year before extending the right to the rest of the Commonwealth.
At noon today, Arlington election officials adjudicated the remaining 135 provisional ballots and began tabulating them around 1 p.m. These ballots were not expected to change the outcome of the tabulation yesterday (Friday), when officials processed ballots from early voting, primary day voting, and mail-in ballots.
On Tuesday’s primary day, no candidate in the six-way race crossed the threshold with only the first round of votes counted. Arlington waited until all the ballots were in, save provisional ballots, before eliminating lower vote-getters and tallying second- and third-place rankings.
Coffey, a researcher for the think tank American Progress, appears to have captured votes from many millennial renters like herself, receiving 10,786 votes.
Cunningham, who ran an unsuccessful bid for Arlington County Board as an independent in 2020, received 14,208 votes, initially carried by several precincts north of Langston Blvd.
Arlington County Board Democratic Primary Round 1 votes by precinct (by Jo DeVoe)
Coffey emerged victorious in the fourth round, after Jonathan Dromgoole, Tony Weaver and Julius “JD” Spain were eliminated, in that order. Cunningham crossed the victory threshold in round six, after Natalie Roy was eliminated.
How the ranking rounds played out for Arlington County Board (via Virginia Dept. of Elections)
Tabulation yesterday and today at county government headquarters was open to the public as was the certification of the results.
Both Coffey and Cunningham were both present on Friday. Coffey observed the vibe in the tabulation room was upbeat, complimenting Director of Elections Gretchen Reinemeyer for walking through every step, even though it seemed boring and technical.
“But as we waited for each step to happen, people were joking and laughing and being silly with it,” she said. “I think it’s reflective, Arlington County has some really good people.”
After the preliminary results were finalized on Friday, Coffey seemed stunned.
“This is so surreal,” she said. “This is wild.”
Cunningham was similarly upbeat.
“I am just excited at the prospect of serving our community next January,” Cunningham told ARLnow shortly after the tabulation. “I’m ready to take a true deep breath and I’m really proud of our candidates and the community for having a good and clean race.”
A man inserts a ballot into a voting machine at Walter Reed Community Center on Tuesday, June 20, 2023 (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Democratic primary watch party at William Jeffrey’s Tavern (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
An election official measures the distance that campaigners can stand near the Central Library polling place (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
Voting on Tuesday, June 20, 2023 in Arlington at Walter Reed Community Center (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
County Board candidate JD Spain at the election watch party in Courthouse (staff photo by Jay Westcott)
When polls closed at Thomas Jefferson Community Center (courtesy Susan Cunningham)
Susan Cunningham on primary day (courtesy Susan Cunningham)
Candidate signs outside of the Madison Community Center (staff photo)
Arlingtonians could have an update on the results of the Arlington County Board Democratic primary as soon as this afternoon, according to the local elections office.
“We will be accepting about 500 mail and provisional ballots today and results will be uploaded throughout the afternoon,” says spokeswoman Tania Griffin. “We’ll also have an update regarding the [ranked-choice voting] tabulation later this afternoon as well.”
For the first time, Arlington voters used a ranked-choice system to pick their top candidates for the County Board, which has two open seats this year. The outcome will come down to who voters ranked second and third place.
It is a squeaker so far for Susan Cunningham, Natalie Roy, Maureen Coffey and Julius “J.D.” Spain, whose tally of first-choice votes are within a range of only 5 percentage points from most to least.
“This race is still wide open,” said Liz White, the executive director of UpVote Virginia, which has been educating residents about ranked-choice voting ahead of the primary.
“Four out of the six candidates could very well secure a win once subsequent rounds are tabulated,” she said in an email. “Round-by-round tabulation will occur as soon as all provisional and mail ballots are processed. Once all votes are processed, the tabulation is instantaneous.”
How Arlington County Board candidates ended Tuesday night with Round 1 votes in (via Virginia Dept. of Elections)
No candidate crossed the threshold for early victory: 33.3% of the first-choice votes, plus one vote. The next step will be eliminating the lowest vote getters, in order. Who people picked after first ranking Jonathan Dromgoole and Tony Weaver could get any of the four other candidates past the finish line.
Cunningham, who took the lead in the first round of votes, tells ARLnow she has made peace with whatever happens next. Coffey, who currently sits in third place, says she is “on pins and needles” waiting for the results.
Political consultant Ben Tribbett is placing his bets that those who ranked Dromgoole first likely ranked Coffey or Spain next.
“When you get to the actual ranking of candidates, I think the third and fourth-place candidates are going to go on to win the election,” Tribbett said. “I would expect in that first round, that Maureen is going to win. There’s a chance Susan Cunningham could hold off J.D. in the second round.”
On Tuesday, County Board member Takis Karantonis — who endorsed Coffey and Spain — said Coffey performed well on a per campaign dollar spent basis. Meanwhile Spain, who had racked up several endorsements and raised substantial funds, underperformed, which he called a “sobering result.”
Looking precinct by precinct, it is clear that each of the candidates had a base. The more urban places with younger voters went for Coffey, while single-family home enclaves went for Cunningham and Roy, who were most critical of the zoning changes known as Missing Middle.
Arlington County Board Democratic Primary Round 1 votes by precinct (by Jo DeVoe)
Spain told ARLnow on Tuesday night that he enjoyed strong support in his neighborhood, Penrose, while noting more confrontations with upset voters above Langston Blvd.
“We won the most diverse precincts in Arlington,” he said. “[I’m] proud of that.”
Tribbett was more blunt about what he saw as the electoral dynamic, citing the geographic distribution of votes in the Commonwealth’s Attorney race in particular.
“It’s the Karens versus the non-Karens,” he said. “Clearly, there’s a divide in the community that jumps out at you.”
