real estate

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

Question: I recently read an article by the Sun Gazette that median price per square foot was down since last year in Arlington and the rest of Northern Virginia. Is that what you’re seeing in the market, despite reports of prices going up?

Answer: I read that article as well and was equally confused by the statistic that $/sq. ft. was down 6.8% in Arlington in the first nine months of 2019 compared to the first nine months of 2018. While this data point may be technically correct, it doesn’t accurately represent what’s happening in the Arlington/Northern Virginia marketplace. Even without having access to the data behind it, does anybody believe that with all the news about the Amazon-effect on Arlington’s real estate market, that people are paying less per square foot in 2019?

Price-Per-Square-Foot Is Actually Up (Obviously)

The truth is that while the median $/sq. ft. did drop year-over-year in the first nine months of 2019, it was actually due to a shift in the type of inventory that sold, not because buyers are getting more for their money. As I pointed out earlier this year in an article about a national news story on Arlington’s real estate market, it’s easy to find market data that sounds interesting (aka generates reader clicks) but doesn’t tell an accurate story.

When I drilled into the 2018 vs. 2019 data on median and average $/sq. ft., I found that within comparable sub-markets (e.g. 2 BR condos, 4 BR single-family, etc) median and average $/sq. ft. increased year-over-year. In fact, if you use average $/sq. ft. instead of median, like the article references, there was a 9.5% increase across Arlington.

In this case average is a better statistical measure than median, but of course the median $/sq. ft. made for a better story.

Accurate Headlines From The First Nine Months

While I have the data together comparing the first nine months of 2019 to the first nine months of 2018, I’ll go ahead and offer up five headlines that accurately represent the Arlington real estate market through September 2019:

• The market is up, but not by as much as you might think based on some news stories. The average purchase price in Arlington jumped 5.8% to just over $722,000.
• A lack of inventory drove total sales down by 8%, with the biggest drop-off showing up in the condo market which suffered from a 12.3% drop in sales, led by a 13.6% drop in two-bedroom condo sales.
• The price range of the middle 50% of homes jumped from $380,000-$864,300 in 2018 to $415,000-$916,000 in 2019, a 9.2% increase in the lower limit and a 6% increase in the upper limit. This indicates that the Amazon-effect is impacting lower price points faster than upper price points which makes sense because investors and other speculators are more likely to purchase at lower prices.
• Good properties sold much faster in 2019 with 62.7% of homes selling in the first 10 days, compared to 46.4% in 2018. The craziest stat? 85.5% of 2 BR townhomes/duplexes sold within the first 10 days.
• Price growth in the 22202 zip code, the area surrounding Pentagon City and Crystal City aka National Landing aka Bezosville, led all Arlington zip codes with a 13.7% jump in average sold price.

If you ever run across market data you’re not sure about or would like a customized data analysis, please reach out to me at [email protected].

If you’d like a question answered in my weekly column or to set-up an in-person meeting to discuss local real estate, please send an email to [email protected]. To read any of my older posts, visit the blog section of my website at www.EliResidential.com. Call me directly at (703) 539-2529.

Eli Tucker is a licensed Realtor in Virginia, Washington D.C., and Maryland with Real Living At Home, 2420 Wilson Blvd #101 Arlington, VA 22201, (202) 518-8781.

This regularly-scheduled sponsored Q&A column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. Please submit your questions to him via email for response in future columns. Enjoy!

This past week, Bright MLS announced major changes to prevent agents and brokerages from marketing properties for sale that are not entered into the MLS.

Previously, there were no restrictions on where and how long a property could be marketed to the public and/or other agents if it was not in the MLS. Effective immediately, a property must be entered into the MLS within one business day of any marketing (some exceptions apply). Violators will be fined up to $5,000 per violation.

Initially it might seem like this rule is unnecessarily restrictive and hurts consumers, but I strongly believe it is a net benefit for the marketplace.

What is MLS?

MLSs (Multiple Listing Services) are the organizations that allow agents and consumers to see all properties for sale in one place; the database of record that powers your favorite property search apps/websites. They are private entities born from the cooperation of regional brokerages, funded through brokerage and agent fees. There are around 600 regional MLSs across the country.

What is Bright MLS?

Bright is the name of our local MLS and is the largest in the country. It is responsible for property listings in all of D.C., MD,and DE, most of VA and PA and some of NJ and WV.

How it Benefits You

This type of regional cooperation between brokerages means that buyers have access to every home for sale in one centralized location, thus increasing the odds of finding the right home, and sellers can ensure their home is visible to every buyer, thus increasing the odds of their home selling for full market value.

A market without an MLS is fragmented, inefficient and not in the best interest of consumers.

New Pre/Off-Market Policy Change is Necessary

Over the last few years, in an effort to distinguish themselves from competition, brokerages and agents were engaged in a fierce competition to establish an inventory of pre/off-market properties marketed through independent websites, portals and social media channels. The idea was that if an agent or brokerage has a large inventory of off-MLS properties, in addition to access to all on-MLS properties, they’d be able to attract more clients.

These efforts led to fragmented “shadow markets” across the region, making it impossible for buyers to access all properties for sale and potentially limiting a seller’s market exposure. The Bright MLS Board, made up of brokers from across the region, recognized this problem and unanimously determined that changes were needed to secure the enormous benefits of cooperation.

The new rules still allow intra-brokerage marketing of off-market properties and agents to have one-off conversations with other agents and/or buyers about off-market properties, but agents/brokers cannot engage in public or inter-brokerage marketing.

What to Expect

Going forward, you should no longer find a property being marketed for sale or coming up for sale that is not entered in the MLS and widely available across all/most consumer-facing property search websites/apps. This includes social media, even Instagram and Facebook Stories.

One caveat is that not every consumer-facing property search website/app picks up properties entered into the MLS with a Coming Soon status. Bright MLS allows properties to be entered as Coming Soon for up to 21 days.

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