The Right Note

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

If the County Board special election was a small political earthquake, aftershocks were felt this past week and were centered somewhere in Crystal City.

Democrats sent out a newsletter which expressed exactly what many of us outside the controlling party in Arlington have been saying for years — the County Board is (rightly) perceived to be arrogant and insular.

Undaunted, the Board plowed ahead. It came to light that once again, the Board saw fit to give raises to the three employees it hires directly without putting the issue on the agenda. The Washington Post was on the case, disclosing that County Manager Barbara Donnellan received a raise of $8,000. Could it be for successfully stalling the $1 million bus stop study? Or maybe, it is just for taking all the slings and arrows when the Board refers questions to “staff?”

Also this week, the cost for the Columbia Pike to Crystal City trolley system was released. Based on past cost projections, I think it is safe to assume the $585 million price tag will only go up. And of course, it will not take long to scare the $1 billion mark.

This announcement comes on the heels of concerns that addressing school capacity needs may bump up against the bounds of the debt limits necessary to maintain our triple AAA bond rating. Most Arlingtonians would place the need to address 700 additional students entering our schools over other projects, but the priorities of the County Board remain an open question.

There is no doubt that something eventually has to give. In the past, that usually meant your wallet.

Some have suggested that the County Board may be giving themselves an out to abandon the trolley at a later date by relying on federal dollars in the funding mix. Federal officials have already sent it back to the drawing board once. Others are still concerned that the County Board could eventually turn to a public-private partnership or some other funding mechanism as a “savior” for it.

One thing is for sure, the retirement of Chris Zimmerman means the number one trolley cheerleader is no longer in the building. His departure opens the door for political expediency to trump insular arrogance if voters give John Vihstadt a full term in November. Walter Tejada or Mary Hynes might “re-evaluate” their position heading into 2015. That would most certainly leave Alan Howze with nothing to do but shake his head.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

News came out yesterday that Treasurer Frank O’Leary and Commissioner of the Revenue Ingrid Morroy joined Patrick Hope and Alan Howze in calling for a referendum on the Columbia Pike trolley.

Hope and Howze are trying to get attention in races for this year. Hope is looking for an advantage in a crowded June congressional primary. And Howze is trying to regain footing after his blowout special election loss one month ago.

Both Hope and Howze say they still support the project. They claim that if Arlingtonians only knew more about the benefits of the trolley, they would vote for it in a referendum.

Herein lies the problem with the tepid support for a referendum from Howze and Hope. People do not support the project, and already know plenty about it to make an informed vote.

The $1 million bus stop is a precursor for the trolley stops. That is why the pricey, open air, will probably not keep you dry in the rain even with the new design, structures are being built. The fact that the price will drop by half is of little consolation to Arlingtonians. We are still left to wonder why it costs so much to build so little. And, we rightly question the wisdom of building a fixed rail system to what could ultimately cost half a billion dollars and do nothing to improve traffic conditions along the corridor.

If the County Board puts the Columbia Pike trolley, in a straight up or down fashion, on the ballot this fall, voters will almost certainly reject it. And, voters would almost certainly reject any candidate for County Board who actively campaigns for it.

Morroy and O’Leary are more interesting case studies as they have suddenly gone public on a referendum. Many believe this is O’Leary’s last term in office, and Morroy is not up for election again until the fall of 2015.

Best guess is that they have both long held doubts about the wisdom of spending taxpayer dollars on the project. Now that two other elected Democrats broke the ice, the two officials who are caretakers of our public funds here in Arlington have the political cover to take a position counter to the slim pro-trolley majority on the Board.

In the final analysis, most of those who track the trolley believe the Board has no intention to fund the project with general obligation bonds. If so, the Board can move forward without a public vote. A referendum then, would be on a token amount of money and would hold no real power to stop the project. Only the fear of public backlash at the ballot box in future elections would stop the Board from moving forward.

After April 8, it is now a very real fear. And, it is starting to show.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

One thing we seem to agree on as Americans these days, we are wary of the actions elected officials are taking.

When the president said he would ignore Congress and take action via “phone and pen,” he did little to bolster our faith in our elected officials to follow the rules. It certainly did not boost his job approval rating either. In national polls, Americans are consistently giving President Obama marks in the low 40s.

Here in Virginia, we are starting to see a similar approach to governing.

On the Virginia Attorney General’s website, it clearly states that it is Attorney General Mark Herring’s job to defend the constitutionality of state laws when they are challenged in court. And, he swore an oath of office to defend the Constitution of Virginia.

Since taking office in January, however, General Herring has twice decided to ignore his sworn duty and not defend or enforce Virginia law. Herring’s actions on the marriage provision in our Virginia Constitution or the law prohibiting in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants should give us all pause. Ends justifying the means is a dangerous precedent when the next Attorney General may have different priorities.

At the same time, rumors are swirling that if Gov. Terry McAuliffe does not get his way on Medicaid expansion in the budget fight, that he will try to implement it through his executive powers. A stroke of the pen, and he could simply ignore the legislative branch some speculate.

Herring, based on his track record to date, would almost certainly back McAuliffe’s play were the governor to make it. McAuliffe and Herring would presumably then dare the legislature to try and overturn an executive order. Let’s hope, however, that the rumored executive order route is merely conjecture, or a tactic to try and get Republicans to the negotiating table on Medicaid.

The election of the Attorney General or Governor cannot overturn the results of all other elections. We elect a legislature to pass laws. We have a state constitution and a process for the voters to amend it. Lawmaking by “phone and pen” is wrong in Washington, and it is wrong for Virginia.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

I. 4.6 percent — The tax increase the average Arlingtonian faces even after a one-cent tax rate reduction. Fairfax passed a half-cent rate increase which pushed their dollar for dollar tax increase slightly above Arlington’s — up $357 versus $324. But, it will not be enough for Fairfax to overtake us in the race for the highest average tax bill. The Board could have and should have gone farther.

II. 41 percent — The percentage of Virginians who support expanding Medicaid. The Christopher Newport University poll seems to indicate that Virginians have no faith that the federal government will pay the promised cost share. The federal share is not slated to drop below 100 percent till the end of Gov. McAuliffe’s term, so he is betting on never having to figure out how to pay for any of it. These poll numbers reflect the reality that a nation approaching $20 trillion in debt will be unable to pay for a program that is already full of broken promise. Terry McAuliffe and the Senate Democrats may shut down the Virginia government over the promise “if you like your federal cost share you can keep it,” but it would be an ill-advised move.

III. $310 million — Not that anyone needs reminding that the Columbia Pike trolley will hang (at least) this much debt around Arlingtonians. But, the CIP fight is around the corner. It is where presumably the triumvirate of Fisette, Hynes and Tejada will reveal their plans to pay for it. As I wrote last week, Hynes and Tejada face the voters again in 2015 and would be most susceptible to public pressure to reject the project.

IV. 15 — The number of races on the ballot in Arlington in 2015 (Look for local Democrats use the double 15s in the name of their joint campaign). John Vihstadt’s success in a low turnout special election will hopefully encourage other candidates to emerge next year — a year that typically produces the lowest November general election voter interest. A little more competition in politics would be welcome news for taxpayers in a county where Democrats hold 14 of the 15 seats.

V. 1 — The number of Democrats threatened to be kicked out of the Arlington County Democratic Committee. Libby Garvey is likely to be removed for supporting John Vihstadt in the special election. I have not seen the ACDC membership roster, but I suspect Ms. Garvey was not the only Vihstadt supporter on the list. A removal will not prevent her from seeking the Democrats’ nomination in 2016. However, we can only assume it is being done to hamstring her in what will almost certainly be a contested primary.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

A Sun Gazette editorial this week joined me in calling for the inevitable tax revenue surpluses to be returned to taxpayers. As I have written more than once here, it appears as though County staff intentionally underestimates revenue every year in order to make the case for higher taxes.

At the end of the year, the Board then uses close out spending to increase spending outside of the annual budget process. They are on track to dole out tens of millions again this year while our average tax burden will rise with the rising assessments.

Yet, even with millions more to spend, it is unlikely that our Board will get the job done on basic infrastructure maintenance needs to prevent future pothole and water main break outbreaks. On the flip side, paying for another million dollar bus stop that will not keep you dry when it rains or snows is not out of the question.

Next week, you will have an opportunity to testify before the County Board on behalf of lower tax rates. A few hearty souls will most likely join you Thursday evening on your quixotic quest. Not only does the Board’s track record of raising taxes make it quixotic, but two days earlier, the Board will have heard from ten times as many people about how to spend even more of your hard-earned tax dollars.

In what you may not necessarily think of as a related story this week, I was reminded that the Arlington Chamber of Commerce is searching for a new president. We need a strong and vibrant business community in Arlington. Not only will it provide jobs for our residents, but it will maintain a strong commercial real estate tax base which ensures our residential tax rates do not skyrocket even higher.

The next Arlington Chamber president will need to step up the pressure on the County Board to make business formation and expansion easier in Arlington. These efforts are needed in order to make our community more attractive to job creators. Working with the County Board to make Arlington more business friendly will be a tough job for sure, but one that will benefit us all in the long run.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Last fall, as the fiscal year closed in Washington, Republicans in Congress asked President Obama to consider repealing or delaying, part or all of, the Affordable Care Act. President Obama refused to negotiate on the issue. The result of the impasse was a 17-day partial government shutdown.

Republicans, arguing the president’s signature legislative initiative might not be ready for prime time, were panned for holding the federal budget hostage over Obamacare. As it turns out, the initial sign-up phase was a mess. Since then, the Obama Administration has announced several additional delays for employers and individuals necessitated by unfortunate realities of the law.

Now, Democrats in Richmond, lead by Governor Terry McAuliffe, are threatening not to agree to a state budget unless Republicans relent and agree to expand the Medicaid provisions of Obamacare into Virginia. This a reversal of the Democrat’s previous talking point that holding up a spending bill over legislation relating to Obamacare is unacceptable.

Expanding Medicaid would bring more borrowed federal dollars into Virginia initially, but those 90-100 percent federal subsidies will not last indefinitely. As Congress faces long-term budget realities and inevitably must lower the subsidies below 90 percent, Medicaid expansion would begin to crowd out other state budget priorities like education, transportation and public safety at an even faster pace than it is currently.

Currently, Medicaid costs almost $9 billion a year and consumes about 22 percent of our general fund budget in Virginia. It is the fastest-growing part of our budget, growing at an average of eight percent annually.

Moreover, it may not just be the subsidies themselves that drive up the costs of providing health care through Medicaid in Virginia. According to some, around one-third of doctors are already unwilling to accept Medicaid patients due to reimbursement rates that are substantially lower than private-sector health care coverage. Flooding an additional 400,000 Virginians into the existing pool of doctors will drive the percentage who can see a primary care physician down even further. This will leave many Medicaid patients with no option but to use emergency rooms for acute needs.

A Harvard study that looked at outcomes of a 2008 expansion of Medicaid in Oregon confirmed that it dramatically increased emergency room use — driving people into the highest-cost health care option. This finding goes against the promise of the Affordable Care Act that expanding Medicaid would help bend the health care cost curve down.

Low Medicaid reimbursement rates coupled with increased use of both emergency rooms and doctor visits will also shift even more costs for providing health care to private sector health plans. This will force more middle class Virginians to make more tough choices in their family budgets as premiums rise in the coming years.

All told, there are simply too many unanswered questions surrounding Medicaid expansion in Virginia to demand it be included in this budget. Governor McAuliffe and Democrats in Richmond should accept the budget that has been agreed to, and then take Republicans up on their offer to hold a special session to fully debate Medicaid expansion.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.

The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Last week, Arlington Public Schools’ Superintendent Patrick Murphy released his proposed budget. The total price tag is $539.4 million. Murphy reported per pupil spending would climb to $19,244. Those numbers were reinforced in a presentation by Arlington School Board members at this week’s Civic Federation meeting.

By way of comparison, tuition and fees this year at Marymount University are $26,430. Full-time tuition and fees for Spring 2014 at George Mason University are $5,129 for a new, in-state student — just over $10,000 total for a school year.

The APS budget proposes to make an iPad or tablet available to every second grader as well as a Chromebook for every sixth grader. It looks at the future possibility of providing foreign language instruction at every elementary school. And, it reflects higher health-care costs.

It is likely there are many line items in the budget that will come under intense scrutiny over the coming weeks and months before it is finalized in May. The purpose of this column is not to question specific line items within the school budget, but to question whether the presentation of the budget should under-report the actual total per pupil cost in our school budget?

The projected enrollment for the next school year is 24,153. If you divide $539.4 million by the projected enrollment, the per pupil cost is $22,333 — not $19,244.

It goes without saying that $3,089 per student is not a small difference. It adds up to more than $74 million that would not be accounted for in the total budget when you multiply the difference by the enrollment.

There is almost certainly an accounting rationale for Superintendent Murphy’s use of a per pupil spending figure that is $3,089 less than it actually is. However, if you are going to claim you are giving the taxpayers a per pupil cost, it should actually reflect the total cost per pupil to provide education to Arlington students.

The questions remains then, why does the APS budget report per pupil costs this way? It is a question our School Superintendent and School Board should answer.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.