The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyOn Tuesday, the County Board approved the FY 2013 closeout and re-appropriation measure.

According to the report accompanying the County Board’s agenda, tax revenue once again came in well ahead of predictions, by $27.9 million. The largest contributor to the surplus was real estate revenues, to the tune of $15.3 million. In percentage terms, real estate tax revenues ran 2.6% ahead of budgeted amounts.

In April, the County Board passed a 3.6 percent real estate tax increase. To justify it, the County Manager and the County Board cited a FY 2014 budget “shortfall.”

As it turns out for the 2013 fiscal year, and virtually every fiscal year in recent memory, the county underestimated the revenues that would be generated by the tax rate. Even if you agree with all of the spending priorities passed by the County Board in its annual budget, the surplus suggests your real estate taxes alone could have been 2 percent lower. And just as in previous years, the $27.9 million underestimation of all revenues was enough to actually lower your real estate tax rate even further.

The board also spends millions each year reclaimed from budget savings — adopting the federal government approach of “use it or lose it.” For FY 2013, the budget over-estimated the costs of government activities for the year by $25.3 million, but the money was still spent on other items. Among those items was $1.7 million in additional subsidies to the Artisphere, which was supposed to become self-sufficient by now.

In so doing, the board can say that they spent all that was budgeted in the prior fiscal year. This keeps the baseline of spending on an upward trajectory in order to help create another budget “shortfall” for FY 2015. You can find more information for next year’s budget in this report. County Manager Barbara Donnellan preliminarily estimates the “shortfall” will be $7.7 million. However, if you used this year’s actual surplus of excess revenues plus savings for comparison, that “shortfall” could actually become a $45.5 million surplus.

Granted, the county manager’s report also notes the schools could have up to $16 million in additional costs caused by higher enrollment. However, based on the consistent underestimation of revenue and over-estimation of costs, we can safely assume the FY 2015 revenues will more than cover school needs. And, it will still leave us with room to spare without necessitating another tax increase.

The board did give its budget guidance on Tuesday as well, and did not recommend a tax rate increase for next year. At the same time, your tax bill will still rise with your assessment by an average of $300 per homeowner. And, the Board regularly ignores its initial guidance.

Chairman Tejada’s comments that tax increases were still on the table in the budget process means the chances anyone on the board will propose the real estate rate cut the county could afford are somewhere south of slim-to-none. But, it is important to understand these numbers if the board comes to you in the spring and asks for another tax rate increase.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyThis week, County Manager Barbara Donnellan raised a number of concerns about allowing backyard hens in Arlington. On her list: difficulty of enforcement, public health, sanitation, and even a Virginia law that could put local dogs in jeopardy from overzealous hen owners. In short, rumors that county staff were no fans of the hen proposal have finally been confirmed.

Both sides jumped into the fray after the County Board work session to claim their position was winning the day. If you have not been following, the groups have taken on the name Backyards Not Barnyards and the Arlington Egg Project.

What we know is that we will be waiting a bit longer for a final decision on whether chicken coops will ultimately be allowed in Arlington yards. Based on the slow pace this issue is making along the Arlington Way, it is more likely than not that the final decision will not come to a vote before Chris Zimmerman resigns in late January.

The current scoreboard indicates the remaining County Board Members are split. It seems as though Mary Hynes and Libby Garvey would prefer to table the issue and focus on other priorities, while Jay Fisette and Walter Tejada want to get it done. So, the next County Board member could hold the deciding vote next year. Soon-to-be Chairman Fisette will most certainly keep this issue alive once he assumes control over the gavel.

With Democrat candidates already out lining up support for the special election they should be prepared to tread lightly on this issue as it could be a deciding factor in a low turnout firehouse primary. Add hens to the Columbia Pike trolley as issues candidates will need to “finesse” as they work to build support for their campaigns.

More than an election issue, it represents a rare 3-2 split for a panel that usually agrees to agree. It is refreshing to see a difference of opinion on the Board instead of single party groupthink, but these instances are still too few and far between.

Chris Zimmerman’s departure will create a new dynamic on the Board, in more ways than just hens — or even the Columbia Pike trolley’s future. A new Board Member who has political independence from one-party rule, and pledges to create a new era of transparency, accountability and fiscal responsibility, would be a breath of fresh air for Arlington.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyYesterday, Chris Zimmerman announced he was resigning from the County Board before his term ends next year. Zimmerman will take on a full-time job with Smart Growth America.

Unapologetically liberal, Zimmerman believes in steadily raising taxes in order to grow government. Zimmerman has never pulled punches when it comes to partisan politics either. He took regular swings at Republicans in Richmond and Washington.

In his retirement announcement, Zimmerman gave a predictably upbeat assessment of his 18-year tenure on the County Board. No one can blame him for leaving out less successful initiatives like the Artisphere, or empty ground floor retail space, or the decline of Metro while he served on the WMATA Board.

With Metro in mind, it can be noted Zimmerman has served on every transportation commission in the region — fashioning himself into a go-to guy for Democrats on the issue. Zimmerman’s most famous pet transportation project is, of course, the proposed Columbia Pike trolley. What Arlingtonians can ask today is, does Zimmerman’s retirement provide a glimmer of hope that the project could still be stopped?

It is no doubt other Board members do not share Zimmerman’s passion for it. A win by a trolley opponent in the special election would mean Libby Garvey would gain an ally and a second vote against the trolley’s construction. It will be interesting to watch what promises to be a crowded Democratic field take positions, or bend themselves in rhetorical knots not to take a position, on the trolley.

In 2010, I had the opportunity to run against Mr. Zimmerman in what looks like it may be his last campaign for public office. It goes without saying that we agree on very little politically. However, he was always friendly and considerate at our various joint appearances and other community events where our paths crossed on the campaign trail, regardless of whether voters were watching.

In particular, I recall a specific event at Thomas Jefferson Middle School where he went out of his way to be gracious to my two young daughters who were campaigning with me. While I may be cheering for Mr. Zimmerman’s signature project to come to an unceremonious end, and soon, I wish him all the best as he moves on from elected office.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark Kelly

9. Dollars Before Dorothy. McAuliffe left his sobbing wife and newborn baby in the car on the way home from the hospital to attend a DNC fundraiser. But, hey, it was a million bucks.

8. Everyone Fudges Their Resume. McAuliffe pointed to Franklin Pellets as a successful green energy venture. Except the facility still sits dormant.

7. Everyone Fudges Their Resume (Part 2). McAuliffe claimed his company, GreenTech Automotive, was creating hundreds of jobs here in America under his watch. Except that it hasn’t.

6. What Didn’t He Know. . . Speaking of GreenTech, Governor Kaine’s administration rejected economic development assistance for the company because of concerns it looked like a cash-for-visas scheme. McAuliffe moved the planned plant, which has not been built, to Mississippi. The SEC began an investigation into GreenTech earlier this year as a cash-for-visas scheme. McAuliffe claims to have no knowledge of it.

5. . . . and When Didn’t He Know It. After news reports about his investment in a scheme to steal the identities of the terminally ill, McAuliffe claimed to know nothing about it.

4. Believes Money Grows on Trees. . . McAuliffe believes Medicaid expansion is free money for Virginia. Setting aside the fact that Medicaid expansion is essentially “paid for” by Medicare cuts, it is true the next governor would be able to expand Medicaid with little impact on the state budget. However, while the federal match is at 100 percent now, the state share will phase in to 10 percent beginning in 2017. In order to meet the 10 percent match, Virginia will need to raise taxes, or other priorities like education and transportation will be squeezed out of Virginia’s budget. And, with a growing $17 trillion national debt, it is unlikely the federal match will remain at 90 percent for very long.

3. . . . and Obamacare is Working as Promised. No one is a bigger cheerleader for Obamacare than the former DNC Chairman. McAuliffe ignored basic economics which undercut the law’s two big selling points: if you like your health care plan, you can keep it; and your premiums will go down. McAuliffe’s campaign website issues page still claims exchanges will “lower costs” despite all evidence to the contrary.

2. His “Expertise” on Virginia. One of McAuliffe’s transportation priorities was to build a “four lane” a highway that is already four lanes. With no experience in Virginia government, McAuliffe will need on-the-job training to be governor. Cuccinelli, on the other hand, can hit the ground running and keep doing things like this.

And the number one Terry McAuliffe qualification is . . .

1. Has a Plan for Getting Things Done. While offering no specific policy proposals, McAuliffe told the Northern Virginia TechPAC board his secret to being governor – invite everyone out for drinks. The board endorsed Cuccinelli because he actually offered serious, detail-oriented responses to their questions.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyThe county staff response to the Urban Agriculture Task Force’s recommendations will be formally presented at a County Board work session Nov. 12. The most high profile among the recommendations is the consideration of allowing Arlingtonians to keep backyard chickens. If accepted, individuals would be able to have as many as four hens so long as the coops are set back 20 feet from their property lines, and a majority of their adjacent neighbors agree.

The biggest question seems to surround enforcement. How will the county enforce the inspection requirements for new coops as well as ongoing policing to ensure chicken owners stay in compliance? What will they do about people who do not file plans but put coops in their backyards anyway? Will fees for coops and fines for failures to comply cover any need to hire new county code enforcement personnel? Assuming revenue generated by chickens will not cover any costs, how will new personnel be paid for?

The recommendations are a priority for 2013 Board Chairman Tejada, so look for him to try to push these along before his term ends Jan. 1.

Next month, the County Board will consider what to do with excess revenue in the closeout process. Based on recent history, they could have up to tens of millions of dollars to spend outside of the regular budget process. Remember that in a couple months when the County Manager and County Board tell us we have to pay more in property taxes or fees next year because we have a “budget shortfall.”

The Potomac Yard Harris Teeter re-opened after an 18 month closure caused by a sewage backup that was not of their own making. Harris Teeter has sued Arlington County for $1 million in damages, alleging negligence for the backup. Reports on the causes at the time would lead one to believe Harris Teeter may have a case. If so, hopefully the county will settle this quickly rather than burning up time and legal fees for any outside counsel. The Board, as you may remember, ran up well over $1 million in legal fees to sue everyone they could think of during the HOT lanes fight.

Residents across the South Arlington neighborhoods near the Pentagon were largely opposed to the PenPlace development approved by the County Board in September. Among residents’ concerns about the development’s impact on the neighborhoods were traffic, public safety, services, like grocery stores, and parks.  Less than a month later, the Board approved an updated Arlington Ridge Neighborhood Conservation plan which covers some of the area near the PenPlace development. The Arlington Ridge plan had not been revised in 40 years.

Kudos to local residents whose concerns about the Crystal City Sector Plan and PenPlace were largely ignored when the County Board approved the plans. After the Crystal City Plan went through over their objections three years ago, they made sure to tee up the new conservation plan to push the County Board to accept when their PenPlace objections met the same fate.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyTerry McAuliffe finally released a summary of his 2012 tax returns. The release came on the heels of reports a company McAuliffe invested in was stealing the identities of the terminally ill.

McAuliffe claims he was a “passive investor in a life insurance annuity pool,” but the lawyer for the convicted Rhode Island estate planner Joseph Caramadre said investors knew he was exploiting a loophole to give investors a portion of the death benefit. If so, most of us would ask questions. Did you know what type of investment you had made? How and when did you become a passive investor in such a scheme? What type of people would you be connected to who would steer you to this type of shady investment?

The McAuliffe campaign did not release the sources of his $9.5 million income for 2012. So, valid questions remain about how much McAuliffe profited from the aforementioned identity theft scheme or from GreenTech Automotive. GreenTech, you may recall, is under investigation into whether it was a cash-for-visas scheme.

No one except Terry McAuliffe knows for sure how much he knew about alleged wrongdoing either situation. In GreenTech’s case, we know McAuliffe has portrayed himself as a hands on “jobs creator” — or what, in reality, turned out to be a “virtually no jobs” creator. If McAuliffe was actively involved in GreenTech as he claims, he must know a lot more than he is saying publicly.

Quite frankly, the McAuliffe campaign believes he is going to win on November 5th. And, if the polls are correct, the belief may be well-founded. So, he has clearly made a strategic decision to try and run out the clock on this storyline. But, these are serious questions about the business dealings of a man who wants to be our governor and who says he wants to create jobs.

Before election day, it would be nice to know what Terry McAuliffe did know and when did he know it? My advice: don’t hold your breath waiting for the answers.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyIf you are like me, your attention has been focused on the ongoing drama surrounding the government slowdown and not as much on local news over the past two weeks. In addition to the statewide, General Assembly and local races on the ballot in November is the referendum to create an Arlington public housing authority. The issue had not received a good deal of coverage before the slowdown drama, and I am not sure the yard signs its supporters have now deployed will do much to break through the noise.

The proponents of the referendum say Arlington’s current approach to affordable housing has proven ineffective in keeping up with the market forces that are driving up housing prices. They argue we should try the approach used by Fairfax County and the City of Alexandria and bring Arlington’s efforts directly under the county’s umbrella rather than using existing public-private partnerships. They say that it would leverage local dollars to obtain additional federal assistance and reduce duplication of efforts.

The opponents of a public housing authority say Arlington already spends a higher percentage of its budget than neighboring jurisdictions without adding to government bureaucracy. This argument actually united the local Democrat and Republican Parties in opposition in 2008.

It has done so again this year. At their September meeting, Republicans debated the merits of getting more bang for our taxpayer dollars, but ultimately decided they could not be assured Arlingtonians would get more value by creating a new local government agency.

There is a lot of valid criticism to be had for how the Arlington County Board “negotiates” with developers. The negotiations often come down to a set of demands a developer must meet. Developers are usually willing to quietly go along with the Board’s demands in exchange for more density than they would otherwise be entitled to. The Green Party, which is backing the referendum, opposes the additional density as well.

Outside of affordable housing, such negotiations have led to empty ground floor retail, an empty art gallery space, and proposed construction of a taxpayer-subsidized black box theater. One could argue strongly that the Board’s planning record leaves a lot to be desired, and that maybe a change to its approach on housing is in order.

While I must admit that part of me would like to strike a blow against the County Board’s business as usual approach, I have to agree with my fellow Republicans on this one. There is no guarantee a public housing authority get additional results on affordable housing, but we would guarantee the expansion of local government. And as regular readers here know, I think we pay too much in taxes for a government that is already big enough.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyIf you missed the story in the midst of all the federal government slowdown news, the Civic Federation passed a resolution calling on the county to hire an internal, independent auditor. The vote was 40-2.

This idea is about more than the well-documented trolley cost under-estimate and the super stop fiasco. Arlington has an annual budget of more than $1 billion, hundreds of millions in cash on hand, and county debt of around $1 billion. Taxpayers simply deserve to receive financial information from an independent voice, similar to federal government offices of inspector general (OIG).

Like federal OIG offices, it is the hope of many of us who believe strongly in this concept, that new auditors will be given autonomy from the County Manager and County Board. Otherwise, taxpayers cannot have full confidence that findings were not in any way compromised by the chain of command.

Unlike the current budget impasse in Washington, the call for additional transparency and accountability from our county government is not a partisan issue. If you look at the Civic Federation executive committee, it is led by former Republican County Board candidate Michael McMenamin, but also has former Democratic County Board candidate Kim Klingler as a member. And of course, you cannot get 95 percent of the votes at the Civic Federation on a resolution without receiving votes from across the ideological spectrum.

The big question remaining is, why does the County Board continue to reject this idea?

One excuse most certain to be offered by the board is that we cannot afford it. To that I would respond — the Arlington County Board spent $1 million on a bus stop. And, the County Board will spend millions in closeout funds next month.

We deserve, and can afford, an inspector general to account for how each dollar is spent. If our elected officials do not provide this accountability, we can only assume the County Board and County Manager prefer to maintain total control over the dissemination of information about our taxpayer dollars are being spent.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyThe County Board announced it has awarded a $97,000 contract for yet another study of the Columbia Pike trolley. The study will look at data about the current trolley and bus plans versus bus-only alternatives.

In the past, the Board has ignored the data and input it does not believe fits the narrative that a trolley on Columbia Pike is, well, a big shiny ball of awesome. And, the consensus among people I talk to who are regular “Board watchers” is this study is a play to see if the Board can take another run at federal funding. As Chairman Tejada said, the trolley is “County Board policy.”

Not that you need reminding, but the trolley’s poster child thus far is a $1 million “super stop” that is so super, you cannot really stay dry under it when it rains. The “super stop” is for buses now, but is one of over 20 that will be used for the trolley as well.

One point about the not-so-super bus stop that is often missed in the debate is that it took 18 months to build. If you commute on Columbia Pike, imagine if it takes 18 months to install all the necessary infrastructure for the trolley. Worse, if you own a business along the Pike, imagine how many people will want to brave the construction to visit your store during the construction.

It is no secret that I have endorsed a bipartisan group of Arlingtonians who view this trolley project as a boondoggle. Arlingtonians for Sensible Transit not only opposes the trolley, but offers real insight into the alternatives. But, no cost estimates, usage data or public concerns have been able to move the Board from its position thus far.

Unfortunately, the Board’s ongoing “trolley at all costs” approach should not surprise us.

Thanks to Frank O’Leary, we know our Board has built up a record surplus after telling us for years that it was facing “tough choices” caused by “budget shortfalls”. After spending millions of dollars in excess revenues in the closeout process on non-budgeted items each fall, they have implored us to be OK with raising our taxes the next year because there was “just no way to avoid it.”

The average Board Member has 15 years of experience spending our money in this manner and are showing no signs of stopping. Until voters change a Board Member or two, it is safe to assume the Board will see no real incentive to change its behavior.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyLate last week, Terry McAuliffe lost the endorsement of a pro-business technology PAC here in Northern Virginia. After state Sen. Janet Howell (D-32) and others tried unsuccessfully to intervene on his behalf, with what amounted to threats of retaliation, the truth came about about the rationale behind the endorsement.

According to a Washington Post report, “. . . Cuccinelli had detailed responses to questions in candidate interviews, three board members said, while McAuliffe was uninformed and superficial . . .”

The Post story continued,

“He (McAuliffe) didn’t want to get pinned down to any details. He didn’t give any details.”

And.

Two people present said that in response to a question about how he’d accomplish his goals as governor, McAuliffe told the PAC board that as an Irish Catholic he’d be adept at taking people out for drinks and doing whatever it takes to get things done.“

And.

Cuccinelli, by contrast, the person said, “was precise. He was thoughtful. He thought through all the issues. He had a clear position on all those issues, and he didn’t agree with the council on all the issues.”

To top it off, McAuliffe said, “I am not going to read every bill when I’m governor. I’m going to hire people to read them for me.”

So, to be clear, McAuliffe walked into an important interview with only vague ideas for what he wanted to do as governor. He had no clearly thought out positions on the issues that mattered to the people he was meeting with. He had no desire to read or understand legislation that would be up for his consideration. And, his fall back position was to invite people over for drinks.

Yet, his campaign was apparently shocked that he would not receive the endorsement. So much so in fact, that they made a desperate attempt to strong arm the organization to change its mind by saying they would be unwelcome in Democrat offices in Richmond.

It is fairly well established that McAuliffe’s claims about his business success with Franklin Pellets and GreenTech Automotive have little basis in reality. GreenTech is particularly egregious since McAuliffe claimed to have done so much, but when asked about why they were under SEC investigation seemed to know so little.

The bottom line is that McAuliffe’s qualifications as a “pro-business Democrat” were threatened by losing this endorsement. While one endorsement may not matter in the ultimate outcome on election day, it shows Terry McAuliffe’s “I’m not Ken Cuccinelli” campaign is starting to wear thin.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


The Right Note is a weekly opinion column published on Thursdays. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARLnow.com.

Mark KellyAs we countdown to Election Day Nov. 5, we are reminded that in politics, facts and figures are thrown around quite often. One thing is certain: the numbers a politician uses will be the ones most likely to make their point.

One of my favorites is when Arlington’s elected officials extol the virtues of Arlington’s “low” tax rate. Chris Zimmerman was quoted in one article earlier this year saying Arlington is “eating everyone else’s lunch” on tax rates. Zimmerman credited “smart growth” for bringing in commercial projects and keeping taxes “low.”

While it’s true Arlington has a relatively low tax rate, it is our prime location that is responsible for bringing in relatively high commercial property tax revenue compared to our neighbors. Thanks to the Pentagon, Reagan National Airport, the U.S. Capitol, and federal agencies situated just over the river, no jurisdiction in Northern Virginia or Maryland is more well positioned geographically than Arlington.

What our board never talks about is the average out-of-pocket cost of Arlingtonians relative to our neighbors’. The median home value in Arlington is around $524,700. The new tax rate for the year is $1.006 for every $100 in assessed value. So, the average tax bill for Arlingtonians is $5278.48. In Fairfax, the average tax bill is $5052.98. In Alexandria, the average bill is even lower at $4885.48. So, the average Arlingtonian is paying more out of pocket, not less.

I had the opportunity to run against Chris Zimmerman in 2010 for County Board. On the campaign trail he liked to say that you pay more in taxes for the same house in other jurisdictions. But, I think we all know that, with the exception of Alexandria, a $500,000 house in most neighboring Virginia jurisdictions is substantially larger than one in Arlington. How many people do you know that moved out of Arlington to get “more house for the money”?

Over time, I guess elected officials just start believing their own spin. Between School Board and County Board terms, County Board members have been thinking of ways to spend other people’s money for over 15 years on average. This long-term penchant for driving up taxes lead to an astonishingly high cash on hand surplus — news our Board tried to quickly brush aside.

We should keep this in mind as our Board starts talking about spending so-called “closeout,” also known as surplus tax, dollars from the fiscal year that just ended, rather than returning them to us in the form of lower taxes next year. Or, you can just plan on eating lunch out a little less to pay your low tax rate.

Mark Kelly is a former Arlington GOP Chairman and two-time Republican candidate for Arlington County Board.


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