(Updated at 4:10 p.m.) Tight races for the state legislature and proposed restrictions on abortion motivated Virginians to the polls on Election Day.

This was despite the lack of statewide and federal elections, which typically drive turnout. The races for local office and the Virginia General Assembly played out against the backdrop of Republicans vying for a trifecta — control of the governor’s office as well as the lower and upper legislature chambers — and Democrats trying to stop them.

At stake were abortion rights, as Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) floated trying to pass a 15-week ban if Republicans took the Senate and kept the House.

Arlington had two state Senate and several House of Delegates seats on the ballot. Only three races had challengers, however, and among them Democratic incumbents Sen. Adam Ebbin, Sen. Barbara Favola and Del. Alfonso Lopez all won last night. While their road to victory was easier, the competition was stiff elsewhere in Virginia, commanding their attention and that of other politically minded Arlingtonians.

“It’s a little strange in Arlington because we’re in this blue bubble in what’s essentially a purple state leaning slightly toward Democrats,” says Sam Shirazi, an East Falls Church resident and Virginia elections analyst. “Virginia is just one of those states where, especially in these state elections, as opposed to federal elections, it’s almost always going to be close. ”

Shirazi had predicted Democrats would secure slim majorities in the Senate and House of Delegates, which he says is coming to pass. Democrats flipped the House and retained the Senate, not in a sweep but by securing key seats in suburban counties such as Loudoun and Henrico.

Arlington played a supporting role in these races, says Arlington County Democratic Chair Steve Baker. Volunteers spent 40 days canvassing, making thousands of phone calls and sending out 18,000 postcards and targeted seven districts of which Democrats won in six.

“Grassroots organizing works,” said Kip Malinosky, chair of the initiative dubbed Beyond Arlington. “Democrats win when we’re talking about issues that matter: abortion rights, voting rights, and gun safety. I’m proud that we played a role in helping Democrats win across the state.”

State Sen. Adam Ebbin, who was re-elected in the 39th District, said Virginians sent their governor a strong message last night.

That message would be that you can work with people across the aisle to get things done for the betterment of the Commonwealth rather than dividing them in a cynical and twisted manner. And I believe that Virginians don’t want, and will express by the end of tonight, that we don’t want the government banning books. We don’t want people interfering with our personal freedoms, whether it’s reproductive rights, your right to breathe clean air, or the safety of our communities from gun violence.

Shirazi says the state races were closer due to Virginia’s 2021 redistricting effort, in which he participated.

“Previously the maps were drawn by the legislatures themselves and obviously they had an incentive to try and protect themselves, to maybe protect their party,” he said. “This time… a lot of the incumbents, either in the primary or the general election, lost, so we had a lot of turnover in the General Assembly, and then, both chambers were competitive because they weren’t drawn to favor either party.”

“That’s why there was a lot of suspense going into the election,” he continued.

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Voting in Courthouse (staff photo by Jay Westcott)

Early voting is picking up speed in Arlington while Arlington County Board candidates focus on Missing Middle and taxes.

The general election on Nov. 7 is less than two weeks away and at this point, far more people are voting early in person this year compared to 2019, the last election year without gubernatorial or presidential races.

More than 4,700 mailed ballots have been returned, leaving around 9,000 still outstanding, while some 3,000 people have already hit the polls, per Arlington’s voter turnout dashboard. Early in-person voting appears to have picked up this week with the election drawing nearer and after polling places opened Tuesday at Madison and Walter Reed community centers.

Early in-person voting in Arlington in 2019 and 2023 (via Arlington County)

As Election Day looms nearer, Arlington County Board candidates have focused on few key local issues and the importance of voting, generally.

Republican Juan Carlos Fierro weighed in after a judge ruled residents have standing to sue the county for its Missing Middle ordinances.

“One of the reasons I entered this campaign for the County Board is because of my concern that the existing County Board was ramrodding Missing Middle without considering the views of most citizens, and for not conducting adequate development impact analysis,” Fierro said in a statement.

If elected, he said he will question all projects that increase density without considering negative impacts and respect that homeowners “do have in fact ‘standing’ to challenge the County’s development policies.”

Not enough study of potential impacts is one of the charges the residents who sued levied against the county. Arlington County did hear from many residents about a myriad concerns while deliberating the zoning changes and, after a three-phase study that included a financial analysis, the county determined impacts would be “manageable because the pace of change will be gradual and incremental.”

“While the Judge’s ruling is a positive step to either repeal or modify Missing Middle, it underscores the fact that the County’s public engagement process is not very democratic,” he continued. “The Judge admonished the County Attorney for stating that the lawsuit was a ‘subversion of our democratic process.’ The County Attorney’s comment illustrates the lack of understanding by the County on what is true public engagement.”

Repeat independent candidate Audrey Clement, meanwhile, is focused on lowering taxes and convincing residents not to vote for a straight Democratic ticket.

In a recent email newsletter, she noted Arlington County Board Chair Christian Dorsey discussed a possible tax increase next year during this month’s Arlington County Democratic Committee meeting.

“ACDC is confident that it can quell any taxpayer revolt by simply passing out the Democratic Party Blue Ballot at the polls on Election Day,” Clement said. “When voters refuse to hold their elected officials accountable at the ballot box by blindly voting the Blue Ballot, excessive taxation is the result.”

She urged readers to “turn this situation around” by voting for fiscal conservatives such as herself and Fierro. Together, she says, they will also revisit Missing Middle ordinances, emphasize basic services and reduce the office vacancy rate.

The two appear to have formed an informal alternative joint ticket to Democratic nominees Maureen Coffey and Susan Cunningham, to fill the seats vacated by now-former Board member Katie Cristol and being vacated by Dorsey.

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Early voters check in at Madison Community Center on Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2021 (Staff photo by David Taube)

In the first gubernatorial race since Virginia implemented an array of voting reforms, one thing remains the same: early voter turnout in Arlington continues to surpass regional and state levels.

It’s a trend that Arlington’s general registrar and election director Gretchen Reinemeyer says she has seen since she started working with the county in 2008 as a seasonal employee with the Voting and Elections Office.

As of yesterday (Wednesday), over 27,000 early ballots in Arlington County were cast, consisting of nearly 10,000 mail-in ballots and over 17,000 in-person votes.

Thus far, Arlington’s early voting rate is nearly 18%, higher than Northern Virginia’s rate of roughly 16% rate and the Commonwealth’s 14.4% turnout, according to the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project

Arlington held its first Sunday voting ever on Oct. 24, with 1,454 voters casting ballots in four hours, according to the county. As of July 1, the state permitted the general registrars or electoral boards of jurisdictions to decide if they want to provide voting on Sundays.

I thought [it] was a very successful inaugural Sunday voting event,” said Matt Weinstein, chair of the county’s three-member Electoral Board, adding that he’d like to see the county do it again.

Arlington’s elevated early voter turnout rate may not be a new phenomenon, but there are a few new changes Gov. Ralph Northam signed into law last year to improve voter participation.

One law dropped the requirement of voters providing an approved reason for absentee voting as of last year’s presidential election. Another law automatically registers people to vote (unless they decline) when they get a driver’s license or make other changes with the Department of Motor Vehicles.

While early voting may increase access to the polls, it does make the job of election outcome predicting more difficult, according to former Arlington County Treasurer and local amateur election prognosticator Frank O’Leary.

“In the past, it was possible to estimate absentee turnout, as Election Day approached, and from that statistic estimate total turnout,” he said. “Unfortunately, ‘absentee voting’ (which was relatively restrictive) has been supplanted by early voting… Thus, all my prior statistics of absentee voting are rendered null and void, which reduces me to ‘guesstimating’ Arlington’s turnout and by inference that of all Virginia.”

This year, he estimates a voter turnout of 56.7% or about 87,000 people for Arlington County, compared to the county’s turnout for the last gubernatorial race in 2017 of 59.4% or 85,382 votes.