What’s Next

What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

In many ways our workforce is changing, both due to COVID-19 and as Arlington’s economy continues to evolve.

As a community it is important that we study this impact on both our employment rate for our community’s personal economic vitality and our commercial office occupancy rate that contributes to 20% of our county tax revenue.

In the short term, on balance, Arlington’s economy is faring well compared to the D.C. region and nation at large. Arlington’s unemployment rate is the lowest of all counties in the region at 6%, compared to 11% nationally. In June, Arlington collected 95-98% of expected tax revenue successfully. It remains to be seen how we will fare this fall if we do not receive another round of stimulus.

Amazon continues to expand their office presence in Crystal City despite work from home policies, as we expect them to become the county’s largest employer and take up a significant amount of vacant office space. Hotel occupancy and revenue is significantly down from 76% occupancy at this time last year to 23% last month, which also means Arlington does not owe Amazon incentive payments that were tied to hotel taxes (a well negotiated clawback in my opinion).

In the long term, there is uncertainty on the future of our work culture. COVID-19 has forced over 95% of the American workforce to telecommuting practically overnight according to a recent Senate EPW Committee Hearing. Further, a recent Stanford-University of Chicago-Atlanta Federal Reserve survey expects work-from-home to quadruple from 5% to 20% even after COVID-19, and according to a PWC survey about 90% of employers expect about 1/3 of their employees to continue to work remotely at least one day a week.

How this might impact our office tax revenue projections still has yet to be seen. PWC’s survey is inconclusive on how employers plan to increase or decrease office space in the future, with half saying they plan to keep the same amount of office space or decrease their space and half planning to increase square footage citing remodels to create a more collaborative environment for the time that employees are actually in the office.

Of planned future office space, real estate services company JLL shows that in our submarket, the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor and Tysons currently both have the same amount of office space, but in the pipeline, Tysons has 13.5 million sq. ft. planned versus only 3 million sq. ft. for the R-B corridor. This is a shift in Arlington from commercial office space to commercial residential (apartments) that shows a far higher occupancy demand.

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What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

Get ready for a data dump. Arlington’s 2020 Profile was recently released and it is full of eye opening statistics. 

Overall Arlington is a young, multi-family building community, with prices that continue to soar, as we continue to lose racial diversity. We are also very eco-friendly in our transportation and an incredibly healthy county that is supported by vast community resources.

This might not sound surprising but the data points paint a stark picture. For your own visualization, reference the 2020 Arlington Profile, and for comparative purposes that you will see throughout this article, the 2010 Arlington Profile.

Population Demographics

Our population has the highest percentage of prime working age adults in the United States. 54% of our population is between the ages of 25-54. It is no wonder that employers are flocking to Arlington since of those prime working age adults, 75% have a bachelor’s degree or above.

Our workforce is also getting paid for their skills. Arlington’s median household income is $117,374, compared to $102,180 in the DC Metro Region.

The jurisdiction that Arlingtonians are most likely to work is Washington DC, while people that work in Arlington are likely to live in Fairfax County. We have increased our employment by 27,000 employees in the past ten years and continue to have a significantly smaller unemployment rate than the surrounding DC Metro Area.

Our growth and success in many ways has been to the detriment of racial diversity in the county. Our population is 4% more white, 3% less hispanic, and 1% less black than in 2010.

Housing

In the 2020 Arlington Profile, 71% of our homes were in either an apartment or condo. 60% of our housing stock is rented. When accounting for the dollar’s purchasing power, average rent increased by 12% since 2010, while condominium unit assessments increased by just 1.6%Half of Arlington’s residents live in Metro corridors or Columbia Pike, and take up just 22% of the county’s residential land area.

Single family homes and townhouses make up less than 30% of the housing stock in Arlington. Of those housing types, 83.3% are owned and populate 78% of our residential land area. Single family home assessments have increased by 25% while condo style townhomes have increased by 14%, attached townhouses have increased by 9%, and co-ops have decreased by 12.5%.

Over the last ten years we have added 16,317 multi-family homes, while losing 3,895 townhomes and 449 single family homes. On a Condo Owner and Renters Coalition call, Housing Staff indicated 90% of net new homes built in the past 10 years have been apartments and 10% condos.

When looking at these striking numbers I dug into representation. How Arlington typically sorts our communities is into civic association neighborhoods when determining how much of a say they have in many issues.

As an example, the Crystal City Civic Association represents just under 8,000 households. Its largest building, Crystal House, has 1,647 homes. If you add up the homes represented by the civic associations of Riverwood (57), Rivercrest (125), Gulf Branch (176), Arlingwood (106), Chain Bridge Forest (107), Forest Glen (88), and Glebewood (222), these seven single family household civic associations represent the same amount of people as about half of the people in one building in one civic association of a multi-family building heavy area.

As we continue to grow in our corridors, it is important that we make an effort to ensure multi-family buildings are fairly represented in our decision making process.

Transportation

Arlingtonians are much more likely than average to take an environmentally friendly commute to work. In Arlington, only 39% of residents drive alone to work, compared to 76% nationally. 40% take public transit, 8% bike/walk, and 4% taxi/rideshare or carpool.

Metro ridership also continues to go down at a startling rate. Even prior to COVID-19, Metro use is down 14% in the past ten years in Arlington. Meanwhile, ART bus ridership has doubled. Of our public transportation uses, bus ridership still only represents ¼ of users while metro represents ¾.

Conclusion

Data informed discussions are necessary in our policy decisions. Take a few minutes to study this document and understand the ten-thousand foot view of who we are. It is easy to be stuck in our own bubble, but when coming to a community conversation I hope everyone is able to understand the bigger picture of how they fit into the discussion by using this data.

Nicole Merlene is an Arlington native and former candidate for Virginia State Senate. She has served as a leader in the community on the boards of the Arlington County Civic Federation and North Rosslyn Civic Association, as an Arlington Economic Development commissioner, in neighborhood transportation planning groups, and as a civic liaison to the Rosslyn Business Improvement District.

What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

We have an obvious north-south divide in Arlington County. One state highway uniquely crosses the entire county from north to south — Glebe Road, Route 120.

Traditionally, Arlington has planned along horizontal corridors including Route 50, Columbia Pike, Lee Highway, and Washington/Wilson Boulevard. This is likely because these major road arteries were designed to transport people from the suburbs of Virginia to Washington D.C. These arteries also happen to be in central Arlington and literally divide Arlington between north and south.

Driving along Glebe Road you might notice narrow sidewalks with cars zooming by, and occasional townhomes or duplexes on both the north and south side of the highway. These characteristics are very similar to Lee Highway, which we have already begun a planning process for.

It is a known statistic that north Arlington is more wealthy than south Arlington. American Community Survey data shows that our three lowest per capita income census tracts (excluding Fort Meyer) are between $25,000-40,000, all below Route 50; our three highest per capita income census tracts are $104,000-115,500, all above Route 50.

Planning is a scary topic to broach. This is because it might “change the nature of the neighborhood”. I would note a few things.

Paul Holland and Sandra Chesrown have done a great job leading the Plan Lee Highway process by actively involving neighborhoods in their plan with a block by block approach. This type of engagement in the planning process has largely put at ease early fears by those living along the planning corridor because neighborhoods with varied ideas of what their neighborhood should look like are listened to.

“Planning” also does not necessarily mean massive apartment buildings are coming to your neighborhood. Even in our Metro corridors, we retain single-family households in Ashton Heights and Lyon Park just blocks from Metro stations and Dominion Hills and Boulevard Manner neighborhoods that back right up to Meridian Pint and Patrick Henry Apartments along Wilson Boulevard. Planning in non-Metro corridors often means permitting light density such as townhouses or duplexes on the arterial road and not often does it permeate further into single-family household neighborhoods.

Heavier housing density makes more sense in areas of S. Glebe Road with proximity to I-395, and sections of N. Glebe Road that are close to I-66. Light housing density already exists on N. Glebe north of Lee Highway by way of townhomes such as The Birches, Cathedral View Townhomes, Carriage Hill, and others that most would agree these existing varied household types do not change the “nature” of the neighborhood.

According to the just-released 2020 Arlington Profile, single-family houses on average are assessed at $949,500, single-family townhomes at $805,000, condominium townhouses at $683,900, and condominiums at $421,400. It is also worth noting that Housing Arlington data shows that Arlington’s teardown-rebuild single-family households had an average sale price of $1.7 million. The difference between someone that has the financial means to purchase a $1.7 million home and a $683,900 townhome is vast.

To state the obvious and reiterate what I have already stated, there is high demand for single-family households in both north and south Arlington. Planning Glebe Road would not change that. It would provide, directly along the arterial road, a chance for families in the middle class to access to the north Arlington school system via additional housing diversity, while improving walkability along north and south Glebe Road, and might finally start to create equity between north and south Arlington.

If we want to address issues of geographic equity such as diversity in our schools, I would encourage us to consider planning our north-south arterial corridors and not just those running from east to west. The most obvious first step to do so would be studying Glebe Road.

Nicole Merlene is an Arlington native and former candidate for Virginia State Senate. She has served as a leader in the community on the boards of the Arlington County Civic Federation and North Rosslyn Civic Association, as an Arlington Economic Development commissioner, in neighborhood transportation planning groups, and as a civic liaison to the Rosslyn Business Improvement District.

What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

Right now Arlington has an opportunity to rethink and expand our public feedback process. Since the pandemic began, in-person meetings have been canceled and our county and school system’s public engagement processes have been required to adapt.

More than half of the school advisory committees were canceled for just a month and began meeting again in May via Microsoft Teams.

All county commission, committee, and advisory group meetings have been canceled for the past three months, and some have a tentative meeting date for July, as long as the agenda topics are related to items on this flow chart. A significant number of commission leaders signed a letter to the Board with concerns that commissions have been unable to meet about a host of important topics such as the Affordable Housing Master Plan, Capital Improvement Plan, Tenant-Landlord related issues, public space use for recreation during COVID-19, and more.

Some of these items are related to COVID-19, some are not, but most continue to be topics that are immediately important for public feedback.

It is understandable that overhauling the meeting structure of more than 60 citizen advisory groups takes a bit of time. Preparing the technology required to meet virtually and ensuring that all state Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requirements are met is no small task, particularly as staff themselves continue to adapt to this new environment.

What this does provide is an opportunity for expanded engagement moving forward. Virtual meetings should not just be used during the pandemic, but for years to come. It is a forum that provides better transparency, equity, and community input. Parents with kids don’t have to miss dinner, people who hear of meetings last minute can jump on rather than make a plan to attend in person.

Virtual meetings put a dent in leveling the playing field for the diversity of opinion. Think of it this way: if there is a building being built next to you and you support it, it is highly unlikely that you will take time out of your day to wait in a room for hours to say that you want the project to happen, whereas if you oppose it, you might be more willing to make that sacrifice. If you are able to join by phone or computer, you might be more willing to quickly make a supporting comment.

County Board meetings also seem to be getting higher viewership with these expanded forms of communication. On Facebook Live, virtual town halls have received between 2,000 to 12,500 viewers, whereas in-person County Board meetings rarely break 300 viewers in person or on Arlington TV. Virtual options have also incorporated options to text in questions while discussion is happening rather than signing up in advance.

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What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

(Updated at 10:25 a.m.) This year has certainly not been normal. Between the murders of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Ahmaud Arbery, and the disproportionate impact that COVID-19 has had on black and brown communities in our country, we continue to need to dig deep and to understand the why, to reflect, and to do better.

I watched the split screen of President Trump advocating the usage of our military against protesters across the country in his Rose Garden address, with another screen showing Arlington County Police on the front lines advancing against peaceful protesters prior to curfew in D.C. I was dismayed and broken-hearted. This was so inconsistent with the images I had been seeing of ACPD helping to block traffic and handing out water to peaceful protesters.

Thankfully, Arlington’s leadership quickly responded and acknowledged the problem. They took decisive and immediate action, and have vowed to re-evaluate the agreement that led to this situation to ensure our policing efforts better reflect the values of our community.

Changing course in inherently flawed systems isn’t easy, but it is necessary. This step was necessary and in a time that many leaders are unable to see a problem in their system, own it, and fix it we are lucky to have leadership with the willingness to do so. This applause though is not for a mission accomplished. This is just the beginning of a larger conversation.

First, we should continue our community conversation about policing. We need to support the national NAACP in their push for:

1. A ban on the use of knee holds and chokeholds as an acceptable practice for police officers.
2. Clear rules on the escalation for the Use of Force Continuum.
3. A ban on shielding from the public officer misconduct information and disciplinary histories in each state’s Open Records Act and denial of recertification credentials for police officers if it is determined that their use of deadly force was unwarranted by federal guidelines.
4. Implementation of Citizen’s Review Boards in municipalities to hold police departments accountable and build public confidence. Arlington NAACP also supports this and states that over 70 communities across the country, including Fairfax, already have one.

Additionally, we should continue our conversation about economic inequalities and building black wealth. When looking for a black-owned business for dinner this weekend I ran into a wall. After crowdsourcing on Arlington Neighbors Helping Each Other Through COVID-19, I found four Arlington black-owned restaurants where I could order dinner, six if I included one coffee shop and an ice cream store.

We must also continue our conversation about diversity within our state representation. Currently, of our seven state delegation members, all are white with the exception of one person of color. Our Human Rights Commission is currently the only commission or working group with a black person or person of color as chair (starting next month that will change with new leadership that includes people that are both black and other people of color).

Furthermore, we should continue our conversation about racial health inequalities now during COVID-19, as well as during less tumultuous times. How do we make sure black and brown people are not dying at disproportionate rates in our community?

Finally, we must continue this conversation about race and white privilege, on every front in our community: from policy to policing, to zoning, healthcare, to school boundaries, small businesses. So many of us are asking what we can do. We can listen, we can ask why, we can do better — we can actively work for change.

Nicole Merlene is an Arlington native and former candidate for Virginia State Senate. She has served as a leader in the community on the boards of the Arlington County Civic Federation and North Rosslyn Civic Association, as an Arlington Economic Development commissioner, in neighborhood transportation planning groups, and as a civic liaison to the Rosslyn Business Improvement District.

What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

Congratulations to Takis Karantonis for his victory in the Arlington County Democrat’s special election nomination process. Takis is a longtime leader in our community having served as the executive director of the Columbia Pike Revitalization Organization, the president of his civic association, and is genuinely a person of good character. I will be proud to support him in the upcoming July 7th special election.

Fill out your absentee voting application here. Due to COVID-19 you may cite “my disability or illness” as your reason for voting by mail.

Governor’s Decision to Re-Open

COVID-19 cases in Arlington hit a peak just four days ago. There is no significant downward trend in Arlington or other northern Virginia jurisdictions such as Fairfax. While the number of statewide cases has begun to decrease in just the past week, we are not part of that collective improvement.

All of this as Virginia ranks #48th in the country for testing rates.

Governor Northam’s decision to reopen the state seems premature and potentially dangerous to us here in Arlington. On Wednesday, Northam seemed to backtrack by saying “If local governments, based on the situation in their own localities, feel that they need to maintain additional restrictions on gatherings or business operations we will allow that and work with the localities.”

If history is any indicator, Arlington had a very difficult time acting on its own accord to implement restrictions prior to the Governor’s order for closure. This is largely due to Virginia being a Dillon Rule state.

I hope the Governor’s office has learned from that disconnect and will be responsive to local government’s requests for authority. If localities such as Arlington decide to implement their own restrictions, I hope the Governor is vocal in relaying that information in his public statements to make it clear what the rules are for various jurisdictions are to the public.

Nicole Merlene is an Arlington native and former candidate for Virginia State Senate. She has served as a leader in the community on the boards of the Arlington County Civic Federation and North Rosslyn Civic Association, as an Arlington Economic Development commissioner, in neighborhood transportation planning groups, and as a civic liaison to the Rosslyn Business Improvement District.

What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

Coronavirus in Arlington has increased ninefold in just ten days. This is all with extremely limited testing resources. We need more tests and we needed them last week.

America just hit the highest number of individuals filing for unemployment in history. Unemployment insurance filings in Virginia jumped from just 2,706 last week to 46,885 this week — a 17-fold increase. People are losing their jobs and they’re losing them quickly.

The response of our community during this unprecedented health crisis has been heartening, however.

Virginia Hospital Center’s (VHC) COVID-19 testing site has gained national attention. President Obama shared the work of the Maywood Community Association’s effort to help the elderly and at-risk neighbors. Some restaurants like Good Stuff Eatery, Bayou Bakery, Medium Rare, and Good Company Doughnuts and Cafe are offering free meals to school-age kids or at-risk seniors. Arlington was the first in Northern Virginia to encourage bars/businesses to close prior to St, Patrick’s Day and encouraged the Governor to make a statewide announcement, apparently facing opposition from leadership in Fairfax County.

While our spirit remains resilient, our new normal has not yet appeared. Arlington has the second-largest coronavirus infections reported in Virginia. Virginia received 44,000 new filings for unemployment last week, and small businesses and restaurants are having to make hard decisions about their future. VHC’s drive-through testing requires a doctor’s note, which is difficult for those who are recently unemployed, uninsured, and particularly service workers who unknowingly interacted with infected patrons. Local doctors have reported turning away hundreds of patients who needed testing due to lack of tests.

My fear is that our reporting of infected persons is being vastly underreported due to a reluctance of doctors to issue a note for recommended testing because of limited testing resources.

Short Term Response: Safety

Ensuring the safety of our community always comes first. We have heard from VHC and other hospitals in the region that we don’t have enough testing.

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What’s Next with Nicole is a biweekly opinion column. The views expressed are solely the author’s.

(Updated at 2:45 p.m.) Mental health wellness is something that has unfortunately been a scapegoat or justification for a number of policy issues to become “unfixable.”

From gun violence and suicide prevention, to long-term healthcare, to test taking and education, a binding thread is a need to focus on mental health. Without the ability to change our national system, what is it that we are doing here, and what are opportunities for improvement?

At the last Civic Federation meeting, there was a panel that focused specifically on adolescent mental health. To prepare the panel, Public Safety Chair Jackie Snelling and President Sandy Newton visited over 50 people from departments and nonprofits in the county to get a comprehensive understanding of the issue.

This included Health and Human Services, Police Crisis Intervention Team, Arlington Partnership for Children, Youth & Families, Northern Virginia Alliance on Mental Illness, school counselors, in-school and out-of-school social workers, student resource officers (SROs), and students.

In-School Resources

Right now APS has an initiative to have “one trusted adult” in each student’s life. This is undeniably important, but not all trusted adults know what to do when a child is in crisis or suffering. In-school resources are imperative to connecting services to those in need. There is an interesting dichotomy that presented itself in this discussion that came from the student on the panel.

Often teachers and SROs refer students to their counselors for help. School counselors are writing your college recommendations and recommending your coursework rigor. Students seem to feel they are not a fully trusted outlet to discuss mental health struggles because of that inherent conflict of interest.

Social workers and psychologists are generally seen as more confidential, but our ratios of students to those kind of staff are very high at 1:905, and 1:1123 in high school. While school counselor ratios are expected to be decreased to 1:350 by law via HB 1508, it will not have the same impact on social workers/psychologists, which I believe to be the bigger asset for mental health assistance in our school system. It might even be helpful to rename counselors “academic advisors” and make social workers and psychologists “counselors” to properly define their roles.

Not Enough Adolescent Beds

For those in crisis, there are not enough beds for kids (or adults for that matter). There are only 99 inpatient beds including 48 beds provided by the state for adolescents in all of Virginia. Each facility is wildly over capacity and individuals in crisis often have to wait for a bed and drive far lengths to receive services.

As we look at the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) this year, it would be worth considering mental health beds and/or facilities as a public infrastructure need. Perhaps a one-stop-shop specifically for mental health to reduce barriers to getting help.

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