Missing Middle

After more speakers and a disruption, County Board takes extra day to deliberate Missing Middle

By Jo DeVoe
Arlington County Board Chair Christian Dorsey during the Tuesday, Jan. 24 discussion of Missing Middle housing (via Arlington County)

(Updated at 12:20 p.m.) Some 200 speakers and seven hours of public comment later, the Arlington County Board will decide whether to authorize hearings on a proposal to allow “Missing Middle” housing later today (Wednesday).

The request to authorize hearings on the zoning proposal was originally placed on the agenda for the Board’s Saturday meeting. After a marathon hearing on Saturday, public comment on the item carried over into the Board’s Tuesday meeting. Rather than make a decision last night, Arlington County Board Chair Christian Dorsey said members will take an extra day.

“The matter is with the Board but we’re not going to pick this up right away, colleagues, we are actually going to consider all the testimony we heard on this past Saturday and tonight — the nearly 200 registered speakers — and convene again once we are able to properly deliberate tomorrow afternoon at 4:00 p.m.,” Dorsey said at the conclusion of the meeting.

Last night’s meeting had fewer speakers than Saturday’s but featured a contentious exchange between Dorsey and an opponent of the Missing Middle proposal.

Dorsey intervened twice during the meeting, as some people objected to Missing Middle supporter Jane Green standing behind other advocates of the proposal, holding a sign so it would be visible on camera.

“We had 180 people speak on Saturday and we didn’t have any of this. We’re not going to have it with 20, alright?” Dorsey said. “Let the people speak. You can’t dictate where people stand, so let’s just continue, thank you.”

When it was Green’s turn to speak, a man moved to stand behind her and next to Adam Theo, a former County Board candidate and the co-founder of YIMBYs of Northern Virginia, an organization that supports the zoning changes.

“Sit down, please,” Dorsey can be heard saying off-screen. “This is childish, this is childish. I will clear the room. Stop it, everybody. I know tensions are high. I know everybody’s excited but we can all be grown-ups, okay? You can either sit down or you can be removed. It’s your choice.”

A man can be heard saying “No, you grow up,” in response to Dorsey. Later, he adds that the Board should “put this to a referendum and let the county vote.” (The county can hold referenda on bond issuances but a referendum on a county ordinance or policy would require authorization from the state legislature, as Virginia is a Dillon Rule state.)

A total of 17 speakers took the podium last night, including many representing organizations, thus giving them three minutes to speak as opposed to the two minutes allotted individuals speaking on their own behalf Saturday.

First up was Jon Ware, speaking on behalf of Arlingtonians for Our Sustainable Future, which opposes the measure.

Saturday embodied a lot of what frustrates folks about this process. In the week prior, the county put out 150 pages of dense materials with new zoning that goes far beyond the core specifics released only on Halloween. On Saturday, the county cut public speaking times, and talked at the people followed by the people often talking past each other.

He asserted that the people who will be able to afford the 2-3 bedroom Missing Middle housing units will mostly be white, and the county has no process or metrics to “track who gets displaced,” a mechanism that Portland, Oregon, which allows these types of dwellings, does have.

NAACP Arlington branch second vice president Bryan Coleman said the “elephant in the room” is the lack of diversity among Missing Middle opponents, especially those who are talking about gentrification and displacement.

Our residential neighborhoods have already gentrified. The average cost of a detached single-family home last year was $1.2 million. Housing in our residential neighborhoods is getting even more expensive, as 170 homes a year are replaced by McMansions. When we’re talking about displacement, we’re usually talking about lower-income residents being priced out or evicted by landlords. The claim here is different: Upzoning will somehow drive property values so high that some homeowners won’t be able to afford the increased property taxes. Neither part of that claim holds up to scrutiny.

He said it’s implausible a few dozen developments per year will cause property values to spike across the county and those who are burdened by taxes can get relief from the county’s property tax relief program.

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Arlington warns of shortened public speaking times ahead of ‘Missing Middle’ hearing

By Jo DeVoe
1/6

Proposed Missing Middle zoning code changes are set to go before the Arlington County Board for a first look on Saturday.

The Board is slated to review a request to advertise public hearings on a proposal to allow the by-right construction of duplexes, three-unit townhouses and multi-family buildings with up to six or eight dwellings on lots of up to one acre in Arlington’s lowest-density zoning districts.

The proposal includes several options for regulating the number of so-called “expanded housing option uses” (EHOs) built per year, their density and size, and parking and tree canopy coverage.

If Board members approve this request to advertise (RTA), the Arlington County Planning Commission and the County Board will have two months to pick a slate of regulatory mechanisms before holding hearings and, potentially, adopting the proposal in March.

Ahead of the request to advertise, Arlington County warned that speaking times may be shortened on account of the intense public interest in the wide-ranging changes.

“If 75 or more speakers sign up to speak on one item, speaking times will be reduced to 2 minutes for all individuals and 3 minutes for all organizations,” the announcement said. “Speakers will be notified if speaking times change.”

The County Board members adopted an ordinance allowing such time reductions last month, after droves of residents came out to speak about Missing Middle in meetings over the last year.

In addition to possibly shortening speaking times, the county will prioritize hearing from different speakers this month and in March.

“When people sign up to speak at the March public hearing, the Clerk’s staff will identify those that did not speak in January and place them first in the speaking order, followed by anyone that spoke did speak at the January hearing,” county spokesman Ryan Hudson said. “Anyone that signs up to speak will have the opportunity to do so.”

Ahead of the meeting, Missing Middle proponent group YIMBYs of Northern Virginia said this RTA has been years in the making. It says development under this plan will be as “distributed [and] gradual,” but that the county has to start somewhere.

“To further improve affordability, Arlington policymakers can revisit regulations such as height limits in the future, but they must start by legalizing up to 8 units per lot with minimal regulatory burdens, which requires maximum flexibility in the RTA,” the group said in a statement to ARLnow.

(YIMBY stands for “Yes In My Backyard,” the pro-building counterpart to the build-elsewhere-if-at-all NIMBYs, who generally reject that label.)

YIMBYs of NoVA highlighted other organizations supporting the proposal, including the Arlington branch of the NAACP, the Sierra Club and Virginians Organized for Interfaith Community Engagement (VOICE).

“Arlington faces a fundamental choice between growth and inclusion or stagnation and spiraling inequality,” the group said. “Continuing the status quo would be an unsustainable future for Arlingtonians, forcing more essential workers into long commutes and driving more young families to relocate, often to exurban sprawl.”

Arlingtonians for Upzoning Transparency (AFUT), which opposes the proposal, claims that the plan as written will:

  • Make Arlington less diverse;
  • Ignore the thoughtful views of experts and its own advisory groups;
  • Are not needed to meet the Metropolitan Washington Area Council of Governments’ (COG) goals for housing in Arlington and lack the necessary analysis and planning to begin an iterative process;
  • Leave behind low, moderate, and middle-income households — with a one bedroom unit in an 8-plex requiring a household income at 117% of AMI; and
  • Are not integrated with our interconnected priorities for transportation, the environment, and job growth.

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Morning Poll: The role of community input

By ARLnow.com
Crowd at Sunday’s anti-Missing Middle housing rally at Innovation Elementary (photo courtesy Esther Bowring)

Several hundred people gathered early Sunday afternoon at Innovation Elementary School for what was dubbed the “Reality Check Rally.”

As others were glued to their TVs for the last day of the NFL regular season and its playoff implications — or going about errands, children’s activities, or jobs — the attendees spent their afternoon hearing a dire picture being painted about the proposal to allow multifamily housing of up to 8 units per property in single-family home neighborhoods, also known as Missing Middle.

As outlined in a press release from organizers Arlingtonians for Upzoning Transparency and Arlingtonians for Our Sustainable Future, plan critics are concerned that it will “accelerate gentrification, reducing Arlington’s diversity; displace moderate-and low-income households, including seniors, persons with disabilities and renters; raise property values and taxes; reduce tree canopy and greenspace; and further overload schools, infrastructure and services.”

Of course, not everyone agrees.

A handful of Missing Middle supporters also showed up at the event, according to Patch, including those representing the Arlington branch of the NAACP. Supporters have also showed up to pivotal County Board meetings, albeit not in the numbers seen at Sunday’s rally.

Meanwhile, in November’s County Board election, the two candidates supportive of Missing Middle to various degrees — incumbent Matt de Ferranti and independent Adam Theo — took about 71% of the vote to 28% for independent Audrey Clement, who based her campaign around her opposition to Missing Middle.

The Missing Middle debate in Arlington is a particularly pitched version of debates that often play out here and elsewhere across the country, particularly when it comes to proposals to build infrastructure, build new housing, or change the physical built environment in general.

It raises the question of just how local governments should handle such opposition.

Often, opponents of such projects will make the case that their numbers, their passion, and their arguments should be enough to put a stop to what they’re protesting, or at least to grant additional time for more studies and community input. (An online petition against Missing Middle in Arlington has more than 5,000 virtual signatures.)

On the other hand, those who are supportive of building — more housing, in particular — have been saying that there is a well-formed playbook for stopping things from being built and that elected officials should not be so quick to grant those with the loudest voices and largest crowds what they want. They argue that there is a mostly silent majority that’s okay with things being built —  a group that does not have the time, desire nor, in some cases, economic ability to wage a support campaign to counter the opposition.

https://twitter.com/anniefryman/status/1584595611109576704?s=46&t=E_NtT4h8ZujirSXfWtju0A

It’s difficult to boil this very fundamental debate about the role of local government and community input — a county-specific form of which is known as the Arlington Way — into a concise poll. But today we’re going to try!

In general terms, how pivotal should community input be to county decision making, when there’s a large contingent that opposes a given proposal?

Missing Middle dominates Arlington County Board priorities for 2023

By Jo DeVoe
Newly appointed Arlington County Board Chair Christian Dorsey during the Jan. 3, 2023 organizational meeting (via Arlington County)

Missing Middle — and the ongoing side-conversation about civility this topic has prompted — are front and center for the Arlington County Board this year.

Members all opined on the potential zoning changes last night (Tuesday) during their first meeting of the year, when they also unanimously elected Christian Dorsey as the chair and Libby Garvey as the Vice-Chair for 2023.

A lot changed in 2022: Covid was a top priority this time last year but this year, the pandemic barely registered a blip at yesterday’s annual organizational meeting. Instead, increasing housing while bridging divisions in the community dominated their speeches, which are reprinted online.

Board members said they will also prioritize addressing office vacancies — a portent of this year’s uncertain economic outlook — as well as climate change and equity in the new year.

Dorsey committed to ushering in new policies to increase the supply of housing and ensure a range of prices and housing types.

Today, and during my year as Chairman, I plan to lead the community through the development of a set of housing policies to meet the challenge of this generation to make Arlington a place for young families, for seniors and for everyone in between.

I suggest that our housing policies be guided by five principles where I believe there is broad agreement:

  • First, Arlington should be open to all. Inclusive communities are dynamic and best positioned to be resilient. Barriers to entry should be identified and dismantled. This is a foundation principle.
  • Second, our planning for the future should, as always, be community based, and that means engaging all stakeholders in our community and incorporating thoughtful views.
  • Third, planning should be iterative, allowing us to course correct when necessary and evolve over time.
  • Fourth, to the greatest extent practicable, living anywhere in Arlington should not be determined by income levels. Our attention to vibrant and diverse communities should span across all our 26 square miles.
  • Fifth, planning to meet our housing goals must be integrated with our interconnected priorities of: creating transit and active transportation-oriented communities that are safe for all users, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and attracting and retaining employers that support good jobs for workers.

His vice-chair, Garvey, said Missing Middle is really a conversation about what kind of Arlington residents want, and this has sowed division and upset more people than any other issue she has worked on. (An anti-Missing Middle rally is planned this weekend, for instance.)

Think about the simple phrase, “I love Arlington.” One person says that and is thinking about our quiet, leafy neighborhoods with houses far apart. Another says the same thing, but means the lively, vibrant and noisy urban corridors. They use the same words, but they mean very different things.

To those differing views expressed with the exact same words, throw in the nature of people to hear what they expect to hear rather than what is actually said. Add to that our own government tendency to respond with more and more information, which makes it harder for a clear message to come through. Top it all off with the current climate where opponents like to demonize each other and catastrophize outcomes. Then bake it in a social media stew where misinformation, rumors and fears fly through a community. You have a recipe for a real communication trouble.

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Planning Commission votes 7-2 to advertise hearings on ‘Missing Middle’ zoning proposal

By Jo DeVoe
The Planning Commission on Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022 (via Arlington County)

A proposal to allow by-right development of “Missing Middle” housing in single-family-home neighborhoods will now head to the Arlington County Board for a first look.

A little after midnight yesterday (Thursday), the Planning Commission voted 7-2 to recommend the County Board advertise hearings on a series of proposed changes to the county’s zoning code, which would allow 2-8-unit buildings in Arlington’s lowest-density neighborhoods.

This is the next step in a years-long process to draft and potentially approve the fiercely debated plan. The County Board is expected to deliberate the request to advertise hearings as early as its meeting on Jan. 21, meaning the proposal could return to the Planning Commission and the County Board for a final vote in March.

Some who voted “nay” last night said they support this effort while others who voted “aye” indicated they may not be voting the same way in March.

“I strongly support what staff are doing and what the County Board is doing,” said Commissioner Leonardo Sarli, who voted against the advertising request. “We just need a little more time to understand what we’re signing up for and what the outcomes are going to be… I find that there’s quite a bit that’s still lacking and missing. There’s a lot left up to chance in the hope of good luck.”

Commissioner Sara Steinberger, who voted for the advertising request, said what happened last night does not necessarily reflect how she might vote in March. Commissioner Denyse “Nia” Bagley, who voted to advertise, said “I personally still am not sure that what we have in front of us now… that we’re there yet.”

Outgoing Chair Daniel Weir, who voted for the request, said he is “so thrilled to give the community the opportunity to continue this conversation.”

“I am mindful of the number of people who spoke to us on Monday, pleading with us to give them hope that they have a future in our community,” he said.

During the five-hour meeting, members of the planning body bounced around a number of recommended changes to the draft. One failed suggestion was a 4-unit cap on Missing Middle-type buildings, which the draft zoning text now calls Expanded Housing Option (EHO) dwellings.

“Notwithstanding the enormous housing crisis we face locally, regionally and nationally, I’m still uncomfortable going all the way up to six or eight units,” said Commissioner Elizabeth Gearin, who voted against the advertising request. “That’s such a dramatic change to a single-family neighborhood. Two seems very reasonable, but even our peer jurisdictions don’t know what that’s going to look like in the long term. Six to eight almost seems like a bridge too far.”

Many of these recommended changes that passed dovetailed from concerns raised by the public during Monday’s Planning Commission meeting. They are intended to promote homeowner-led development and prevent gentrification, locate 5-8-unit buildings closer to Metro, eliminate parking minimums and encourage more tree preservation.

“The many motions we’ve gone through as a group this evening are a reflection of what we heard from the community, in thinking in terms of the appropriate number of EHO dwellings could be, what we can do to protect tree canopy and other resource allocation concerns we heard from the community,” said Steinberger.

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Planning Commission hearing on Missing Middle draws nearly 100 speakers

By Jo DeVoe
Terry Arma speaks during the Planning Commission meeting Monday, Dec. 12, 2022 (via Arlington County)

In the eight years local architect Brian Harner sat on the Arlington Planning Commission, he says he never saw more than 15 people show up for a meeting.

Last night (Monday), some 90 people registered to speak on the county’s proposal to allow by-right development of buildings with two to six — or even up to eight — units in districts that are now zoned exclusively for single-family homes.

“This is a divisive issue and there’s a lot of intensity around this,” Harner said of the proposal to allow what is dubbed “Missing Middle” housing.

The meeting marked a step forward for the proposal but a final vote on whether to adopt any zoning changes is still at least three months away. Monday’s meeting was devoted to public speakers and the Planning Commission will reconvene Thursday to decide whether to approve the county’s request to advertise public hearings on the draft plan as it is currently written.

“The Commission is hearing this item tonight for the specific purpose of giving feedback to the County Board about what is and what is not within realm of consideration at hearings that would be conducted in the spring,” Planning Commission Chair Daniel Weir said. “We aren’t here tonight to solve the problem — that is the County Board’s job. We are here tonight to give the board advice and guidance on how to tee up the issues and their conversation.”

The challenge for Arlington County is to draft a policy that encourages by-right development of homes that households making less than $200,000 annually can afford and helps to undo the lasting impacts of racially restrictive zoning policies, all while managing community concerns such as parking, school and infrastructure capacity, loss of neighborhood character and tree canopy.

County planner Matt Ladd says compared to the status quo, the proposed policies may spur the construction of homes affordable to more households earning upwards of $100,000, which would “benefit greater percentages of all racial groups.” That differs from Arlington County’s current affordable housing efforts, which are targeted at those earning 60-80% or less of the area median income.

Single-family homes are currently, on average, only attainable for households earning $200,000 or more, he said. On racial equity, the county determined the Missing Middle proposal would allow more households of color to buy in or remain in four census tracts — areas that already have percentages of people of color higher than the county average of 39%.

This draft puts some decisions to the Arlington County Board, including whether to establish a cap of no more than 42 Missing Middle-type developments per year, whether to allow up to six or eight units in a building and whether the number of units should be dictated by lot size.

“We are at a crisis and we must take bold action to build a county that is affordable, sustainable and welcoming to all,” said resident Noah Higgins, advocating for no development caps or density restrictions.

Some real estate agents in attendance disputed the notion Arlington has a housing crisis.

Retired agent Diane Dunston said on Monday, 290 homes were for sale, of which 45 had three bedrooms or more and were less than $1 million.

“Are there buyers who say they can’t find a home in Arlington? Of course there are, but what they’re really saying is, ‘I can’t find a home I like,” she said.

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An AI debates Missing Middle housing ahead of tonight’s Planning Commission meeting

By ARLnow.com
Missing Middle proponents and opponents sit side by side in Arlington County headquarters on Oct. 15, 2022 (courtesy of Adam Theo)

Arlington Planning Commission is set to discuss Missing Middle housing in a blockbuster pair of meetings this week.

The first is happening tonight at 7 p.m., in the County Board room at Arlington County government headquarters (2100 Clarendon Blvd). County staff are set to give a presentation before the floor is opened to public comment from dozens of speakers.

Then, on Thursday, a second meeting is planned for members of the Planning Commission to discuss the current Missing Middle housing proposal, which has sparked a fierce community debate.

Planning Commission members are set to provide guidance, including on the scope of the Missing Middle proposal, to the County Board for its vote on advertising public hearings on the topic. That will precede additional Planning Commision and County Board votes on the final Missing Middle proposal, which are currently likely to happen at some point in early 2023.

Slide from Missing Middle Housing Study draft framework (via Arlington County)

Ahead of the meetings tonight and Thursday, of which we will have coverage the next day, we asked the GPT-3 artificial intelligence writing model to weigh in on the pros and cons of the Missing Middle issue, below, in what might be somewhat of a preview of the public comment.

Admittedly, the AI did not discuss trees, which have been a hot topic among many Missing Middle opponents.

Write an essay describing the pros and cons of re-zoning residential neighborhoods of Arlington, Virginia to permit lower density multifamily housing, such as townhouses and duplexes, also known as Missing Middle housing.

The debate over re-zoning residential neighborhoods of Arlington, Virginia to permit lower density multifamily housing, also known as Missing Middle housing, is a controversial one that has been debated for many years. On one side, there are those who argue that re-zoning residential neighborhoods to allow for the construction of Missing Middle housing represents a positive step in creating a more diverse and affordable housing market. On the other hand, there are those who oppose the idea, arguing that it will bring about changes to their neighborhood that they do not want or need. To understand the potential pros and cons of re-zoning residential neighborhoods of Arlington, Virginia to permit lower density multifamily housing, it is important to look at both sides of the argument.

The primary argument in favor of re-zoning residential neighborhoods of Arlington to allow for the construction of Missing Middle housing is that it could provide much-needed affordable housing in an area that is increasingly becoming unaffordable. In addition, it could create more diverse neighborhoods by allowing for a greater variety of housing types and styles. Furthermore, it could increase the local tax base and provide economic benefits to the area by creating more jobs and businesses. Finally, it could also help reduce traffic congestion by providing people with more options for living closer to where they work and play.

On the other hand, there are valid arguments against re-zoning residential neighborhoods of Arlington to permit Missing Middle housing. One of the primary concerns is that it could lead to an increase in traffic and congestion in the area, as well as an increase in noise and other nuisances. Additionally, some fear that it could lead to an increase in crime or an influx of renters who have little or no interest in being good neighbors. In addition, it could lead to an increase in property values, which could make it difficult for those who already own homes in the area to afford to remain there. Finally, there is also concern that it would lead to a decrease in the quality of life of existing residents, who may feel that their neighborhood is being changed in ways they do not want or need.

Ultimately, whether or not re-zoning residential neighborhoods of Arlington to permit Missing Middle housing is a good idea depends on the individual situation and the desires of residents. While there are potential pros and cons associated with this type of zoning change, it is important for local authorities to carefully consider all perspectives before making any decision.

In another preview of tonight’s rhetorical battle, the Washington Post weighed in on Missing Middle over the weekend, examining how the terminology used helps to shape the debate.

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Residential investors are especially interested in these five areas of Arlington

By Jo DeVoe
Construction on an upsized home on N. Dinwiddie Street in Halls Hill (staff photo by Jay Westcott)

In Green Valley, resident Portia Clark says she and her neighbors are bombarded with calls and letters from realtors and potential investors about buying their homes.

“We were once a very stable community of homeowners who bought our homes to live here and pay them off,” she said. That increasingly seems to be changing.

There, as in Halls Hill — also known as High View Park — homes are being changing hands as the older generation passes away and their inheritors decide to sell. Some want to buy in more affordable areas, while others cannot afford to make necessary repairs or take over the mortgages, she said.

“At one time, we were the last affordable neighborhood in Arlington to buy a house in,” said Clark, president of the Green Valley Civic Association. “Investors are buying affordable homes, to tear them down and rebuild or have been building townhomes, condos or homes they are renting out.”

Green Valley and Halls Hill — both historically Black communities — are among a handful of Arlington neighborhoods with higher investment rates, according to a home ownership report published by the county in October. The report analyzed home-ownership market trends and barriers to buying.

The county report looked at the number of home loans for investors versus the total loans lent out for every census tract in Arlington. Pentagon City and Aurora Highlands, Radnor-Fort Myer Heights and Halls Hill had investment rates exceeding 12.5%. Investor purchases made up between 10% and 12.5% of financed purchases in Green Valley and Lyon Park, while other neighborhoods had lower rates of investor interest.

Loans issued to investors in 2021 by neighborhood in Arlington (via Arlington County)

Neighborhoods like Clark’s are have lower owner-occupancy rates and higher rates of property purchased for investment purposes, but overall 86% of Arlingtonians in single-family homes are owners, according to Erika Moore, a spokeswoman for the Dept. of Community Planning, Housing and Development.

Reasons for higher investment rates vary by neighborhood, per the report. The county attributes investment in Pentagon City and Aurora Highlands to Amazon’s HQ2, and investment in Radnor-Fort Myer Heights to interest in the River Place co-op, where an expiring ground lease makes properties more attractive to investors than to individual homebuyers.

When asked if staff had any guesses as to why Halls Hill, Green Valley and Lyon Park attracted more investors, Moore said the data staff collected was unclear.

Realtor Eli Tucker says these neighborhoods all have “pockets” of less expensive properties, typically multifamily homes, and many of the investors in Arlington are builders. That tracks with Arlington’s consistent rate of homes torn down, rebuilt and sold at a premium.

Tear-down and rebuild trends since 2012 (via Arlington County)

In Halls Hill, Green Valley and Lyon Park, the less expensive options include apartments and smaller duplex and townhouse properties, which often have no or low HOA fees. These neighborhoods also attract renters.

“[These] are very good rental locations and properties, but tend to be passed over more by principal buyers,” he said. “They can generate higher return-on-investment for investors than many other locations and property types that generate a lot more competition from principal buyers.”

Owner-occupancy rates by neighborhood (via Arlington County)

As for River Place, Tucker says it attracts investors whereas most cooperatives tend to restrict investors looking for rental income. The ground lease set to expire in 2052 creates two investor-friendly conditions.

First, the timeline means fewer mortgage options, which means buyers must pay with cash, which favors investors. Second, it means unit values are going down, instead of up.

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What the election results mean for Missing Middle and minority politics in deep blue Arlington

By Jo DeVoe
1/4

(Updated at 4:10 p.m.) Arlington’s Missing Middle housing proposal has aroused plenty of passion, but the strong opposition (and support) only registered a blip in last night’s election results.

Democrat incumbent Matt de Ferranti easily won his re-election bid for the Arlington County Board, with 61% of the vote to 28% for Audrey Clement and 10% for Adam Theo. (All but one county precinct have reported results as of publication.)

Leading up to the election, Missing Middle — a series of zoning changes that would potentially allow the construction of townhouses, duplexes and 3-8 unit buildings in districts zoned for single-family homes — had become a battleground issue for candidates.

De Ferranti staked out a middle ground on the issue, supporting lower density types such as duplexes, three-unit townhomes and fourplexes, but not eight-plexes, while independent candidate Adam Theo did not support any caps on density.

Perennial independent candidate Audrey Clement opposed the plan full-stop based on concerns about its impact on the environment and county infrastructure, as well as concerns of displacement.

Proponents of the zoning change say last night’s results indicate as the support of most residents and the County Board needs to crack on with approving it.

“Arlington County voters have spoken,” said YIMBYs of Northern Virginia in a statement. “In a race that was widely seen as a de facto referendum on the Missing Middle housing proposal, 70% of voters chose a candidate who ran in support of these zoning reforms. Legalizing diverse forms of housing throughout Arlington County is not only existentially important to making the housing market function again and building a more inclusive Arlington. It is also good politics.”

The organization’s Activism Coordinator Grace White said Arlington is mostly made of renters and people who live in multifamily buildings, but they’re constrained to 25% of the land.

“To them, Missing Middle housing is a no-brainer, and necessary for them to see any kind of future here,” she said.

Opponents, like Arlingtonians for Our Sustainable Future, say the proposal has the same flaws today as it did the day before the election, and its members will continue educating voters about what those are.

“Speaking for ASF, the only way to really know in a comprehensive way what Arlington residents think on Missing Middle would be to have a referendum,” says group founder Peter Rousselot. “That would be a clear way for people to express how they feel about Missing Middle. In an election we just had where there are so many other issues being talked about, the whole impact is diluted a lot.”

How Missing Middle split voters

For George Mason University Mercatus Center senior research fellow Emily Hamilton, the results appeared to mirror Arlington’s geography.

“I’m not sure to what extent voters were focused on Missing Middle versus other issues, but it does seem that the election results followed housing typologies, with Clement doing the best in some of the least-dense parts of North Arlington and Theo doing the best in some of the densest,” she said.

“The results show that while people who are opposed to Missing Middle have been visible at public engagement sessions and with yard signs,” Hamilton continued, “most voters didn’t cast use their vote to oppose Missing Middle.”

A precinct map of Arlington County, showing the four precincts where independent Audrey Clement beat Democrat Matt de Ferranti (via Virginia Public Access Project)

Arlington County Republican Committee communications chair Matthew Hurtt says the debate split Arlington Republicans, too, with an “overwhelming majority” of the Arlington GOP opposing the proposal, but “a strong contingent” of Young Republicans supporting it.

“The Arlington GOP likely broke for Audrey Clement, while the YRs likely broke for Adam Theo,” he said.

(Theo, who has described himself as “an independent progressive libertarian,” has advocated for streamlining building permits, lowering property taxes and allowing more housing to be built.)

Despite the divide, Arlington County Democratic Committee chair Steve Baker says he hopes the problem of housing affordability can get Arlingtonians to work toward a solution.

“I think we all agree that in a county where a residential lot costs over $1 million, that housing will remain one of our key issues,” he said. “Even though some candidates tried to use our varying views to divide us, Arlingtonians voted to affirm that we can solve our biggest challenges together.”

De Ferranti echoed this sentiment last night.

“We have to tackle housing with creativity and commitment, and that means both affordable housing and housing affordability — which are related but distinct,” he said. “We need to have a civil discussion and stay engaged in the work needed to address housing affordability.”

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DEVELOPING: Democrats poised for another sweep in Arlington, though Clement claims a few districts

By ARLnow.com
1/12

(Updated at 9:30 p.m.) What many believed would be the most competitive Arlington County Board race in four years has turned out to be another convincing Democratic victory.

The three-way race between incumbent Democrat Matt de Ferranti and independents Audrey Clement and Adam Theo is, at least to some degree, a referendum on Missing Middle housing.

Clement strongly opposes the proposal to allow smaller-scale multifamily housing in neighborhoods currently zoned only for single-family homes, while Theo supports it. De Ferranti, meanwhile, staked out a middle ground, expressing opposition to the higher 8-unit end of the potential range of allowed housing types.

With 55 out of 57 precincts reporting, de Ferranti has 60% of the vote to 28% for Clement and 10% for Theo.

Both Clement and Theo ran for County Board last year, before Missing Middle came to the fore as a hot-button local issue. In the 2021 race, Democrat Takis Karantonis carried about 60% of the vote to 18% for Clement, 6% for Theo and 14% for Mike Cantwell, another independent candidate..

The Missing Middle proposal has attracted the ire of many homeowners, while a coalition of groups — from affordable housing boosters to the local chapter of the NAACP — support it.

An early look at precinct-by-precinct results shows support for Clement in Arlington’s northern, single-family home neighborhoods. The Madison district in far northern Arlington, for instance, has voted 58% for Clement to 36% for de Ferranti and 4% for Theo. She also claimed the Thrifton (Woodmont), Rock Spring, and Yorktown districts — all also in far northern Arlington.

That compares to the more renter-heavy Met Park district, in the Pentagon City neighborhood, which voted 64% for de Ferranti and 20% for Clement and 15% for Theo.  A more “in between” district — Fairlington, with its mix of townhouses and smaller condo buildings — voted 66% for de Ferranti, 23% for Clement and 9% for Theo.

Also on the ballot today were School Board and congressional races, which were even more lopsided for the Democratic candidates.

For the open Arlington School Board seat vacated by Barbara Kanninen, Arlington County Democratic Committee-endorsed candidate Bethany Sutton has 68% of the vote to 30% for independent James ‘Vell’ Rives IV.

Meanwhile, incumbent Rep. Don Beyer has 77% of the vote in the Virginia 8th District congressional race, to 21% for Republican Karina Lipsman and 1.5% for independent Teddy Fikre.

Arlington Democrats claimed victory on Twitter just after 9 p.m.

De Ferranti tells ARLnow he was impressed by the 85,000 people who voted this election, in which there was no senatorial, gubernatorial or presidential race.

“In Virginia, that doesn’t happen very often,” he said. “There are other elections where there is an even lower turnout. This is a pretty rare election, and to have 85,000 vote in this election is a pretty solid turnout.”

He said addressing climate change, investing in schools and tackling affordable housing and housing affordability — “related but distinct” issues — will be key priorities this term.

“I’m grateful to Arlington residents for the chance to serve them,” he said. “I love doing this job and I’m humbled, grateful, and looking forward to serving over the next four years. I’m going to try and live up to Arlingtonians: that means being smart, thoughtful and compassionate, caring about our community and being forward-looking.”

Clement told ARLnow she was dismayed with the results, though she won four out of 54 districts — including Madison, with her 22-point margin — and came within just over 1% of the vote in another.

“I didn’t perform as well as I thought I would,” she said. “I thought I would push 40% — the sentiment I got on the street indicated a better showing.”

(more…)

Voting is underway in Arlington County, with housing issues unofficially on the ballot

By Jo DeVoe
1/8

Election Day is here, and thousands of residents are hitting the polls — manned by 426 volunteers — to cast their ballots in the 2022 mid-term election.

By 9 a.m., about 10% of Arlington voted in-person, according to the county elections office, in addition to the 13% of people who voted early and in-person and 7% who voted by mail.

“The polls have been steady so far this morning,” said Tania Griffin, spokeswoman for the Arlington Office of Voter Registration and Elections.

Turnout in a midterm is typically about half the turnout of a presidential election, Arlington Director of Elections Gretchen Reinemeyer previously told ARLnow.

Just over 20,000 people voted early in this year’s general election, Griffin said. Combined with the more than 11,000 absentee ballots sent in, Virginia Public Access Project says Arlington’s early voting rate surpasses those for Northern Virginia and the state. (Nearly 5,000 have not returned the mail ballots they requested.)

Early voting rates in Arlington, the region and the state (via Virginia Public Access Project)

In 2018, the last midterm election, 21,147 ballots were cast early, per VPAP.

While early voting got off to a muted start to in September, and was “slightly slower” than last year’s election, local and statewide Democrats celebrated early voting numbers yesterday during a rally at the home of Matt de Ferranti, the Democrat Arlington County Board incumbent running for re-election.

“The trends are positive, particularly in the three parts of the state that have really competitive congressional districts. We see high numbers, and we really see good Democratic advantage in the early vote,” said U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who came out for the rally. “We really like what we’re seeing.”

In the local U.S. House race, Arlington voters can choose among Democrat incumbent Rep. Don Beyer and his two challengers for the 8th District, Republican Karina Lipsman and independent Teddy Fikre.

Kaine said one top driver for races this year is the economy, which he characterized as a mixed bag.

“You have inflation but you have historic job growth. Inflation might make you worry if there’s a downturn coming, but then you see how strong job growth is — during Biden’s term, 10 million-plus jobs, manufacturing coming back, big job announcements with Amazon,” he said. “I think the evidence will be mixed.”

Among the countywide races, voters can choose between two School Board candidates — independent, Sun Gazette-endorsed James “Vell” Rives IV and Arlington County Democratic Committee-endorsed Bethany Sutton.

In Arlington, the most watched race this year is likely that for County Board, which has become a showdown on the topic of Missing Middle housing — the proposal to open up single-family zoning to smaller-scale multifamily housing.

De Ferranti said that could have driven the relatively higher early voting showing.

“The early vote we’re seeing is so stepped up that we’ll have to see what the total turnout is,” de Ferranti said. “This is greater turnout than 2018 so far, and I think some of that is the discussion we’re having on housing.”

His challengers for County Board — frequent independent candidate Audrey Clement and second-time candidate Adam Theo — say Missing Middle is a litmus test this election.

“After squeezing in last minute doorknocking yesterday, and all the responses I’m receiving this morning at precincts, I’m feeling very optimistic for the campaign and the success of the Missing Middle housing proposal,” Theo told ARLnow.

(more…)

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