No racial or ethnic group in Arlington comes close to earning enough household income to afford median priced single-family homes in Arlington, and some groups struggle to afford median-priced condominiums, according to new data.
Even the county’s white population, which has by far the largest median household income, is “nowhere near” being able to afford median priced single-family housing, said Keith Waters of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.
He was speaking at the Oct. 9 meeting of the county’s Housing Commission, laying out a somewhat bleak affordability picture while saying Arlington still has done better than some communities in addressing housing shortages.
Based on Center for Regional Analysis data, the minimum household income needed to purchase a median priced home in the current market is:
- $332,876 for single-family homes
- $252,347 for townhouses
- $132,224 for condominiums
Median household income in the county by race/ethnicity currently stands at:
- $173,878 for white households
- $154,556 for mixed-race households
- $125,870 for Asian households
- $105,275 for Hispanic households
- $89,570 for Black households
From a statistical standpoint, “none of the median household income of any racial group can afford the median single-family home [and] none of the racial groups can afford the median townhome,” Waters said.
Though sobering, the information was welcomed by Housing Commission chair Kellen MacBeth.
“It’s helpful to know what the landscape is looking like,” he said.
The scenarios assume a 20% down payment, typical taxes and insurance costs, and residents spending no more than 30% of gross income on housing. The calculations don’t take into account the ability of some homeowners to roll over past housing profits into their next home.
Much of the data also precede this year’s federal-government and contractor layoffs. So far, the Arlington housing market has seen only modest impacts, with the per-square-foot cost of recent home sales declining but still at $500. Even with declines over the past year, that figure remains among the highest in the region.
The average sales price of single-family attached homes in the county recently surpassed $1.8 million, in part because of general housing inflation and in part due to older, smaller homes being torn down and replaced with larger properties available to those with the means to purchase them.
The Mason analysis suggests Arlington’s total households will grow 17% to more than 155,000 by 2025. The bulk of that growth will be in the rental segment, with the percentage of rental properties growing from 59% of total properties now to 64% in a quarter-century’s time.
While Arlington has limited land area for significant increases in single-family homes, the growth in multifamily housing stock has been “incredibly steady” in recent years, MacBeth said.
But Jason Schwartz, another commission member, said more needs to be done to broaden options across the economic spectrum.
“It’s just incredibly frustrating,” he said of challenges related to constructing more housing.
Schwartz brought up another issue — that of seniors aging in place in the homes they have owned for years.
With children grown, they are now “one- or two-[person] households that are in a three-, four- or even five-bedroom [home] — more bedrooms than people,” he said.
Schwartz said he wasn’t advocating for removing those property owners against their wishes.
“Obviously we’re not going to say, hey, we’re going to kick you out of your home to a studio or one-bedroom [apartment] if you’re a senior,” he said.
But Schwartz did seem to suggest making residents aware of their options when situations like those arise.
“We need to make it so we’re [taking] a balanced approach,” he said.
